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FYI -
https://docs.publicnow.com/viewDoc?hash_primary=6284D09D9F75FD4E01273F34DE955F896153ADA5
Link above is a new Creo market presentation from the following: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CREO-MEDICAL-GROUP-PLC-32411263/news/Creo-Medical-Corporate-Presentation-Q3-2022-42273271/
they don't give enough information with the partnership deals in order to help us determine where they are. Everything is really opaque, which isn't great in any circumstance, but especially not in a market like this and the share price seems to be suffering the consequences. Appreciate deals are sensitive in nature, especially if they are still negotiating others, but they haven't even told us if there has been any upfront payments (which could negate the need for a fundraise).
The lack of transparency is really frustrating, if they don't want to tell us the exact royalties they could at least say "low single digit to low double digit tiered royalties", give a total for milestone payments if they don't want to list them individually and an idea of partnership length so we can get an idea of when we expect to start seeing results. The pharma companies manage to give this level of information when they announce deals, not sure why Creo can't.
The figures don't seem to make sense but they are ploughing on with partnership deals and hype. Could be that they believe their technology to be so impressive that they expect to be bought up by a big player for the product conceptual value?? If this is the plan, then just how clever is the kit and how well is IP protected and how hard to copy????
Something is very wrong at Creo. In the middle of Covid, when sales growth was non existent due to hospital restrictions, the remuneration committee awarded the top brass extraordinary bonuses. A bad bad sign. After a share price collapse of more than 75% the company announces an investor presentation. Where? Chepstow! So the two main men couldn’t be bothered to come to London. Incredible. Then at the presentation no mention of the cash crisis. And a sales forecast showing growth over the next three years from £30m to £35 to £40. Basically a prediction of the company’s demise, because if that is all they can manage with 300 employees and a suite of ground breaking products then they are going under. Cash will be gone in 6 months and the next raise will need to be huge. With a sp of 40p it doesn’t even bear thinking about. Yet no sign of urgency, either these guys are resident on another planet or they have some colossal trick up their sleeve. Unfortunately I think it’s the former!
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/996258/creo-medical-gets-more-validation-with-second-robotics-deal-says-broker-996258.html
redduk.....no idea m8,not looked
Isnt creo out of cash ? With £26m on the balance sheet at half year, ebitda losses of £11m plus then capex (and r&d if capitalised) , they can't have much left come December? The company needs to update and provide forecasts.
800% increase from core activities in 12 months is pretty impressive. I see no reason for the exponential growth not to continue.
I think today's rns makes my point - core revenue is £0.9m, that's it. Now you can see why they had to spend our money on existing businesses so they could show some turnover.
Not clear what you mean by "acquisition based turnover" Redduke. Last year most of the revenue was attributed to major purchase Albyn, but they were acquired nearly two years ago now, and there have been other acquisitions. Difficult to strip out every acquisition and account separately, since most of them will be rapidly integrated. Anyway, it all counts, and if an acquisition is earnings enhancing, that's sound business. The revenue "surge" is promising, and plenty of good looking growth numbers, but the loss continues to increase, so once again, it's jam tomorrow folks. Market seems to like it though, probably impressed by the robots.
It is underhand to compare this years FY sales inclusive of acquisition based turnover vs last year which is excludes it.
This is why like for like or inorganic and organic comparisons need to be used in accounting standards.
Management are supposedly pursuing partnerships as well as acquisitions, but the market clearly lacks confidence in the strategy.
The latest trading statement said "Revenue from the Company's core Creo product portfolio is growing and is in-line with management's cumulative revenue forecasts at the time of IPO in December 2016." That sounds convoluted. It comes across as if they are having to aggregate 6 years worth of revenue in order to find something positive to say? I can't find any such forecast so it is not clear what this statement actually means (if anything). IIRC last years revenue from core products was the first ever anyway, so "growth" from such a small base is meaningless until they put actual numbers on it. In all likelihood it's going to be modest.
It is a worry that the SP has drifted so far South and there are a few things that do concern me. Creo is first and foremost a technology company. Amongst the management there is very little what I would call true sales and production expertise, people who have dedicated their life to mass manufacturing surgical instruments or marketing to GP's, hospitals, consultants. Mars is the perfect company. It has a modest office just off a roundabout on the A3 and all it does is manage a load of outsourcing contracts and patrol quality and cost. It does not manufacture, it does not market, it does not distribute. And why would it? There are people out there and that's all they do. Creo have gone for what I think is an outdated and scrappy approach. They are trying to do everything themselves with some expertise bought in (expensively) through acquisition. Undoubtedly they are going to make a lot of mistakes and incur considerable delays with this approach. The published sales figures are flattering because they are not core sales. There are too many lightweight hangers on, some of them incredibly well paid. I don't like the acquisitions personally and in a Covid year where lots of plans had to be put on hold the remuneration committee thought it was fair and reasonable to pay the main men a bonus of 75% of salary for doing there job and because of the brilliant acquisitions a transactional bonus of 100% of salary in cash plus a further bonus of 100% of salary in share options. So in a pretty lousy year Craig Gulliford takes home his £280,000 salary and £770,000 bonus and Han**** and Rees not far behind him. Total bonuses over 1.0% of market cap! I sold out the major part of my shareholding at an average just under £2.00 but sadly I have a big chunk still left and I really don't like the direction the company has taken the last 24 months. I think they need a new dynamic been there done that chairman with the skill to get the company back on track, take what I believe are genuinely outstanding products, outsource, get the real sales going, harness the technology before it is outdated and something even better comes along...from someone else.
True machiismo. With revenue ahead of targets and a marked SP spike, it looked like the tide had turned, but two months later that now looks like a blip. The long decline started more than a year ago and the SP has more than halved.
Although revenue is rising, it doesn't seem to be fast enough for the market, with losses still forecast for the foreseeable future. The products look like winners, eventually, but investors have already waited 'long term' to glimpse breakeven. The company dutifully talks about commercialisation, and has taken significant steps to achieve that, but investors want to see more visibility on the likely proximity of a breakeven point. At present it is opaque, and there may be a suspicion that management still seem far more interested in the technology than financial health?
Optimists might view the most recent numbers as indicating the mere foothills of a steep revenue hike which is likely to continue for years, coupled with an increasingly attractive entry point, but they probably need a couple more outstanding sets of results to convince the market it is finally happening.
Nope, seems the bottom ain't here yet..
So it turned out the bottom came on 1st Feb @ 118p - less than half of Edison's valuation from three months ago.
No-one called it, so you all get null point, and the winners are all the newcomers piling in ( :
Another bounce this afternoon to 150p and hopefully beyond.
Looks like people have been reading this one wrong, seeing the purchase of Albyn as an expensive smokescreen. As I said 4 months ago, when the SP was much higher, revenue is growing, from organic sources as well as from the acquisition, and ALL of it counts. To my mind the company is stronger than it was when the SP went above £2 in every one of the four previous years, and the logical outlook is growing revenue and positive newsflow continuously for the foreseeable future.
Not sure what you’re reading but considering the company was only aiming for £23m this year and £25m in 2022, but has already achieved its 2022 forecast in 2021, I’d say that announcement is pretty informative. Going from £0 forecasts 2016, 2017, 2018 to outperforming at £25m in 2021 is astounding…. It does not surprise me that they just raised £36m in very difficult market conditions for everyone else…
Nice to see an update dealing with my query. IMHO this is a nice slow burner with management pressing on on various fronts. We’ll done to Creo.
In my view the RNS is exceptionally light on detail. This makes it largely valueless.
Anyone have any information as to how Creo are doing. I appreciate the price drift down is probably just lack of interest but if anyone thinks different I’d be interested to hear.
Edison initiated coverage of Creo Medical last month. They value the company @ 240p based mainly on the CROMA platform. "Creo Medical products are in a large and lucrative market. Conmed estimates the GI endoscopic technologies market is approximately $3.0–3.2bn with the RF energy-based surgical device market at $2.7–2.9bn per year."
Recent fundraising to accelerate commercialization seems to have soured sentiment, and is probably the reason the SP has been heading south for a few months now, but unless Edison are drastically wrong, a turn seems inevitable soon. Anyone want to call the bottom, or are we already there?