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Cash was king when the alternative was watching your stocks plummet as most people have done in recent years. Smallcaps and AIM have been a bloodbath, and large caps haven't done much better with a few exceptions.
Just to show additional workings here Xenor... Based on inflation rate of 8.75% YoY, estimated spending power of a £15k sum of money after 1yr of inflation at that rate = £13,793.10 - Cash was most certainly not King during that quoted period... and we know it's worse than this example because it didn't stop there... beyond May 2023 inflation continued to remain very elevated and is still yet to return to the 2% BoE target.
Respectfully I don't agree Xenor, for a long while getting finance has been mega simple and inflation has eaten away at the debt. I took a £15k loan in May 2022 at 2.9%... between May 2022-23 the CPI rate was a massive 8.7% and inflation carried on gobbling up my debt nicely beyond that too. Conversely... had I stuck 15K in a bank bond or savings acct in May 2022 it'd have paid me a miserly 1.5-2% for 1-2yrs... so inflation would have eroded my spending. I was far better off taking the debt out.
"I think we're now beginning to enter a period in which 'Cash will become king'"
I have been hearing that for the past few years. Cash already is king. We're waiting for that to end.
CPI is approaching my target buy of low 12s but I see nothing to suggest that it won't keep falling in the short term. It may bounce to 13p before falling again but not worth the risk of a 4% gain.
Makes sense you see value at 12.50p broomtree - I too was eyeing a similar price point to enter with a long position but the more I look across the wider Piste the more precarious it's all looking... CPI has heavy reliance on Gov contracts... a Gov that's fast racing towards holding a £3trillion debt mountain with lacklustre growth underpinning it all. Gov is already seeking out spending cuts and trimming of contracts could well leave CPI unable to keep the wheels turning imo.
While given the trend it could certainly hit 12p but for me it hit my target buy at 12.50 so tentative trading position
I'm unsurprised to see CPI firmly in the 12p range... Unfortunately, it really doesn't help the wider UK economy has now accumulated many risks... with property prices, a bellwether ignored at ones peril, clearly in retreat.
Sellers will not drop and buyers look to be digging in for what could prove to be a significantly painful war of attrition with unexpected fallout... BoE looking like it'll come far too late to the rescue.
I think we're now beginning to enter a period in which 'Cash will become king'. Can CPI survive this fast brewing, and potentially violent storm?
ONS GDP data release this morning left the previously released provisional figures as 'unrevised'. The proves UK fell into recession. Source here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/octobertodecember2023
Meanwhile the house price data released is interesting, bit of a mixed bag it seems, with reports of good demand and higher asking prices... however, that's just asking prices and the real sales data won't be available from land registry for some time yet. IMO I think sellers are pricing homes too high, icould well mean a stalemate occurs between 'sellers unwilling to drop' and buyers 'unwilling to raise the offer'... with Bellway recently reporting 60% drop in new build purchases I'd say it's a market locked on for a 2-7% fall in average house prices this year.
BoE today says: "UK households and businesses have so far been resilient to the impact of higher interest rates"... "But some are likely to struggle with higher borrowing costs – in particular, those firms in parts of the economy most exposed to a slower growth, or with a large amount of debt."
Given overall UK economic growth is nigh on non-existent (GDP shrank late 2023) and debts are large for many (businesses + individuals). Imo BoE comment today is a blatant oxymoron. The revised UK economy figures being released by ONS tomorrow will be very interesting!
General ftse index weakness has held SP's for many companies down in recent years. Lackluster growth and generally weak state of UK PLC does get reflected and CPI SP is not immune from wider market trends.
@Trenners imo we are hoping for a big contract before June and some excellent strategy input in June . It’s not a long time. Plus obviously some further meat on the bones of the 100m cost reduction .
@Savage
I can't see how either of those events will send Capita back into the 12s given we've already been driven so low by irrational sellers.
13.63p is the key area now - if we can break that then we should move upwards - possibly into the 14s
Back in the 12p zone today/tomorrow I reckon with this... ONS release some UK economic data revisions tomorrow and the housing market looks to be stuck in a rut despite delusional positive spin being peddled by the majority of the press these past few months.
In the 12p zone, this should help with SP stability what with buyers now getting a fair price for the current risk levels.
Reduction in staff numbers is down to both sell offs and cost reductions! Last count in December was 42k there have been staff reductions since then with more to come later this year!
Capita will start rehiring new staff when they prepare for the new service offerings (Different skillsets)!
DYOR
Is the reduction in staff numbers not as a result of the disposals, as companies are sold, the employees of them leave too?
Good Morning all not pay much attention to Capita last week or 2. A few RNS through I see and the CEO bought 2 Traches of shares with Directors following suit. The RNS on vesting buyout is carried on from AH's old job on missed wages it seems normal. The number of employees I notice of Capita is falling. In 2022 the number of people working was 50,000 on Capita's recent RNS it is 43,000. They seem to be losing a few employees through natural wastage not replacing them. The A. I implementation within the organization seems to be ongoing with Amelia.ai (Conversational AI and Generative AI ). The Capital Market event on 13 June 2024 seems to be a point to which many people will be interested.
I hear you Xenor.
Thing is NoFear where it is "heading" keeps getting pushed back. Remember the discord ramps of March 2022 of sell at 49p after it bottomed at 22p? How wrong were those predictions? I had thought H1 2024 might be the turning point but following that set of results I'm not expecting that any more. I am fairly confident that this will not see 20p again this year, but it may do next year. I think it will range between 12-17p for a while.
You shouldn't worry with your average, but there's many others here higher than that nursing big losses who are stuck hoping this turn around eventually happens. If it does, it's a Cineworld style rise when it multi bagged from 20p to 120p. That's what I want to catch, but I don't want more money sat around doing nothing for years as has happened elsewhere. In the short term it's a trading share. Buy in the 12/13s, sell in the 15/16s.
There's no reason to expect any imminent upside. New lows don't mean it's a bargain, or at the bottom, if it ever does turn, it 'could'v be a multi bagger, but no guarantees
Hmm, never underestimate Capita’s ability to eff things up.
Wasn’t expecting a great reaction to the result as we largely knew what to expect but very surprised to see it fall this low with the new guy buying twice.
Needs to establish some firm support and there might be a decent 25-50% trade in it but don’t expect to see much over low 20’s before results
But Xenor,
You can clearly see where Cpi is slowly heading. All if not most of the fear factor has already been priced in and I guess the nasty stuff has been brought out and the stock market has dealt the outgoing and new Ceo plus the BoD a nice lesson not to take them for Fool's which Jon Lewis has and had done for far too long.
I like what I'm seeing and looks like cpi is getting ready to retake slowly but surely the 14,15,16p lost territories.
ADVFN latest trading volumes.
That's what looks to be the correct results. But please take it with a pinch of salt.
6,443,361 as Buys.
6,343,198 as Sells includes the UT
23,960 as unknown trades.
Best of luck everyone
NoFear, I missed my 13p entry last week. I'm currently travelling so it's a bit difficult to catch prices when the markets open at 2am. I didn't want to set a buy order because I prefer to make the call myself. Sometimes it looks like it will go lower.
Biggest lesson I have learnt with investing is to time entries better. Nearly every share I have bought has dropped following the buy, whether immediately or weeks or months later. Most recently I bought MMAG at 8.7p in January thinking it was a steal at that price... look at it now. You are doing the same with CPI. Falling knife investment decisions. Tread carefully.
Just seen at 15:50:18 time an entry for 1,000,000 cpi shares apparently as a 'sell' on ADVFN.
On the London Stock Exchange Capita trades recap its showing as a off-trade