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Yeah, i understand that. I think I'm fortunate in my perspective that I'm loading up at the lowest its been in a long time. For those recently buying in the 1p Zone, you'd feel very aggrieved. The THAR and green Hydrogen projects look like the ones that could be company makers, especially from £8m MCAP. But i got in for the Gold, NZ especially with a proven track record of a substantial amount of low grade Gold, with further results drilled with Oracle. Jundee East, we have to wait and see
I've spoken to Mark fairbairn from Stockbox who said he'll try and get Bert on at some point soon which will hopefully be encouraging. It's easy to forget sometimes that if on schedule, the DFS will be completed within the next 4-6 weeks whilst in the meantime we'll continue to recieve results from the remaining holes at Sanankoro. It'll be interesting to see what the lead time on some of the mine equipment will be, once construction is allowed to begin, and also with that, the timeframes estimated before Production can begin
AG - good points re Cora. I'm afraid, I cannot bring myself to view ORCP as anything other than a dog. IMO a lifestyle company, where the CEO has zero track record of having actually delivered on anything, and already up to 3 billion shares. When you study each RNS, or track progress over a few years, there's very little actual and concrete progress, something that you can actually put your finger on, as opposed to the never ending promise of jam tomorrow. I prefer to see projects with timelines and milestones, so you can track the progress being made, and have an idea when the value inflection points will arrive. In the meantime, the MO is always the same over there for me, a jam tomorrow RNS or Director Buys when it falls, cue ramps by certain posters, sucking in some buying, which is then sold into by the insiders, repeat ad nauseum. However, the gold project they have is in a different category, you can't really ramp or spin progress for such a project, because the exploration to discovery pathway is well known to investors, so they know what is required and can track the progress, the funding required and the drill bit can't lie. But I know and respect the fact that you have a different view and so good luck over there (but do be careful if its a large investment as opposed to a speculative punt).
Although I do have a position in Oracle Power, but the case for that investment goes beyond just Gold
I know sometimes you don’t want to use a company as a benchmark because you sometimes feel you can go beyond what they reached. But Shanta really is a good start. Not that long ago they had a MCAP between £150-£200m. I strongly believe that can be replicated with Cora
Yeah, I just got to a point where I was sick of companies raising millions, with no Resource to show, and very low grade Gold in the ground, if anything. Africa doesn’t have the investment pull that Western Australia has, but there’s certainly not a lack of Gold
When those particular companies raise capital or secure equity through a variety of means, and your filled with confidence that money will be well spent, that’s the kind of investment I want. Reassurance that the £m’s in the bank will go towards growing your deposits, and increasing your production foot print. Cora’s recent results. 31 out of 38 holes returning Gold, a number having significant intersections. We have that here, we have that at Caracal. Plenty to think about and targets to tick off, but I currently wouldn’t swap either of them for a micro cap company in Australia, Canada or America.
I’m always on the hunt, but I’m far more reserved now. Im
Not stubborn. If I stumble across a company in one of those jurisdictions really delivering, I may execute a position. But I look at ecr, and especially wsbn, and there’s just not much you can hang your hat on. Especially the latter, with drilling to commence soon, they’re in a similar position now, to what they were over 12 months ago. Great SP movement this week, but it’ll remain volatile for a while. Assays will be months off
The dilution at GCAT does get you thinking. But the end results will be a significant increase in production, and well over 1Moz of Gold added to group resources with Tanzania. Substantional long term
Same with Cora, and it’s term sheet and it’s ambitions to turn Sanankoro into a Mine which could have a lifespan beyond 10-15 years. That is enormous, with high grade pay dirt to feed it. Get production going, and target new discoveries. I have a feeling the company will use Selin first for production. Some very high grade veins to zone in on, to help with margins once production begins. But those zones will need replacing over the years and I believe we have the asset for that. If you don’t replace your better mined ground, you get into scenarios we’ve seen at hummingbird and sometimes Shanta were AISC can and will rocket up, only to be saved by a strong POG
I’ve got an exit price in mind here. It could come within 12 months, but will likely take 2-3 years, maybe longer but I’m willing to wait that out. And if Cora, target discoveries and mines beyond Sanankoro, this could be a generation investment for myself. 5-10 years, but il assess along the way.
Yes, agree with all of that AG. I think it will be a close race as to which of them gets to 50Koz, I wouldn't want to call it. When I first bought CGAT (following your tip btw), the only hesitation that I had at that stage really was the number of shares already in issue (1.6 billion). Generally, I try to avoid companies with that many shares in circulation - often the characteristic of (diluted) dog shares. But the fundamentals look solid and I thought they were fully funded following the placing. So it looked like a good entry point and I made an initial investment. As it now turns out, there is likely to be more funding required, and as you say, more payment in shares when certain milestones are reached. So the dilution/total number of shares in issue that will results from all that is a negative/concern for me. Now that RM has mentioned the need for a raise, whatever the posters on the bb think, it will affect buying for the reason you have stated - i.e. what price will the next raise be carried out?
This brings me on to the issue of TIMING. If the next placing at GCAT will mean that finally and definitively, they will be fully funded to get to 24Koz at Killi, then those entering on that placing will have that clear runway, that I thought I was getting when I entered on the last placing.
In terms of timing of Cora, it has not been easy to remain on the side lines. Heart v Head. But, I've always had a firm view on how the Term Sheet would play out, which I openly shared on here not long after it was announced (for anyone who cared to listen, rather than criticise me for it, as it wasn't very palatable). So far, it has played out exactly in accordance with those expectations. What remains, is to see where the share price will end up when DFS is issued in the next few weeks. What will be the forces at play during this period, whose interests will win through in the buying and selling?
So in terms of timing Cora, I have long been of the view that the Term Sheet represents the 'safest' point of entry FOR ME, but to keep this under review and see what happens. Initially, this was simply about getting the best share price and not being undercut by the Term Sheet placing. But now, its become more than that for me, in that I want to be sure that the Term Sheet funding goes ahead as planned (and is not impacted by jurisdictional/geopolitical issues and inflation). So I'm waiting for news/update from Cora about all this, which I hope we get when the DFS is issued.
I would hope that with the existing funding and the Term Sheet £25 million, Cora will be fully funded for Sanankaro, but the DFS should set all that for us. As always, all imo and DYOR.
The positive is that everyone seems to be in the same boat with Cora, with a longer term view in mind. They certainly have the ground, a tiny MCAP, a route to production and vast amount of room to expand resources for the foreseeable. More than many of its peers have
And yeah LW, i think the difference with you is that your invested with GCAT, and your not invested here, yet. but there's no right or wrong answer and as you say, you've vented your shortcomings over on the other board, as you would. It'll be interesting to follow both. Will Cora hit 50,000 oz per annum before Caracal do. Both are set to grow, just a bunch of financing & CAPEX to contend with along the way
In terms of Cora, because of its asset, it should always have some kind of "retention value" allocated with it, with all of the growth over the last couple of years. With a £20m MCAP now, if it drops from here, for me it provides a unique opportunity to
1) Increase my allocation
&
2)Lower my average in doing so
Whether the term sheet will provide available funds for continued exploration while the Mine is being constructed, or whether BM has to come to market again, who knows. But once the term sheet is triggered, there's that clear pathway to look forward to a very successful and bright future.
While I do agree with LWs logic in relation to the term sheet, what matters more to me as a long term holder is 1: Gold in the ground & 2: Management Team.
Number 1 is increasing and that makes me very happy and number 2 I feel are good. Last years drills and how it was managed was really good imo. I've seen and been in many a explorer but that was one of the most polished drill campaigns I've seen in a long time.
So yes, I'd love a higher SP right now, but truth is I wasn't planning to sell now anyway, so while nice on paper, its more about set up, potential, management etc and what that could mean 2 or 3 years from here, which at present I feel makes Cora an attractive investment.
AG - completely agree with your 12:15 post re Cora and GCAT. Although people don't like to hear it sometimes, you will know that I have been raising the financing situation over there as well, not as a de-ramp (I'm invested and underwater), but as explanation/context to people's queries/anxieties of why the GCAT share price isn't performing to expectations. Timing can be important. NONE of us would buy shares if we got wind of a placing/financing, so when it comes to our existing investments, we can't really expect new investors to buy, and for the share price to increase either. So that's the first point. How I view it more generally is that we need favourable macro conditions for gold companies (sector sentiment, POG, investment/funding into projects) and jurisdictional stability. Then its where the company is on the Lassonde Curve - you have the discovery phase, where everyone gets excited and buys the shares. Then once the dust settles on the discovery, you get the harder question/phase of how the discovery will be financed to production. For AIM explorers, this nearly always involves an element of equity raises, so significant dilution, but value accretive in the longer run. In terms of my current assessment of both companies, taking Cora first:
1) The project is simply outstanding and has huge potential, no question about that. BUT:
2) The jurisdictional issues are more of a concern to me now than they were last year, more so because of Russia, rather than the military coup. If Russian targets Malian mining assets, you can see the West hitting back with sanctions.
3) The Term Sheet is therefore important for two reasons: a) Because the backing of £25 million from large investors will restore/affirm confidence that the project is going ahead as planned notwithstanding the jurisdictional issues, b) the mechanics of the Term Sheet are preventing share price growth. Therefore, we need this Term Sheet to be done and dusted before we can expect to see growth imo. It will give us a clear(er) runway for growth.
4) I am mildly concerned about the extent of the dilution represented by the Term Sheet (would have preferred more debt than equity). But we don't have billions of shares here already, and as you say, having the funding is more important and will outweigh the dilution.
5) I am mildly concerned about the intentions of the large Term Sheet interests. After this Term Sheet is done, they will have more than 50% of the issued share capital of Cora. I don't know whether the Takeover Code will apply, and whether they will takeover (and if so, with a low ball offer). Any views on this appreciated, as its not something we have discussed much.
6) Overall view re Cora: we really need the Term Sheet to happen and my overall investment case for Cora hinges on it happening.
I'll turn to GCAT next.
I held Jubilee Platinum shares for 6 years before the multiplied out at 7 times purchase price. Ideally this share will follow a similar path one day. Here for the long term.
LW - I think the only Comparison i have right now with all of this, is our investment over at Caracal
Although it's not officially wrapped up and packaged as a "term sheet", the outcome over there is a similar situation. The end goal for both companies is to increase the current production rates, and get to production in the first place. But with that, shareholders will be faced with dilution, from numerous angles.
and although it's been on my mind over at GCAT, I'm invested because of its long term strategy, as i know you feel similar.
But you only have to look at the last placing, at 0.0095, over a 20% discount to the daily price there. Will the next one be as hard hitting?
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GCAT/appointment-of-joint-broker-clarification-njmq61t0tipha0p.html
There are still chunky payments (shares)to be made for both Tanzanian assets when certain milestones are met, leading to more dilution. Also, when they increase production to 24,000 oz per annum that'll be an enormous achievement for the company and margins moving forward, but then to increase that to long term aspirations of 50,000 oz per annum, (so double), it's going to take an awful lot of investment, as you know RM already stating he'll be coming to market. Then when it comes to drilling in Tanzania, additional funds will need to be made available for this purpose.
Do you have similar concerns over with GCAT, because as i look at it, at both investments, that's definitely the one that plays on my mind with long term dilution for shareholders and hundreds of millions of shares being issued, possibly over 1B. Like already mentioned, I'm in because i like the long term strategy, the reserves, the resources and production opportunities. But there are many, many hurdles over there to navigate. With Cora, after the term sheet, i see a much more clearer pathway to shareholder value and generating it
Both long term, have tremendous potential, but will need financing quite significantly in order to put them in that position, with Cora targeting 50,000 oz from the start
Would like to hear your thoughts on this, as always
**Apologies for talking about GCAT, i think just think both companies are in similiar positions
Bigun2 - It's a slow burner thats for sure. But I've seen this move fast, and traded along the way with World class results. I'm still of the same mindset that the same can happen. The Term sheet has no set barrier that it needs to remain at 7p, because of the discounted Equity up and coming. It could race to 16p, it just means those funding the term sheet get in at 13p. There's just this negative feeling for whatever reason towards this share and its far more important for think beyond the next couple of months for benefits of my investment here
We're doing this to death again, and it seems since yesterdays announcement, more doubts are creeping in
It was a GOOD announcement, they've found MORE gold, with more to come. It's certainly not deterred my outlook here. the reaction could have been better, but the story remains the same.
Without the term sheet, Sanankoro has no future. I haven't got millions to finance it so those who have, if they get a discount, so be it. I'm, ready to average down if i can, but long term goals of multiples of this MCAP remain the same
IMO, this is simply down to the mechanics and psychology created by the Term Sheet, and the fact that people know they will be able to buy large volumes of Cora shares at a 10% discount to the current share price. So why would they buy now is probably the logic/thinking of most? The DFS is due next month, and will lock in the 10% discount (to whatever the share price is next month). It's not a long wait, but will give everybody a likely placing price and a benchmark to work from. They can then decide whether they want to buy in advance of the Term Sheet or during it.
The main risk to this waiting strategy was newsflow being released before the DFS, which then increased the share price in advance of the DFS, resulting in a higher placing price. Well that risk is seemingly gone after the results failed to lift the share price?
So, as we have already discussed, the Term Sheet needs to be concluded first, in order to then release the current handbrake on the share price? All imo and DYOR.
this is a long term bet not a get rich quick one!
you either trade...which is what is happening now, or build up your stock slowly over the next year or so.
Traders/mm's sell stock to reduce the price which entices other shareholders to sell, then buy the cheap stock when the sp settles. This buying will then entice shareholders back into buying the stock increasing the sp until it settles then sell and the cycle repeats. Pump and dump is one name for this...
Longer term this stock, imo, will multi-bag, possibly +10x, over the next few years with possibly a buyout at the end of it.
So to not worry about the spikes and troughs that the traders/mm's create...share build!
If you have the time you can do both.
IMHO! :-)
LW - I dont disagree with what you said, its normal for most if not all businesses, just still cant believe a positive RNS has turned a reasonably stable considerably SP south in 24hrs!
#SPDrowning!
I recall that there was some disquiet on here when the Term Sheet was announced, with some saying it was a capitulation by BM. Others saw it as a good deal because it secured the funding required for the project. Whilst I might have preferred less equity and more debt, I don't know how easy or difficult it would be to get a £25 million investment into a Malian gold explorer.
To be perfectly honest, and more generally, any CEO is going to have to take note of the largest and majority shareholders of their company. If they don't, they will probably be out of a post. If you have a controlling stake in a company, you will want to exercise and exert that control? All imo
I’m of the opinion that the existence of the Term Sheet is severely harming retail shareholders’ prospects, and that the funding arrangements could easily have been finalised post-DFS with no detriment to the company’s future. BM has rolled over for the large shareholders.
Stocktow - that's probably right, a case of short term pain before Term Sheet is executed, but hopefully longer term gain thereafter. I hope BM is aware that share price can't really grow until the Term Sheet is executed, and everything is on track in that respect. We could do with an update from him in that regard. The share price action here will be interesting to watch in the next 4 weeks. It might well be a case of battening down the hatches.
Indeed, Stocktow. More knowledgeable individuals than myself have already pointed out that given the exceptionally positive flow of news released by the company, the sp would normally have been sitting at multiples of its current price. Its day will come.
SHAREBUYER - What's encouraging for me beyond the 2 new discoveries also was the surface gold recorded at the Bokoro II permit recently.
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2795D_1-2022-3-1.pdf
Beyond the Sanankoro shear Zone, the connecting licenses look to be littered with Gold, opening this up to be a Multi Million oz Discovery, and in a rather quick frame time. Once production begins and they can explore beyond here, the prospect of increasing oz's and maintaining reserves looks mouth watering
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CORA/exciting-high-grade-tekeledougou-drill-results-od1qxegoc1s9016.html
These are the results from the Tekeledougou Permit 60km south, located 10km from Hummingbirds Yanfolia mine.
56m at 2.2 g/t Au
60m at 0.7 g/t Au
17m at 6.8 g/t Au including 1m at 102 g/t Au
15m at 1.17 g/t
gold, gold and more Gold.We just need the term sheet triggered and kick on from there. This has the potential long term to be an enormous gold producer, let's hope the surrounding fundamentals begin to line up in our favour
So on the actual amount of gold in the ground it is further good news via the RNS. So holding all my shares.
LW - Hence the larger volume of sales rather than buys even on good news today. I guess its batten down the hatches and hope that things move along in the right direction for us all in the coming months.
Happy to see good results but feeling rather deflated at present.
Yes, whilst we definitely can't dismiss the political situation in Mali (firstly it was the military coup, but recently its also the reported increasing Russian influence in Mali, both resulting in the increased risk of tougher sanctions against Mali), the Term Sheet investors will be able to appraise that risk better than most, as they will have access to all the information and experts. But for now, I am not sure that large money/volumes will come into Cora, because:
a) the DFS will be out soon and will lock in the placing price,
b) this placing price is going to be 10% cheaper than the prevailing share price,
c) they will have the added comfort and confirmation that the project is going ahead as planned, because the jurisdictional issues have not stopped the funding for the Sanankoro project.
Therefore, for the really large money, you can see why it makes sense for them to wait until the Term Sheet is executed. With the DFS weeks away, today's announcement and its failure to move the share price, probably also ends any hope of a placing at higher prices, although there's still time and things can change...
I remember LW making a good point not too long ago. If the term sheet is triggered in the near term, it shows confidence with them on the future outlook not just on Sanankoro, but the surrounding and political Jurisdiction. Until we hear otherwise, i remain quietly optimistic
Palms
Looks like the political state of affairs then could be whats scuppering Cora, As AG says there is a lot of good to be signing about here but potentially we may be waiting for a long while before things change and the "shackles" (Politics, DFS and Term sheet etc) are removed from this share.