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The delay in the DFS hasn't helped. The share price will continue to drip down until it lands imo. But is there any incentive to speed things up, because the lower the share price goes, the more shares the key players get as part of the Term Sheet raise. So the current decline is actually a bonus.
Been saying it for several months now (for anyone who cared to listen) - the DFS will set the low in the share price here. If the timetable is on track and we get the DFS in the next 6 weeks, then I think the low will be in and around the 3.5p to 4.5p range. (This is calculated by deducting 10% from the current share price. So for example, if the DFS is issued when the 30VWAP is at 5p, the 10% discount gives you 4.5p for the Term Sheet price. If the share price falls to 4.5p (on the 30VWAP) when the DFS is issued, the 10% discount gives you 4p, and so on.)
Yes, it's unfortunate for existing PI's, but they can also average down during the Term Sheet process, and 'win' then share in the upside once the development stage begins. As always, all imo and DYOR.
They based projections around $1900 an Oz. Gold around $1720 an Oz just now so the economics are not as attractive. Starting to wonder what is actually going on behind the scenes. PI’s getting shafted as usual.
Someone mentioned the possibility of a term sheet renegotiation a few weeks back. As I've made clear, I am going to wait until the Term Sheet to buy in here. What I am wondering about is when that will fund raise will happen? The most recent presentation says it will happen in H2 of 2022, which is exactly what is needed here, because imo there won't be any share price growth before it happens.
What I'm wondering is what happens when the DFS is out and locks in the Term Sheet discounted price. If after this, the share price falls below that discounted price, then would Cora be forced to renegotiate the Term Sheet, because otherwise the Term Sheet raise would be done at a premium to the share price, which seems unrealistic?
Before anyone says the share price won't fall below the discounted price, this will only be true if the Term Sheet raise follows very soon after the DFS. If there is any delay between DFS and Term Sheet, then there is that possibility of the share price continuing to struggle imo.
This all makes me think that Cora won't, indeed can't afford to delay the Term Sheet, because otherwise, they might well have to renegotiate it and that will mean even more dilution at even lower prices?
Maybe this is why the share price is very subdued that the moment, as it is waiting to see what is going to happen with the Term Sheet and at what price?
Bought again to lower my average price. Ideal time before the rises due on this one.
2,very large trades/rollovers/swaps,whichever...just there
Thanks both for your responses, very helpful to know the DFS will address any risks. I haven't seen the new presentation, but will deffo take a look at it when I get a chance. I am sure it will be impressive given the nature of Sanankoro.
Thanks AG1989.....by the way...topped up 100k today........can't ignore the current price. lol...will add more as things progress etc.
LW, Bankruptcy
Have you seen the company presentation released today ? Quite impressive
A lot of information in there we already knew but with the 2021 drilling grades, the recently updated Resource of 900,000 oz and other snippets, it certainly feels like it’s all starting to come together slowly
Country risk mentioned here (sample 1),
"Definitive Feasibility Study in relation to a Project, a comprehensive document or documents that addresses all matters which are customarily required for an effective assessment of the viability of the development and mining of Minerals in, on or under the relevant Project Area, in such form and detail as may be required for the purposes of enabling the Board to reach the Decision to Mine or Decision not to Mine, as the case may be, and which shall include (but is not limited to) appropriately detailed information and data in respect of the following issues: ownership, location, geology and ore reserves, metallurgy, mining, materials handling, processing, ancillary facilities and site services, infrastructure for and availability of labour, energy supply, water, environmental impact studies and rehabilitation obligations, capital costs, costs to be incurred to sustain production including initial working capital, the time and critical path to place a mine or mines into production and financing requirements throughout the construction phase, financial analysis (including price sensitivity analysis) assumptions as to mineral prices and utilisation of a discount rate consistent with financing costs at the time as well as project and country risks “Companies Act” the Companies Act, No. 61 of 1973 (as amended) Sample 1 Based on 1 documents"
https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/definitive-feasibility-study
I'm sure the company would have liked to have gotten over the 1Moz, as its a good headline/promotional tool to have. But at least nobody massaged the figures to get to that level, which gives more confidence in the resource. Further growth drilling will undoubtedly push it well beyond the 1Moz. But ultimately, the measured resource (and having an economical cut off grade) is what matter most I guess.
The DFS will be a key document. Does anybody know/expect it to cover any jurisdictional issues/risks. Will it address the deliverability of the project (in terms of any security risks, getting people/goods into and out of Mali to build the mine, etc)
or will it simply be focussed on the project economics and capex etc?
I'm only asking because I don't know if the DFS will set all this out for investors, including Lionhead, or if not, how else we will know what Lionhead intend to do and when?
I absolutely agree with all that you say hereAG1989.....I have followed "every" discovery here.....and I know wher the focus is...for the time being.....just would have hoped for e.g 1.25m oz....that's all!
I am really excited by the "future" potential...too....open in all directions..and depth....just doesn't get much better!
GLA
Yeah I understand that mate. But "Exploration Targets" are a a bit of a minefield. The Majority of Junior mining/exploration companies that release an Exploration Target, never seem to get anywhere near, even over a prolonged period of time. If in 3 years, they've grown the Resource within touching distance of 1Million Ounces, with a tremendous amount of upside left, that's above satisfactory for me
40,000m drilling in a 6 month period, you just wont find that anywhere else with MICRO Cap companies. The company have an exploration target of 2Moz up to 100m Depth. They were consistently hitting high grade mineralisation, all the way down to 200m. The upside to grow this far beyond 2Moz for me does not get talked about enough. Full focus however is focused on proving up the ounces and getting this to production as soon as possible
I do take your point, and its a milestone some investors are itching to achieve, but it'll happen sooner or later, i have no doubts about that.
AG1989....was that we are not over the 1moz. yet......and as per the RNS nearly 3 yrs. ago(in part below)......and the positive "new discoveries" etc. I was expecting a bit more at this stage...that's all.....the "initial" target of beween 1moz. and 2moz.
20 November 2018
Cora Gold Limited ("Cora Gold" or "the Company")
Sanankoro Gold Discovery Video
Cora Gold Limited, the West African focused gold exploration company, is pleased to announce that it has prepared an informative video presentation ("the Video") on its Sanankoro Gold Discovery in Southern Mali ("Sanankoro"). The Video gives an overview of Sanankoro and its initial Exploration Target of 1.0-2.0 million ounces to a depth of 100m indicating the potential for significant further upside at depth, along strike and within parallel structures, as recently confirmed in an independent review by SRK Consulting (UK) Ltd (please refer to RNS dated 15 October 2018).
If I was a betting man, I’d probably say no, and for the same reasons as you’ve stated. There has been plenty of RNS reports released, positive reports which have led to no positive move regarding the SP. I just feel when I see a good price for myself, I know I can lock it in, and it’s real, if I want to use that word. As much as this term sheet may be holding the price back, the closer we get to that, the closer we also get to the completion of the DFS.
And I don’t know what will be reported in the DFS, but I know what I’m hoping for. If the company release that they’re aiming for 55,000-60,000 oz per annum with an initial AISC of around $700-$800, this could be just as significant to anything we’ve seen on the journey this far. New investment looking in, at a £15m MCAP with a company “financed” for production for a mine with a life of 10 years +, I can see a lot of buyers coming in. A lot of “ifs and buts”, but that’s where my head is
If I was to judge my BUYS here and take anything forward, I’d probably conclude that I should wait for the term sheet to BUY, that would be the sensible option. But I know what we have, and can look back on each purchase without regret. Judge the value of the company, the outlook for the future and pull the trigger. If and when the SP pulls back when the term sheet is triggered, il be sure to add even more, but I think the levels I’m adding at currently, will be surpassed in no time moving forward. Very excited to see how it goes from here
AG - I totally respect that. We must each do what feels right to us here, to protect our investments. It's not an exercise in synchronised swimming, so it is perfectly legitimate for individuals to have different views about Cora, and the right time to add or buy in. All I am doing is spelling out the FACTS and REALITIES created by the Term Sheet, as I see them, and which to ME are playing out right in front of our eyes. I first said this several months ago, and so far it has played out pretty much to MY expectations. So what reason would I have to change my mind, or to dance to a more merry tune?
AND realistically, do you REALLY see the price going up in advance of the DFS? I was willing to entertain that possibility at the start of the year, when we were waiting for the drill results, but those results came and went, and instead of rising, the share price FELL!!! We've now had a significant MRE upgrade, and that hasn't lifted the share price either. IMO, there is now NO newsflow left, which might lift the share price in advance of the DFS. The DFS itself IS the next item of newsflow and it is expected in the next 6 weeks. It WILL then LOCK in the discounted share price.
IMO, the best way to protect any investment is to face up to these simple FACTS, however uncomfortable they are. So far, I have done that, and it has stopped me ending up underwater here as well. I've reasoned that there is simply no point in ME investing here in advance of the Term Sheet, and I'd rather invest when Lionhead also show their cash. That's not just about the discounted share price. Even in the very unlikely scenario that the share price is higher, the security of knowing the funding has been released by Lionhead and the development is de-risked, is a price worth paying IMO.
But my view about the Term Sheet implications simply grow STRONGER by the current share price action, and they aint going to change until I see evidence to the contrary in the share price, which so far isn't emerging. But as you say, each to their own, and I wish you the best in whatever you decide is best and right for your investment.
I can see Cora being a takeover target which could come out of the blue (would be messy negotiations with the term sheet involved), or a little longer term
I personally believe now that if Cora got took out at 20p a share, £60m MCAP, it would be a steal for the buyer with £1B+ worth of in the ground Gold, at very shallow depths. Whenever I make a purchase or investment, I always judge the investment “if somebody was to buy the company out, what valuation would it be at ?” And ive concluded that a BUY at £15m MCAP is worth while, albeit I do agree it could go lower.
Each to their own LW, but on the same token I’ve got an investment to protect. I’m well under here so if I see the company progressing and I have the chance to average down, I will it’s that simple. It may not lift the sp for a while but all this letting the share price sink and waiting for the 10% discount doesn’t personally wash with me any more. The company deserve their praise, you talk sometimes like Cora should just suspend trading and nobody should buy. Shares have been bought at 15p, a load at 10p, some at 19p. There probably will be a dip after the term sheet, but there’s nothing to say that it can’t rise before then, resulting in that 10% discount being a higher price than today’s price?
I have full respect for those buying and supporting the company. I don’t think Il get a 5p average, but the prices I can buy at now will significantly reduce my average, it’s a guaranteed buy now and long term, the price will rise far above what my average is
We have differing opinions and we do this dance time and time again. I just think after a brilliant, and I mean brilliant RNS, it doesn’t surprise me at all to see some investors buying
If a transaction is below the mid price it is indicated as a sell. If it's above the mid price it's a buy. As simple as that! When you can buy below mid it may mean the price is going to go down further.
Bought some shares and shows as sell, appears many buys in last few days are shown as sells ? Can anyone explain why purchase is shown as sell.
Another factor which is likely to be relevant here is whether the capex figure will have increased post inflation. If so, then obviously more funding will be needed, but in such a scenario, would Cora renegotiate the Term Sheet, or will they simply raise more from Lionhead and private investors, under the terms of the existing Term Sheet? (The last time the Term Sheet was renegotiated, there was a feeling that it was a capitulation from Cora as compared with the previous one, and so I wouldn't be overly confident if they now had to renegotiate it again.) The other unknown factor here is the order of events. Does the funding go ahead before the licence/permitting, or would Lionhead want the licence all sorted out before the Term Sheet funding could be released?
These are key questions that we need to know the answers to, and hopefully once the DFS is out, BM will let us know the order of events and the likely timescales.
I completely agree with Bankrupty. Given the geopolitical situation, I would definitely want to wait for see how Lionhead proceed. We need their investment to de risk Cora, as well as the mining licence.
The 1 million ounces will come for sure. Not overly concerned about that.
Bankruptcy - I think if you look around the junior space, there are a lot of companies that can’t even define any kind of resource.
This time last year, when the results were filtering through, we were sat on 265,000 oz. in over a year, they have tripled that number to be sat on 80,000 oz below 1million. I think the company have done brilliantly.
A mixture between a driven board, a huge drilling campaign and Good ground has helped us along the way. In time, I fully expect that 2Moz mark to be breached, but didn’t expect it any time soon
But each to their own and we all have differing expectations
I am a long term holder...as no doubt many of you know.....my disappointment is the fact that we are not yet above 1m oz.
i honestly was expecting us to be near 2m by now....i understand the need to be realistic and get going...and will buy in further...when we see how Lionhead proceeds....! GLA
dv, that’s a nice size allocation. Yes, a good RNS in a beaten market. I’m 20% + down here so any decent purchase will narrow that gap quite considerably.
Hi all. Surely the most sensible and risk free time to invest or average down here will be under the term sheet itself? Firstly, you get your shares at a 10% discount. Secondly, you invest knowing that lionhead have proceeded with their investment despite any jurisdictional issues. Any issues or delay with the term sheet is not going to help with the share price? So why would anyone take that chance when they don’t need to (in that the share price is not creating any FOMO) by waiting? All imo and DYOR?