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Quite possible that those factors are having a major impact. The Term Sheet is having a stranglehold on the share price here, and it either needs to go ahead in order to release the handbrake, or IF that is not possible right now due to these factors, then isn't it better for Cora to relinquish it, continue with its exploration, and then renegotiate the Term Sheet at a more opportune time?
I suppose everything from cost put inflation, supply chain delays, availability of parts and equipment and demand pull inflation on these, political factors, financing/ and Term Sheet "flexibility/inflexibility?? etc. make it nigh on impossible to deliver NOW! To a certain extent not limited to CORA but other companies in the same boat??
Guess that's why they are moving on forward on exploration?
This RNS confirms that: "Cora remains fully focussed on the DFS and looks forward to updating shareholders on its progress during the quarter." Which sort of confirms that the DFS won't be ready this quarter, and we will simply get an update. Why is it taking so long, given that its mainly a desktop exercise?
Nice update on Sanankoro, things building nicely. Good news to come in the DFS in due course. Sanankoro could go to 2moz. Farassaba results look great from last week as well
Tonycurrie - as I understand it from the last RNS, we are getting an update on the DFS for Q4, and not its completion. Would it normally take this long to increase the resource estimate?
What a difference a year makes.
The sentiment towards CORA this time last year is night and day compared to what we're seeing now. Not sure why they stopped communicating.
Price action suggests we're not going to get the DFS this year.
Strange really.
Legalwolf - Cora have declared a date for the DFS Q4. Additionally they stated the reason for the delay - to increase resource estimate.
I also think the Term Sheet is on hold. Otherwise, its hard to fathom why the DFS, which initially was going to be ready 6 months ago, is still not ready, and Cora have also removed mention of a timescale for its completion. The media has stopped - which means no forum for putting these questions to the company, nor is the company categorically and openly itself offering re-assurance, all whilst the share price has steadily been bleeding down. At the current share price, the 10% Term Sheet discount will mean shares issued at 3.5p? All imo and DYOR
well I suppose they have to do something if the Term Sheet etc. is a bit on hold! I've still got a smaller holding here but did employ capital elsewhere a bit too!
Really good RNS this morning!
Hey Legal,
I totally understand the 10% discount view. It matches my own view as to why no trades happen here. That said, I think we are all well aware of that here so while its relevant from a purchasing perspective, it isn't all that should be discussed in my view. I'm not sure that referencing it in response to questions assists said questions, even though the outcome is important if you were to buy. I don't mean that as rudely as it may sound, just a case of I've noticed you often refer back to that point, which is oviously an important one for you, but potentially a distraction from other points.
As an example. I'd love to know what people think about the recovery rates expected and if they are achievable?
Zan_TM - the other factor here, and which sort of solidifies my view, is that the Term Sheet raise will be done at a 10% discount to what the share price happens to be when the DFS is issued. If the DFS was issued now, the Term Sheet would be done at ~ 4p. By waiting until the Term Sheet, you have the following benefits:
1) You will know that the funding for the mine development is in place - and so the project is de-risked.
2) You can be less concerned about the situation in Mali (and Russia) because Lionhead will have considered all that before they proceeded with the Term Sheet. Lionhead putting in the £20 million should be a good enough 'risk assessment' for all of us.
3) You have a very good chance of getting your shares at a 10% discount.
4) You are buying at a key inflection point, knowing that the mine development will be going ahead and with a timescale.
Against that backdrop, and given the share price is not doing all that much right now, and the next piece of major news will be the DFS (which will lock in the Term Sheet price), what would be the reasons for buying now at a premium v the risks (delay caused by Mali/Russia issues). Bit of a no brainer for me, but we each assess things differently and this is merely my own view and assessment and DYOR.
I think its very natural if not sensible to be nervous when any company takes a different comms method than is its norm. I.e., changes from active to non active. Note, active is relevant to each company as each has its own usual amount.
Now, that change doesn't to me mean bad news, often it is just that the company is either very busy behind the seens or has moved into a less news creating phase of the project. However without the comms, even if logical or understandable you become left in the dark and so are left to "best guess" what is happening, which usually is wrong, be that good or bad lol.
Looking at their latest presentations timelines, it appears they are just a bit behind track. The Enviro Award was expected Q3 I believe but only came out yest.
One "best guess" I've pondered, is are they delaying the DFS in the hope of a Gold Price rally so a better economic price can be used in the DFS? On the presentation it states the old study at $1500 but also shows economics at $1400 and $1300, but importantly also mentions the then current price of $1900.
We saw with the last MRE that cut off grades moved down to allow some increase in inferred/indicated scale. Maybe they want circa $1700 plus for the DFS as one option, as that would really improve the overall economics of the project.
I could be totally wrong, but when in the dark, as mentioned, you best guess these things.
Thanks Zan - as you say, the situation has changed since the Ukraine war. I've long since decided that I will wait to see what happens here in terms of Lionhead proceeding with their Term Sheet investment. The fact that the DFS has been delayed, and the comms/media have just stopped, just makes me a bit nervous and wonder about all this. Also, I don't see the point of investing here before the Term Sheet, especially given that the share price is languishing as well, and the company isn't doing all that much about it in terms of promotion. All imo and DYOR
I should add Paul Quirk was involved in Cora before the latest coup and Wagner involvment so again, maybe not the greatest example by me. Best to mention as I do like to be balanced and engage in real debate with the aid of learning not hiding facts to suit a story.
I completely hear your point LW and in some areas fully agree, def about the comms slowing down.
However as a small correction on a fair number of occasions BM has addressed the more recent securitt concerns and stressed that he didn't feel it would affect operations. This was done via interviews and Q&A's
I'm also invested in a different Mali based company who have also stressed they feel its fine (at present), with most of the action happening in the East of the country. As a disclaimer, that company is more strongly linked with China so less "western" concerns of course, so not a perfect example I appreciate.
Now granted its in their interests to suggest all is fine but at this point it appears Mali's desire for the income/jobs created from mining is potentially keeping that industry safe. Note Mali has rules that mining companies have to form seperate operating companies of which the Mali goverment takes a stake. Often around 10%. I guess that 10% ish works like a very useful brown envelope.
In terms of Lionhead, I'm not so sure the location will put them off. Paul Quirk from Lionhead is afterall a note worthy Cora investor too, so clearly the location didn't concern him then. But I do feel maybe the general market conditions might mean, be the cause of a delay.
Who knows for sure what is going on with Cora, I certainly don't. The company is several months behind its original timescale for the DFS and has hardly done much promotional work this year. The current military regime in Mali has clearly aligned itself with Russia and away from the West. In turn, hardly a week goes by without another western news story about Russian interest in Mali's mineral resources, and about Russia operating a mercenary group on the ground in Mali (the Wagner group). None of the geopolitical news gives much comfort in thinking that this is a time for large Western investment groups like Lionhead to be investing big money into Mali right now, or for western contractors to go in and build a mine, when there are significant security risks. And its not like Cora have come out and offered any reassurance about these matters either - in fact, the comms have been very poor this year, in contrast to previous years, and that also makes me wonder. Anyway all imo and DYOR.
Round numbers hey. We all know it doesn't matter if our holdings are neat and tidy number wise and yet I'm with you, as illogical as it may appear, your holfing just feels nicer when it has that perfect rounded off look to it.
The 2000 buy was mine, as just rounding up the total holding to a level number. I still believe in this share.
No one risked it.
No one is buying buy in like manner no one is selling either.
Anyone daring enough to make the first trade today or are we on course for a blank day?
I've missed not seeing the 3 x under a £ trades that usually happen for us today.
I don't read the RNS the way LegalWolf does. looks like they want bigger figures in the DFS.
Bert Monro, Chief Executive Officer of Cora, commented, "Work is continuing at pace on the DFS for Sanankoro. To date the optimisation exercise has been successful and our work over the past few weeks has indicated that further adjustments can be made to further enhance the Project's economics, and we are keen to ensure that the optimal route to production is delivered to the market"
I'm sure Lionhead's interests and wishes are dictating matters here. After all, they did put a clause in the Term Sheet that the DFS had to be delivered by Q2. So Cora could not alter the timescale, without agreeing it with them, otherwise they would be in breach of the Term Sheet. With all the domestic and geopolitical issues, the fall in POG, and inflation, it probably isn't realistic to expect a significant Term Sheet investment to be made just right now by Lionhead. The problem is that these issues are not likely to resolve quickly, and if anything, could get worse. I'm just relieved that I decided to wait before entering here, but do feel for existing shareholders who are seemingly now going to have to endure a wait of who knows how long before seeing progress. All imo and DYOR.
That is my initial thoughts too LW. In Q2 Bert was talking about starting construction possibly before the years out. That doesn't look likely now.
The markets have changed and maybe Lionhead want to hold off until a better picture is known of the global markets or even Malis state of affairs.
Who knows.
This is definitely being slowed down and that can only be because they are not ready to proceed with the Term Sheet. There is no reason why the DFS should be delayed again. No commitment in there to complete it by Q4 either, but merely to give further updates. So why wait until end of Q3 to inform the market of this? Not good at all this but then not all together surprising either. All imo