Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Good objective piece for the investment case Tiburn and as you say it really deserves an objective counter argument if it’s to be dismissed.
Trading in the short term noise is fine, making assertions is not objective though, both will make money however.
One requires research and patience the other quick wits and dare I say a sleight of hand.
In that case I must be dim witted (!) as I invest in the fundamentals and use patience as the longer game will imho make more in this case.
Sits on hands…
Tiburn, I think risks are low but it’s worth considering previous statements Arthur has said, as well time scales changing when previously stated. Hopefully he’s trying to change that. Risks of CUDA not going through or not having good refinance is still possible although I think very low risk on the former and a low risk on the latter. I think these 2 are the main hurdles. The RS report is interesting but when finance in place and profitability is shown the SP should rise significantly
Tiburn, arguing with a narcissist, you will never win, when you are on the upper hand of a subject, they will claim the subject itself is wrong, maybe that they were just being sarcastic so the argument is moot.
Anything that would have been worthy of discussion will be lost in the back and forth of time wasting, with them eventually agreeing with themselves anyway as being right, after all it is their universe you share and they are at the centre of it...... It is a fruitless and totally irrelevant route to take, besides, like Art implied, they will continue with the same wrong until they have either agreed with themselves its a right, or convinced others its a fact. Fundamentally its an irrelevance.
"I asked the question not to engender crass comments, but for contributions of realistic or likely risks that may remain.
"So you obviously have no intelligence..."
There, I've fixed it for you, Tiburn.
HODl
I asked the question not to engender crass comments, but for contributions of realistic or likely risks that may remain.
So you obviously have no intelligent counter arguments then ?
The key risks are managed, identified and solutions found to a reasonable degree as COPL themselves have maintained on gas pressures, finance, extraction approach etc.
WTI price isnt coming down anytime soon - baring war with Canada or meteor strike on the field this is as good a position as you can expect with O&G.
There are always risks in this sector, its how they are managed thats key and if your an investor your perception of the risk management approach
dont engage with them guys.
patience will pay out. look at CASP today on their drill results.
what about all other news we have before our drill? time will come...
Very true bob - that's the last time I engage with them. Attention seeking trolls.
Don't engage DusterThats what they want. Let them talk to themselves
No one's ramping anything at 100p ( £1) it's just fair value on what the company has or say they have.
like buses, all come along at once, as transparent as clingfilm with one narcissist still agreeing with himself...
Great summary from Tiburn.
Perhaps add (in item 4.) Oil sale / Butane purchase hedges / swaps sorted - just as production about to increase.
Reminder - WTI @ ~USD$110.
GLA
Irons a bit more feisty this morning, has gold logged into wrong account?
Have a good day investors and traders, try not to clog up the board with negativity, it’s bad for the soul.
You girls are so transparent - got your 10% trade then deramping and trying to be negative again.
I hope this takes off with you left behind. Ha ha
Nice summary Tiburn, I think it’s fair to say Ryder Scott and Cuda will kick off things and will be ticked off imminently.
Hoping we get an RNS soon to say we have RS Report and the BOD should sign off in 2 weeks.
Tiburn, I expect the SR report will get them a discount on the RBL.
Well worth the investment.
SP £1 Initial target scenarios
1 - Ryder Scott resources report - encourages postion taking for PI and II, moves market cap up on expectation of OIP being confirmed. COPL did not need to commission this report, obviously feel it is useful and may have influence, the SP reaction to this report will be interesting over a period of time, could be a re rate catalyst, no one can call it until it occurs.
2 - Gas pressure kit installed - the long awaited rise in production that the proven MF technological approach provides, the reservoir is charged with butane - manage pressures and the choked production will flow - COPL state upto 800 bopd is capped, this is just to get back to normal production levels with the chokes opened., then the profile of growth resumes. This is a longer period, needs a few milestones in place of inital spike and then rise each month, cumulative benefit in revenue, positive perception of the field and COPL ability to produce from it.
3 - Reserve based lending facility in place - The number one catalyst - with this secured all the stated plans are possible. Potenital facility based on increased CUDA reserves secured, revised rate and industry circumstances should enable a good deal - COPL have had unsolcitated offers.
4 - Debt managed demonstrated - critical outcome of the new RBL facility - previous debt paid off, new revolver facility means interest payments only in initial growth period then capital paid off later once production is increased. Revolver facility allows all the agreed facility to be drawn down if required, pay for the $33m capex plans (minus the $16m oil production facility now not required in 22/23 as was planned).
5 - Frontier drill success - The motherlode - 1000 - 2000 bopd viable per well, cumulative growth. Delineation of the field in phases - Phase 1 is 16 wells - as drilled and online, reserves booked and the RBL facility is increased, so allows more drilling. Its a 60+ well field at one per sq mile assuming the base case scenario, but COPL hopeful of the High case and 80+ sq miles
6 - Cumulative impact of above - leads to further interest and investment
7 - Neighbour drill success - similar discovery in adjacent fields - Exxon are very active to the north.
8 - Joint venture - sale of part of asset - unknown value or impact - perhaps more likely later in the field delineation process.
9 - Further acquisitions - CNOOC share, other leases in PRB
These key drivers are viable, coming soon or in planning.
If there was an objective counter argument with similar evidence base for why the £1 INITIAL SP target may not be achieved within 22/23 , then its worth the discussion.