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Shouston I’ve never been out, old school investor, buy, hold and buy more if poss, not sold any yet, no trades just holding until we get a proper price and then will trade a bit. :) thanks though.
Coplholer,
You seem to reference an historical sp and mcap 'pair' as the benchmark of value and use that to reason later sp-mcap pairs...
May I ask if you also calculated/estimated your own actual BFU-CC asset value and how that correlated to the sp-mcap 'pairs' you reference ?
- Do you run discounted cash flow (DCF) and then apply an additional Market discount or somesuch ?
- Do you use your own input criteria and/or accept Ryder-Scott's April 2021 input data ?...bit like someone helping with your homework and, even better as, they give you the answers too ! As a dumb Driller, I could only use RS's data....calculations may still be flawed but final answer within 1% of RS i.e. NPV10 $MM173 versus RS $MM174....'blind luck' ?
In Apr '21, COPL had ~148B shares £/$ 1.37. So, 2P reserve NPV10 $MM174 'fair' value criterion would imply sp 0.86p (86p post-consolidation).
If 'Mr. Market 'fair' value sp' was 38p, say, that would imply an additional 'Market discount factor' of ~56%....at that time....
So, what has happened to BFU-CC asset and COPL since ?...exclude discovery 100%...for now
- (Positive) Price of oil forecast revised upwards....how much NPV impact ?
- (Positive) COPL WI increased to 85%...how much impact ?
- (Negative) Extra $MM28 Capex for (unexpected) gas and oil plant upgrade during 2022/23 ?
- (Negative) Reduced '22 production from '21 forecast...how much impact ?
- (No impact) 19x BFU wells ($MM44), are already included in RS Apr '21 NPV, agreed ?
- anything else ?
Yes, DCF's are like opinions (and 'a'-holes ?), right ?...everybody has one !...but, hopefully, the 'rough' value and certainly whether positive or negative should be clear, right ?
FWIW, my RS '22 POO case, keeping all else the same, showed NPV10 $MM232. Although not the same as COPL-RS end of year '21 NPV10 $MM258 it seems encouraging as (a) ~$MM50 higher than original $MM174 (b) ~$MM30 lower than COPL-RS suggesting RS made additional changes upside changes ....
It seems more like 2x placings @20p have 'set the tone', to date, and influence Mr. Market more than asset value (as only short-long PI's given no 'real' institutional investors yet)....
Clearly, COPL must restore the planned inclining production trend to meet NPV assumptions regardless of sp-to-value 'conundrum'....
But, returning to your sp-valuation assessment....
- If you previously agreed with ~56% Market discount to RS 'Apr '21 valuation i.e. 38p 'fair' for 90p 'calculated' then applying the current RS Dec '21 value for projected share base with warrants++, say 250m shares, is ~36p i.e. £/$1.26 NPV10 $MM258 / 250MM shares less 56%)....yet you say 16-20p is 'fair'...are you saying the asset has actually diminished/lost value overall (despite POO and likely Cuda), and/or Mr. Market has rightly increased its discount factor to 76% ?...if you said 30p was 'fair' originally then today it should be 29p (all else being equal)....I might be the weakest link but what's the mis
Apologies Wookie, I took your lack of posting for some time for being out.
My bad Sir.!!
Just took a back seat as there’s been so much bad posting and reading here, it got tiring that’s all, no worries, also really busy atm and not a lot of down time.
Here’s a simpler calculation for production only, based on we have the current debt covered and are making a small annual profit on our hedged and unhedged quotient to do so. Ergo we are priced at approximately at 1.9p ps with a P/E ratio of 10 gets you to the current sp.
When you now add Cuda production at approximately 500bopd at full WTI it’s all profit and even including 30m of options to the share base it adds about 3.8p ps.
Using the same P/E ratio it gets you nearer to 60p ps at todays metric.
Do not lose sight this is an inclining production and more reserves will added as the year concludes. I maintain you will not recognise this company by year end.
Sits on hands…
With you there Harry, good post.
I will add it is based on us being fairly priced today, which it’s not even by the most pessimistic broker notes.
Also the Cuda addition will be added overnight literally at the stroke of a pen.
Sits on hands….
Blue blue blue
Glah
Are little atomic about to go boom
Puts hands in freezer:)
Any Oil and gas companies who can boost their output will be very well received by the market. There is no doubt in my mind CUDA will have a major impact. We can all speculate where the sp may end up...but it's got to be.... UP
USA is desperate to increase output right now. The only thing that is holding it up is lack of supplies and staff.
BBC article sums it all up
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61446317
Thanks Harry….well put in very understandable terms. Blue skys ahead ….
OMG the green party are back probably spouting their own rubbish re figures and arguing that the U.S COURT signing off CUDA should be investigated as they are NOT FIT to wear the wig!!!!
Ffs take a day off from the sad life you have!!!!
Time to chillax for the genuine holders beesty, our research has pointed us towards the fact that our time is neigh.
5 weeks will see us having Cuda confirmed, RS Report published and details of what we paid for Cuda, our revenue from Cuda to date and details of unhedged oil.
All the above could come a lot, lot sooner!
We know within a couple of million how much we paid for Cuda. Circa $18m
Sustained high oil prices have not really contributed to our mcap. But they will. Already far higher than when we purchased Atomic, improved production, Cuda secured & hedge term ending / reduced % and or better financing. will all be positive catalysts I’m regards to capital generation.
There are so many elements to come all of which will provide serious boosts to our value. We have a lot of drills coming up and potentially much bigger reserves than we could have dreamed.
Exciting times In a difficult climate.
" we have a lot of drills coming up " providing our suppliers can get the steel pipe and the skilled operatives to push the planned wells forward !!! only saying - don't shoot the messenger
We do have a lot of drills coming up. It’s not a debate or an issue. We also have materials, they still exist, supply issues is no new news really, we already have a good team, and there are plenty of skilled personnel around despite what the media might latch onto. They didn’t all just die.
No question getting materials and labour isn’t as easy as it was, but by no means is it a total roadblock as some might wish to push.. Of course, all these issues contribute to sustained and higher oil prices anyway so it’s tit for tat in that regard!
It’s a fair point to make regarding materials and personnel but it’s far far from being a major issue. Just look at the price of building materials in the UK has sky rocketed due to issues and the building trade is full throttle despite it, if you have the money you can still get the honey.
materials and labour will only push back the time scales - mind you Art can do that on his own !!!!!
What are you going on about? Material and labour are obviously part of drilling the well. Did you think it just happened for free? Clown
Clown ! lets wait and see if Art sticks to his time line !!!
So now you're taking about timelines? Get a grip, pal
Another placing waiting in the wings !!!!!
Another disgruntled troll.
I think COPL have no choice but to follow "This" , timeline..Duc
Court decisions are well and truly outwith his/our$ direct control?
The key point being is that the judge is about to grant us possession of Cuda...and all that unwinds forthwith from that.
Tbh, THIS op came a lot sooner than I banked upon. Like most I want COPL to maintain trajectory to obtain 5k per day. Yes bit of plumbing required.
In the furore of getting Cuda in "its demise", we think we found a big pond of oil...
Shh keep quiet, but maybe we want to buy them for lowest price...
What we have here is plan found for plumbing issue, but also what's on order ...
Really clutching at straws
Happy I’m loaded gla
Duc996
Read your past few posts; I’ll give you the benefit of doubt that its just frustration on your part, but I can’t ignore subtle digs.
We’ll see....