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I think that some here are trolling, surely. If the deal values 50% at $40M then that's a minimum doubling of the current SP. In my experience, the SP of a junior miner after JV always reflects what the senior partner paid. You stand to double your monies very soon and make a lot more as the resource is expanded and firmed up. Construction materials? Some of it will surely be used in steel making, ceramics, semiconductor and other vital sectors. Greg surely knows that with the initial 10 year term of the licence, he has to work quickly. Why all the negatively when we have a JV and are very clearly undervalued.
Watched the video. Hope to heavens it's not another Savannah where, in reality, we're actually years away from earnings. It's SL where the lethargic license squatter risk looms large, and I think we've seen some SL suspicion about CMET previously when they took their licenses away. Of course, it was corruption but when you dont progress you leave yourselves open to such flank moves. Also, these are after all standard construction minerals that are not in short supply and I think as such they're struggling to excite commitment to the big risks like jv/build etc... The port lease and port quality could be a risk too and, like a previous poster said, we're half way through the leases now and years away from earnings. I'm an LTH and staying put with a modest holding but I'm not expecting fireworks anytime soon from this BOD, especially GM who, on this showing came across as a bit dopey in my view. I've had high hopes for my holding here but I don't like companies that over promise and under achieve. Hoping for more positive news but in the absence of, its a 3 to 5 year hold for me now. Bottom drawer with Savannah.
At last some positive view đź‘Ť
Nice post Justone
Having just watched the interview, the drop in the share price is perplexing. The comments on here reflect some very nervous shareholders, who might have contributed to the selling. I was very pleased with the interview, lots of potential positives, and some honest pragmatic answers, Australian style! This investment has lots of moving parts, and strategies will change over time, especially with Sheffields involvement. Greg sounded and looked very confident. The very loyal shareholder base is backing him, know the value of our project, and I would think are very happy that we are running with the Australian Sheffield. There are no issues that cannot be overcome, and now both Sheffield and CMET want to maximise the opportunity, when money is not a problem. There will be a few bumps in the road, but the loyal original shareholders have shown their resolve when the share price was at 1p, that would have been the time for anything sinister to happen. We will see the bones of the deal next week. I look forward to 20 years of substantial dividends, unless we get bought out. I would think the original shareholders will not let it go cheap after waiting for so long. I am a very relaxed shareholder, who has been to the last two AGM’s and met Greg.
Lots of long-term folk who are underwater. But we could be more positive about the signing of a JV. Just think, 8 months ago, CMET was in a very, very different place.
SP doesn't reflect what will be (hopefully) a good deal, that's what I meant.
Funny share board this one. 🤣
End of day. It comes down to the JV terms .. if it’s signed and like we have been told all along, funded to production for 50%.. then we are good from this market cap, more than good. 👍
Greg mentioned driving harder than planned. That they needed to make sure that they wouldn't shorten the mine life without knowing that the extra resource is in the ground. We need to see the deal first. I don't understand why the board would put the company at risk of a cheap buyout - doesn't make sense. Greg seems relaxed, I assume that Aim rules probably focused his mind as well. He couldn't say drilling is in progress and they have X results, clearly...the timescales are different but the SP should reflect a good deal outcome - it does at the moment.
I don't think it was anything to do with not being able to talk about the deal. He was just overly casual in his approach and didn't appear to have a firm handle on things. We will see what the detail is, but I suspect this JV will be written and dictated by Sheffield. The way in which this project moves and its timescales will be determined by Griffin i.e. what suits Sheffield and the pace at which they wan to progress it. Is this why the drilling has been delayed. It does indeed seem like Griffin is going to be king maker here. To an extent, this is to be expected when it comes to a JV, in that the funding partner tends to dictate.
The other thing to say is that things have changed dramatically now. Most of us will remember being told that there was no need for a PFS, and that the economic study that was done, would be sufficient for funding partners. We were also told that offtakers were queuing up, whereas now it's deference to Griffin to sort out the offtake. Previously the rejuvenation of the port was at the centre of the project, now it's being presented as a bit of a headache. Previously it would take 6 months to get this concentrate plant up and running - now it's going to be closer 2026.
I think the concern has to be whether Sheffield have given themselves 12 months to take a good look at this project with this 5% option, and if they like it, will they supress the share price? This might prove unfounded, but the risk is there. All imo and dyor
Agree Sebo. Giving upside up, can be as simple as a thought as giving away 50% of the upside to get the funding sorted. Thats still giving upside up, while retaining a free ride for our share .. people have got their undergarments in a twist over a youtube interview 🤣
Greg 's comment about 'being prepared to give the upside up' was a clunky comment that probably referred more to the LB deal than the Sheffield one. I never thought that the LB deal was a good deal. I assume that the Sheffield deal is the best on the table. The board wouldn't accept anything else. So let's await the deal info via RNS. Greg did seem confident, there isn't any doubt in my mind that the deal is done. $40M funding approx. for 50%? We shall see, surely that would be great news.
when this jv is signed then the clock will be ticking. hopefully, they can start moving quickly to get the mining operation going. was the interview confusing? he couldn't say anything that hasn't been said in an rns. the interviewer was sweaty and seemed uncomfortable - not slick at all. would have been better to do this after the deal is signed. but no real justification for the drop. they will extend the licenses clearly -- he was talking about being there for 20 years. i also think that there was some shameful sp manipulation today. including some *******s about the deal early on which was moronic. i had to watch the video to realise what he actually said. with a jv in place , i expect to see double digits and that isn't unreasonable. cmet are no doubt perplexed and embarrassed to be down here (i'm certainly perplexed).
The biggest problem is they are now talking about production being in Q1 2026. If that's a month or two late, that's two years away. We have been told its so easy to extract this out the ground but by then we will be 5 years into the 10 years licence I think? Pretty ridiculous.
I haven't seen the interview, but imagine the company paying for an interview that causes so much confusion it puts the share almost down 10%. Brilliant.
Just had chance to watch the interview and the effect it’s had on the share price and deservedly so.
I agree Greg was poor and confusing not like the 1st interview but is that because the JV has been done and he’s struggling with what he can and can’t say until it’s official.
CMET has always been very bullish with what they have but has Sheffield said enough, prove it before we go all in, from Sheffields point of view it makes sense. As legalwolf has said the devil is going to be in the detail of any deal.
Makes you wonder what influence Peter Griffin is playing in all this and is the king maker.
GM did say we don’t need any money it’s his job now to increase the buying in the stock, which would stop any low ball takeover, which spectacularly failed today.
You are being unreasonable. These projects are complicated with lots of moving parts. He sounds confident that he can strong arm the government into allowing him to mine below the WT. 20 years of mine life he says...
To me, problem is they over promise and under achieve. The video last October, just after they'd got the licenses back, talked about production one year following LB jv. Forget that. Even though these minerals are easy access, they're in SL and they're just common construction minerals, plus that port and shipping stuff all looks a bit risky too, eg have they even sorted out the port agreement to lease even. Not instilling me with confidence and sp speaking volumes and that's the bottom line.
Sebo10
Re water table issue: Interview time 9:20.
I didn't hear anything about a problem extracting below the water table. There is lots of assumption going on. The drill slippage is annoying but the JV is the most important deal ATM. Once funding is confirmed then we should see much better value. Don't know why people would sell when the SP is well below any sensible level. Chasing rainbows rarely works out.
My principal takeaway was the lack of clarity and the introduction of new issues.
GM's comments about the further boreholes - "ready to go" are disappointing when compared with the following statement from the 21/03/24 RNS: - "Final preparations are underway to commence both Aircore and Sonic rig drilling programmes in April 2024."
All projects can, and usually do, experience schedule slippage, but it is inadvisable to intimate a target (April) where there is an element of doubt.
GM also mentioned that there may be an issue regarding extraction below the water table.
I would have preferred a positive JV announcement instead of this interview.
Hopefully, the SP will recover when the JV details are released.
Please explain what you heard? He said that he didn't need any money. I take that at face value. The exact amount that Sheffield contribute will determine their share of the asset. I'm confident that the project will be fully funded to self-sufficiency. That's what he said in effect. Talk of a takeout would have to be at a high premium given that the resource is highly likely to treble or more. He mentioned around 100M tonnes at a push.
If they manipulate the share price, then 12p is highly unlikely for CMET's shareholders. If they don't manipulate the share price, then 12p is highly unlikely for Sheffield's shareholders.
Based on what he said 650,000 target would give a turnover of $133m USD.The Chinese got into the weeds over title and one imagines that SL legal system isn't straight forwards.
They have 12-14m sections over grade not included in resource. He thinks easy expansion of resource to 50-100mt so double or triple the resource they have sonic rig and have hired air core as most resource has been developed off hand auger. A digger a mobile separation plant and some trucks and they're in business. Sheffield to help them do PFS and FID early next year.
GLA DYOR
Not disagreeing with LW or Ando and frankly, given what Greg said in that interview and his demeanour I wouldn't be surprised if he's facilitating it with the backing of the Aussie shareholders - all Aussies together.
At this stage I think even 12p looks farfetched. And I can't see why anyone would step in to take a chunk of stock here. That disastrous interview, which should have been nothing but a glowing report, did nothing but raise loads of questions over the long term.
I agree with you, Bruce Griffin wanted this with LB, then he wanted a part of it with KB, then he wants it with SR, then he buys into CMET with a part of this, 109% they want a TO with the potential resource increase, expect a TO offer of about 12p ps.