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Jeff - it’s in the first line of the c11 RNS. The DIP funding is being put up by the existing funders - it’s all in the RNS. Nothing has changed - it’s all in your mind. The whole process has the objective of facilitating the D4E.
I don’t know what else to say. There’s three RNS from the company telling you it’s happening.
Can you point me to where things have changed and D4E is no longer in the table?
But then and now has changed Wolf.
Thats the point your missing.
If you can point out anywhere in the court reports that the money raised is on the guarantee of D4E then your right.
But it's not and that is a major factor.There will be no love lost between CW and the creditors.So IF they can come up with an alternative source of funding then who knows.
The release of 750 million is telling takes them through to cinplex outcome.
Which either way will/ could be the game changer
ATB ;-)
Jeff - Yes I have my opinions but regarding the C11 and D4E nothing is my guesswork, it’s all been laid out. Whether or not folk want to believe it is a completely different matter.
I’s suggest trying to have a sift through some of the pertinent courts docs on the kroll site. They are a bit wordy at times but you can get the general gist.
Wow , we have lots of experts on a 2 bit forum .
Feel so relaxed and at ease now..
100,s of bolox posts daily now, dozens of expertise scenarios unfolding ..
Guessing , presuming , assuming , IMHO, imo, etc etc...
The real outcome will be released from the horses mouth via RNS soon enough ...
Ain't life a daisy :-)
Well i dont think i said 6months...but fair enough.
Like i said its just an opinion - as im sure most of this stuff on this board is. Ill say it straight off the bat - im no financial advisor and would never try to give people financial advice. Just giving an opinion, based on the many reasons I have stated to back up my view. Feedback on my points and hearing different pov is the reason im on this board.
Thanks for the win though :)
bullsbears
You win the post for most ridiculous prediction ever.
£1.20????
Share holders will be basiscally wiped out as stated by 2 official RNSs... I don't know how clearer this can be.
Cineworld may well continue and employes have jobs but share holders will be gone.
Day trade this possibly but £1.20 in 6 months lol.
Brilliant
“ The reality is a debt for equity swap has been proposed numerous times before now. Anyone whom says this is not so, is delusional.
HSBC and Bank of Isreal have constantly rejected this. They do not do debt for equity. It is not in the banking charter and Modus Operandi.”
When? The company would have had to inform the shareholders of this as it’s a measure of last resort.
My biggest worry with this share for months/years has been is this going bust. But now suprisingly this latest C11 move - has given me much more confidence than I have had previously that its actually not now! So im much more comfortable waiting now to see things fall into place.
im just putting it out there - and people may think im crazy....but if the CP case falls into place, and revenues from Nov onwards to pick up as anticipated....then I am expecting a rise back to March 21 highs (around £1.2). Putting all the noise aside - I think Mooky would be happy with this (even though its a considerable dent to what their holdings were worth) and he then has the opportunity to build the company back up and generate the value they will have anticipated from the regal acquisition.
Like I said in the previous post - he could see all this coming from a mile off - and for someone running the business as a family business as has been said - i doubt very much he woul dhave been foolish enough to keep going to inevitably just drive off teh cliff.
If the CP case doesnt work out - which is very possible...and the end of film slate doesnt deliver - which is also possible, as sometimes movies are just crap....then the situation will not have played out as they have hoped....and then the outlook is much more bleak.
But for now its definitely a waiting game. If you have confidence and some funds - could be good to average down as I have been doing....or you can trade the volatility.
Ah right so the lawer was lying when he said the lenders were gobsmacked when they were sent out to rethink the terms and wasnt sure they would be able to now raise the money.
I'm just putting out possibilities which are facts for discussion.
Your putting out opinions as fact.
Theres a difference ;-)
WoW - i think we just have a difference in opinion on the take on what has actually been said.
From what I have read/heard - D4E has been put forward as an option. Is it a likely outcome - yes that is possible, of course. To what extent - thats less certain.
For me - I believe you have to dig deeper here into the words and everything else thats going on and the motives each stakeholder would have. This to me does appear a very strategic move.
- Has the film slate been less than anticipated and is this a long term or short term problem. Yes and short term. Long term revenues should be strong (unlike companies typically going bust). I have asked thsi previously does anyone know of a company whos revenues/prospects looked strong going forward but were still allowed to be 'obliterated' - no ones out any examples forward.
- Does a bankruptcy 'protection', give the company breathing space to get through a sticky period and also possibly give them a stronger hand in negotiations, whether that be the court case or with landlords? I'd say yes and it could end up being a very wise move. Similar to CW closing their cinemas to reduce their cash burn.
- Mooky who owns majority of the company and could see whatver was unfolding a mile away, has decided to see all his holding and family legacy inevitably be obliterated i.e. see the cliff and just keep driving off the edge, or could he have 'exited' way before. Is if what everyone seems to be saying, this really really the only option he had - in effect the only option being seeing his holding get reduced by 90+% at a best case scenario? Something is telling me otherwise.
- Do lenders want to actually lose £bn's by forcing CW to give it back in cash or equity in the short term where they could after eveyrthing just be a bit more patient and let the short term issues play out, when the chances of a full box or nearly full bo recovery are very high.
- The CP case is major spanner in the works here and CW said how its affected their ability with lenders. This uncertainty surrounding this needs to be overcome and then I think everything will change.
People keep creating these fantasy figures around.
The reality is a debt for equity swap has been proposed numerous times before now. Anyone whom says this is not so, is delusional.
HSBC and Bank of Isreal have constantly rejected this. They do not do debt for equity. It is not in the banking charter and Modus Operandi.
Without there support a debt for equity cannot be done.
Cineworld have 784 million to keep running their business till it can support itself.
The chapter 11 is aimed at getting the landlords to reduce rents to a realistic level.
That is all that will happen. IMO
Jeff - the court haven’t asked them to rethink the terms. They have put the $1bn dollars due for the refinance into escrow (I read it in one of the court documents yesterday). That payment will happen, just not immediately like intended. It’s also what the DIP lenders are receiving a 20% yield as compensation.
Looks guys the situation as I have explained it is all outlined in the RNS and the kroll reports. The company has told you the C11 is happening to facilitate the D4E, they have told you this will result in significant dilution with no guarantee of no wipeout, they have told you the existing lenders are providing the DIP finance and the court docs outline the entire situation as I have explained now several times.
There’s no mention of other lenders, other options, etc, this process now has the objective of passing through the D4E, the question now is whether the lenders will agree to it.
“ I am getting the impression that he is under the impression lenders are sat here thinking CW are f*cked, business model has fallen apart and we need to get our 5bn back asap,,,”
Everything is correct here apart from the ‘asap’ bit. The cinema model at this point in time is broken. You can see this in the budgeted cash flows that have been released in the kroll docs and also the interim results published on the website. You have a look at the competitors operationally and their strife - Vue and AMC.
That doesn’t mean to say there cannot be a recovery - this brings us back to the future valuation via the DCF forecasts that Hexam was explaining yesterday. If this is appealing enough it is the lenders best chance of recovering some or maybe all of their money if this is what their models show them. This is also why they have put the DIP finance in place to give the company some operational breathing space in order to prevent collapse before this is all agreed.
Wolf can you list the lenders that put the money up
What's to say that the initial lenders that walked into court in the morning are the same lenders that put the money up in the afternoon after the judge told them to go out and rethink the terms.
Just a thought ATB ;-)
I'm just putting the facts out that we know Wolf.
If that was the only option they had entering into chapter 11
That's not the only option now.
It's a long shot but it's a shot all the same and the fact you and others seem to be ignoring it seems a bit disingenuous on your parts.
Your presuming CW want to give away or get wiped out from there buisness which is nuts.
If it was the only option on the table to raise money then they would be selling it.
Now it's not the only option and theyve just raised a further a 1.9 billion.
Not saying D4E is not going to happen just pointing out it's not the only option NOW on the table.
ATB ;-)
Sorry is late and so mumbling a bit - they prob would need to dilute now or soon enough anyway as their ship prob is running a bit too tight…but I don’t think it would have to an anywhere near as severe as is being made out - if those things I mention do fall into place.
Hexam - It was WOW who I was actually referring to…I am getting the impression that he is under the impression lenders are sat here thinking CW are f*cked, business model has fallen apart and we need to get our 5bn back asap,,,
I don’t think there’s anything like that going on.
I’m of the opinion it’ll be clear to all this is a temporary flow issue and long term things are fine. BUT - there is a real spanner in the works - CP situation.
As Jefff has been saying dilution is not a nailed on obligation.
IMO - mooky is banking on this c11 buying them opportunity to get through this sticky period, get cash flow back Nov onwards and hoping the CP situation gets resolved. If all those 3 can fall into place (it is an if), would CW be able make their repayments? And if they can why would they have to dilute anyway? The only reason it seems like they’ve just fallen short is because of the slate being thinner than anticipated (a short term problem in all likelihood).
There’s obviously a few ways this could play out - but I think saying it’s c11 then massive dilution as the most likeliest of outcomes is not correct.
Right I’m off to bed lol ….
“Hexam, that’s exactly what you and wolf are saying.”
It most definitely isn’t. If they have 100% of the equity they will receive the $3-4bn spread over the next 10-20 years as the profits emerge. They would only get it sooner if they sold the business to someone else.
Btw poor you can’t compare the distressing of a house to a business. The house doesn’t have any future cash flows.
I’m not muddling things up. I am describing Discounted Cash Flows - nothing else.
Unlike mcaps (which is I think what you are thinking of) these do not change significantly over time unless you change your FUTURE assumptions. They just go up steadily at discount rate used.
Poor - the scenario is materialising before your very eyes - you just don’t want to see it. This happens all the time in c11, admins, etc.
Mike Ashley has built Frasers Group on it.
Proper investors do not look at today’s SP, only traders. They look for undervalued businesses by modelling the future free cash flows using DCF like Hexam has already explained.
Hexam, that’s exactly what you and wolf are saying.