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Just a few thoughts so don't take it badly anyone.
I'm trying to work out why the change in linear to non linear rollout of outlets and also talking a outsiders share holder perception here. And i'm only looking at the issue of opening new stores , not how much per store we sell etc .
This past year we were told to expect, (and we all did the calculations) , a linear model journey from a few thousand outlets to 10,000 outlets by July 22.
This linear model was described as a minimum of 500 outlets taking on CHILL and selling CHILL every month for approx. one year so that by July 22 around 10,000 outlets would be on stream. There was plenty of room for them to over please here with some months maybe hitting 1000 openings if possible.
The world changed, business changed, the targets were not met, and we are now informed we are using a non linear model for achieving the 10,000 outlets that apparently will be achieved by sometime around July 22. Therefore, the goal has not changed and they will still need to opening a minimum of over 500 outlets on "average per month over the year" to hit the
10,000 target.
I liked the non linear model because investors had a chance to see progress actually being made , and what could have been monthly, but was decided on a quarterly basis.
The main difference that now exists with the past linear model and todays non linear model is that there is now an expectation of lumpy data being reported over time, no steady accumulative growth month on month, or quarter by quarter. The growth in number of outlets / revenue will be unpredictable, patchy, one month low, next could be higher or visa versa..... which is probably closer to what has happened in reality here this past year probably.
What i do not understand is that IF the steady monthly growth ( linear model) can't be sustained in todays business environment ( else why abolish it ) then what system or type of distribution strategy will CHILL be using for the non linear, more unpredictable method going forward. Does this mean that the quarterly revenue statistics will now be scrapped ! as they will be meaningless to compare like for like.
However you look at it what we do know is that they need to open 10,000 outlets to sell CHILL by July 22
If they were confident in beating the previous objective of 500 outlets per month , then they would have kept it as it was.
I can only think that they realise that slow outlet opening is here to stay for a while, and that they are working on a strategy for next year to escalate the outlets in a few short months at a later date - hence buy time, take pressure of what must be an ongoing slow down in distribution in US at present. Why else change the strategy at this point to a unpredictable one.
Anyone else have any views on why change the model at this stage in the year.
Sorry. That was my mistake. How they going to do this. Any ideas?
Ha ha V, Good.
Do you want to know the names and addresses of all the drivers too? Make sure they have the right credentials?
Now you are just being silly. Lots of talk on here of the new nonlinear model rollout....just wanted to find out what other peoples interpretation of this is . So far we have learnt it involves vans.
@vas - you are confusing store roll-out with company growth. Whilst they are linked they are not the same and the company have always used the non-linear reference to growth and not the store roll-out. The company have said that the roll-out is planned to be at x stores by a certain date and y stores by another date. Others have interpreted that to mean 500 stores per month but that is not what the company have stated.
Obstando. That's interesting. In my mind I had them down originally as saying 125 per week / 500 pm. So the company never specified this number? ill check, you might be correct. Thanks .
My interpretation of a non linear roll out is that some months not many will be added and some months many thousands. Other than that it's irrelevant how they do it unless they massively fail to hit the 10,000 store count by end of March 2022. It's like anyone's job, sometimes you have lots of patients to push about, sometimes very few!
Don't forgot they have more products in their range to roll out now as well of course. How are you going to make that sound dodgy??
Obstando. Just cut and paced and found this update on Zoetics operations 19th November 20.
"The Agreement, which concerns the sale of Zoetic’s Chill brand of tobacco alternative CBD products, has already seen distribution begin across 125 new US stores in the first week alone. Whilst the Company is still at an early stage in the execution of a broader roll out, the speed and extent of distribution has exceeded expectations and stands the Company in good stead to beat launch targets should this pace continue."
I agree that it was not a "solid" number prediction for outlets but everyone who had done their calculations has used this number since. So even though their target of 10,000 outlets holds for March 22 they have never had a official linear model in place. Which made all those calculations meaningless - until we hit a milestone target of say 10,000 outlets.
So thanks for that.
Do you know of a way that they could accelerate their numbers over the next 5 months so that they achieve the 10,000 target - it works out, assuming 3,000 outlets now on stream - at 7,000 new outlets over say 6 months. 1150 a month approx on average.
I'm not trying to trip anyone on up here, just trying to understand what method could possibly treble their existing rollout system over next six months.. ..........and possibly use vans ! Cheers Vas.
Those calculations aren't meaningless as investors assumed a certain number of stores selling at a certain rate would still equal the same sales/profit etc.
Covid's disruption to the supply chain network - ie lack of truck drivers and warehouse personnel - was the reason given for the slower than expected rollout.
As for the increased rate then Yes, more production, more deliveries, more trucks = more stores! You don't need to know anything more than that and you are just trying to sow seeds of doubt - ooh they've only gone out to x stores so far so how are they going to go out to 10,000 by March.
Ragged, don't forget the speed limit is different in different states so surely that will have an affect!!!!
I'm sure Vas only posts his bizarre ramblings to push informative posts off the front page
The transition from tobacco products to non-tobacco products is already well advanced and underway. Nicely branded (Chill) alternative lifestyle products will make a lot of headway in this space.
In general there was a comment made by Viridian on the migration from tobacco to tobacco alternatives, and also there is one of alcohol towards THC, as peoples "methods of chilling" change over time with legislation etc.
Clearly Viridian represent players in the cannabis space, as well as the CBD space, and the tobacco alternative space, and I think this was a more generalised comment.
Nobody is suggesting CBD will replace alcohol.....
The simple fact is Chill, either in its products, or even the reselling of others, are in that "lifestyle space"
They have their own products and can continue to bring out pretty much anything "Chill" as time moves on, they can also look to sell others products in the "Chill space" that don't directly compete with its own product lines, with the Chill web domain.
The trolls have continued their argument from first laughing about "flogging CBD out of garages" to then knocking the CBD market in general, to underestimating the tobacco cessation market, to then acknowledging it, then suggesting big tobacco will consume all in this space etc....
The trolling will continue to change from one narrative to another, but as the "non-linear rollout" moves into its next phases the "no updates / no numbers" narrative will fade and die, just like the "no stores" argument before that.
The company will still hit its 10,000 store target, on time, and it will have a non-linear rollout...
The translation for the above is to simply expect, at any point, a "Chill is in X stores", which is significantly above the previous store announcement, and then the same to happen again.
The shorts will not get a period of time in which to correct their positions, because it won't be "we are rolling again at x00 stores a week"
Things will jump in chunks, and alongside additional stores, will be additional SKU's appearing in stores, and online.
Now the SP has remained in this range, having not priced in the Rhino Marketing tie-up, not priced in the Viridian tie up and not priced in or understood the non-linear rollout, nor the TFN product announcement.
I would imagine stores going from the previously announced 2500 towards 10,000 in a short period of time, alongside new products being in those stores, alongside an IR drive in the USA... to put quite the squeeze on any short positions.
To put in context, being in 2,500 stores with 5-6 SKU's (3 flavours of CBD chew pouch, and either the 2 CBD Isolate Smokes or those + Hemp Smokes) is one thing. Being in 2,500 stores with 8-9 SKU's (The TFN pouches in one strength being added) is practically the same as a 50% uplift in stores from the original distribution deal(s).....
It's just a waiting game...
All I am doing is trying to understand how a company that has admitted ( like lots of others) that it has a distribution problem which probably means it can only just, maybe it can't fulfil orders from its existing 3,000 stores to keep them stocked and protect revenue . On top of this they have stated apparently they will also rollout to another 7,000 stores in a six month timeline , and put product on shelf, and also return to keep these 7,000 stores replenished while they do it.
It goes without saying its a waist of time making just one visit to a new shop, and never being able to visit it again for along time to restock it.
Don't get me wrong i would be very happy if they achieved this 10,000 outlets by Match 22 - I'm just asking the question HOW? considering the circumstances.
Where have they said they are struggling to fullfil orders to the existing 3000 stores?
This is one of the most boring discussions I’ve seen on here ffs linear v non linear , who really cares as what can we discuss ? Punctures ! Traffic jams in the US ,why not discuss the exciting products that chill could venture into !
in that case, Owen...just ordered my tickets for city v brugges 03/10 ...mate sitting next to me...so linear seats ?? my topup earlier must have caused this utterly catastrophic sp decline...ah well. could be worse...like be a leeds fan !
MATT...I assume the greened out one is the daft chuckle...just ask him/her how many shares it holds....linear or otherwise !!
He would be lying if he said more than zero! We all know he's NOT a shareholder just an annoying troll trying to interrupt any good news or posts that come up here.
All i was referring to was that that CHILL have admitted they have had a distribution problem throughout the year, you only have to look at the numbers. according to RNS releases
Nov 20 - 250 outlets in first ,
April 21 ( no number given) stated on target for 3,500 outlets by July,
May 21 stated had 2,000 outlets....
July 21 stated it had 2,500 ( 1000) less than predicted in April....
Silence...
and I said "which probably means it can only just, maybe it can't fulfil orders from its existing 3,000 stores to keep them stocked and protect revenue ....." in light of their 10,000 target ......"On top of this they have stated apparently they will also rollout to another 7,000 stores in a six month timeline ,"
How are they going to do both? that's was my question.
Like I said, where does it say they "can't fulfil orders from its existing 3000 stores to keep them stocked and protect revenue"??? - You've completely made up this falsehood as you do soooo many other times?
You also say that "they have stated apparently" - again putting doubt into the sentence when you know for the AGM that they didn't "apparently" say anything!
Once again prime examples of you trying to make mischief on here for a share you don't own (maybe have shorted - i'd like to think you have or you're wasting lots of time on something that you have no stake in)! These are typical of the reasons why the vast majority of the posters here have you greened out for being a Troll!!!!
As for your transportation/distribution questions then why not email the BOD's and ask them and then you can come back on here with their answer so you can finally post something worthwhile!
Assume there is something behind the restocking statement……wouldn’t it make better business sense to slow down the roll out to ensure new customers can get their resupply, rather than a taster and move onto a new rival product, which is kept on the shelf?
All of this thread is pie-in-the-sky stuff, with everyone jumping at everyone else because no one has any proof of anything. It’s all very playground and lends nothing other than point scoring to this discussion board.
If this is “pie in the sky” then why “assume there is something in …”???
Instead why not trust the latest update on store count as it’s the most up to date info we have and more relevant than Vas “Nov 2020”” statement.
Do you think they would have made the claim of 10,000 stores without thinking they could actually do it? And without neglecting the re orders??
where does it say not enough stock to roll out to new stores ??
IF there was a stock shortage, then yes, maybe keep those stores restocked, but only prob I am aware of is the distribution, aka worldwide problem re drivers.
If I have missed something in an rns to state a stock shortage I stand corrected,
ps..we had circa a full week recently with virtually zero trolls inputting their nonsense dressed as meaningful discussion....bring it back
chill betablockers !!!