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As always Jimmy thanks for your expert analysis always appreciated
SpeedF,
With regard to the cpr there really is a lot going on.
My reading of the situation based on the limited published data for each reservoir is as follows.
1. The A sand had been expected to pinch out towards the anchois north fault, but in fact was encountered at the anchois 2 well location and recovered gas . The last map showed the reservoir extending to the anchois north fault and continuing into anchois north. Increase from audited reserve expected.
2. Sand B , an extra 25 meter net gas pay sand encountered not previously included in audited reserves. A review of the seismic profile does indicate to me that extra B sand is not latterly extensive across the field, so will need to be re mapped and possibly seismic reprocessed to map fully. Extra reserves not included in audited reserves .
3. The C and M sands have more sands packages than prognosis , likely that some of the extra 50 meters of net pay are in this package zone. Seismic to be reprocessed to laterally map thin reservoir packages. Extra reserves not included in audited reserves to be added here. Clearly these sands also extend into anchois north and can be classified as probable proven reserves in anchois north.
4. The sand comprises of two reservoirs instead of the forecast one reservoir. While gas was found in a small part of the O sand, it looks like it encountered a gas water contact. A review of the seismic profile indicates that the anchois 2 well located may have entered the O sand in a separate fault compartment , and hence down dip the O sand has a separate gas water contact and is mostly gas filled as per the Avo And spectral decomposition maps. I suspect this is the area that reserve auditors require additional work before signing off on gas downdip.
With seven reserveroir sands , it struck me as odd that they mapped seven gas water contacts , which would indicate sealing shales between each reservoir, I suspect they have been too conservative in their interpretation but more time and analysis us required before signing off on further upside.
So lots of good news but more work to do to finalise .
Jimmy
i'm okay with that as long as we have no pettifoggers involved, which is my concern.
If anyone can get the full write up from Simon Thompson then any insights would be appreciated
And the company got some capital too which derisks operations in general
As Sniper88 says this was most likely an insider buying opportunity. I was honestly surprised to see them close the offering -- oversubscribed no less -- the very next day after announcing it after close. The hands had been shaken in advance already, people wanted to buy a lot of shares at the current price without the headache of moving the needle too much. Anf
True mitegap, but wouldn’t AP be looking to offload the shares that he already had rather than buying more if he had no confidence in the project?
If the net pay has been exaggerated (I don’t think it has) and the CPR will be disappointing to some, the placing price of 18p (2% discount) and the fact it was oversubscribed by 25% and closed within a matter of hours, does not add up to me.
I still stand by the initial thoughts; those participating in the raise were all insiders and this is the only window they have to pile in before the CPR is released. The fact the offering was discounted by such a tiny amount and still hammered into, makes me think the gas resource chariot have in Anchois will not be a disappointment. Why would they be able to raise a huge amount of money in less than one day, at basically little to no discount to buying shares off the open market if things were not looking very rosy behind closed doors.
Small investment compared to his total stake!
I don't understand why AP would buy more shares if he had no confidence in the project OldHebriddean.
That the placing was before the updated reserves figure is published. Looks like either the BoD and pals want an even bigger share of the cake for themselves or the updated reserves may bot be as great as hoped for. If the BoD had any confidence in this project then they could have got a higher price further down the line.