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rossannan,
Only just noticed this post.
It is not just Armenia. Their other area of operating is Kyrgyzstan which has just effectively gone through a coup! When both your operating areas have gone through such upheaval, it is hardly surprising that the company's share price is affected for both direct reasons (impact on operating performance in Kapan as a result of employees being conscripted) and indirect reasons (delay to financing Tulkubash development).
It is good to see that Kapan's performance has remained robust despite the conflict and EBITDA has gone through the roof in H2 (despite curiously low sale of production). Guidance up for 2021 and operations look to be entering a decent period of stable cash generation.
Yes I am laughing up 18% since you posted on track to meet production glad I bought
There is certainly a sense that it needs the gold price to rescue it from itself, even when you make allowances for recent events in Armenia. CGH is not exactly the shining star of my collection of gold juniors. But that’s why you don’t put all of your eggs in one basket.
New broker.... My guess is there's a takeover in the air. Looking at the new brokers website they do like a takeover.
I take it that you believe a war and civil unrest in their two areas of operation have not in any way contributed to this being 'a joke'?
The whole point of CGH is to build a company in areas of the world that are not particularly popular. That is going to lead to something that is hardly for widows and orphans.
I'm in (then it dropped). Hoping for a decent result from Kapan with silver "With US$4.2m Kapan EBITDA contribution in July and a similar expected profitability for the remainder of the year" looking good , peace(ish) in Armenia to continue and the loan re-organised fingers crossed for a decent year.
I said this 15 months ago on this board, and I say it again. Massively overvalued and piling on more debt while burning cash. No-one would lend to them anymore, so Mr Anderson steps in to the rescue, now to a tune of $30m. Well, at least it would generate him a nice $3m revenue stream, which shareholders will ultimately finance. Good for him!
It is incredible to realize that if I'd shorted this back when I looked at this in Sept 2019, I would have been proven right and would have made a profit DESPITE the massive rally in gold price in the intervening period. Terrible.
That's Military agro for you! Hopefully now it's over we should steadily rise back towards 40p.
I genuinely thought that PoG would have seen this back at 25p at least by now.
Anyway, have a Happy New Year one and all.
pablo2
I’m not a great fan of guys in Artem’s position expressing a view on the share price - that’s our job, not his. Hopefully he is right though. It will take some time for the likes of CGH and AAZ to recover the sentiment lost through the recent conflict.
That's a decent Top up!
Reckon that's great news today re-organising the loan so it's all settled till well after the gold starts pouring from Tulkubash.
Got an email back from Artem yesterday, after I asked anything taking the sp down, any news coming or are they hunkered down for winter :
Hi Pabs,
We are still working - in our countries of operations, holidays start from 1 Jan.
Share price is unjustifiably low. No particular reason, may be after-march of the war in Armenia, but we are doing very well there in spite of all. Yes, we plan for operational update as usual early in the new year and working hard on all other fronts as well
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Best,
Artem
*50,000 shares in fact
Well, FWIW I bought 5,000 shares and also topped up my SB on the back of it.
Any thoughts?
Lobsi,
You need to understand the nature of the assets. The Armenian operation has only recently been acquired and was underperforming. This is gradually being improved and the EBITDA contribution is growing but it is polymetalic so the gold price alone is not the only factor and capital investment is ongoing.
But the larger asset is in Kyrgyzstan and this requires a lot more capital.
It is hardly surprising that the company as a whole is not profitable even though Kapan is. Better to judge on the assets (which are very large) until Tulkubash is operational.
I asked Artem what he thought of the political situation re. Armenians dissatisfaction and that article maybe suing us in the Krygyz. He quickly replied last night :
Hi pabs,
Armenia: the peace is likely to hold given the presence of Russian peacekeeping force. The politics is politics and will follow a proper democratic process.
KR: The legal case is not against Chaarat, we are not being sued and there is absolutely no grounds for any legal action against Chaarat. It is just that our name was mentioned in the press and we need to stand up for our clean reputation, which we will absolutely defend.
Best,
Artem
-----------------------------------------------------------
Hope he's right in Armenia and doesn't seem unduly worrying now in the Krygyz
This is a gold producing company however inspite of rising gold prices they have made a LOSS !!
Why ?
What is the 142m valuation for - even after the fall it looks expensive
Conflict in area now looks to be over. Great RNS for holders but is strangely quiet here
On track despite Covid and area tensions - looking to mitigate risk to ensure target achievement. I’d say the recent insider by was a very good one
Significant?
They have assets in a war zone and a country that has just changed power in dubious circumstances so it is not surprising that there is some disquiet!
Yet share price continues to fall? Anyone any idea why such large drops?
The military action in Armenia must be pretty bad!! The share price as nose dived over the last few months?