Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Dekel can pull this off...just needs a little competitive pressure (or hint of competition) to get deep pockets to pony up ...unbelievably cheap for such a resource imv
So those two trades today accounted for - sounded like Big trades but when I check the ££ there still small - come on! So, just 2 trades on ISDX of about £80 to account for and that's everything. Alligin - don't know why Dekel doesn't average down.
@4.9p..free carry effectively ...decent numbers in feasibility study...esp the low AISC
it's been useful to read holders perspectives on the RNS. Having thought it through and listened to Dekel's interview, I have decided to add to my holding here so bought 35,425 this morning to take me to 100,000 at 7.7p. Considering my first purchase 6 years or so ago was 6,000 at 49p, I'm pleased to have an average that gives me a chance of escaping here with a profit. My view is that the potential and positives here far outweigh the pull down factors, the former being, in no particular order; a world class resource, ultra cheap extraction costs, heavy II and board investment at a much higher price than my average; a low number of shares in issue. If we add to that the building upward pressure on the spot gold price and a likely supply fall, this is a no-brainer really. It's just interminably slow progress being involved. However, having waited 6 years to get to this point, I'm sure I can hang around a while longer. GLA and enjoy your weekend.
What must they be thinking? They were buying stock at more than three times the price it is now! I'm sure they must've expressed concerns to Dekel about strategy. a rough calculation of the value of the asset, I come up with approx 50p.
If he is changing his tune again (which he maybe) its probably because he realises the Chinese are trying to shaft him with an overly conservative DFS - thereby taking value out of the project and getting the asset on the cheap. I guess this is his way of trying to say they aint gonna get it on the cheap. Over his dead body! No point decrying the past couple of years though. Whats done is done. At the time, when they decided not to go ahead and produce, and instead do the DFS, people came around to the idea that it was actually a better strategy at the time.
I think this has llways been his preferred option. Before this DFS stuff, they were getting ready to do exactly that. If they do decide to go for this option, I just feel this is like 3 years wasted. The DFS is good, but CGH could as well been producing now, albeit, on a smallish scale.
Yes, I was surprised to hear Dekel say his preferred option was to take it gradually into production making money to furnish the next stage as she grows. He used to say he wished to Sell. Perhaps he is realising that getting a price now to make him in the money, which I think needs to be at least 40p, is nigh on impossible in the current environment. He should average down but don't think he's bought any shares for 4 years or so.
Gold up again CGH down again what's next
Cheers. Yep agree about timescales and event timing - all impossible to predict. A gold price rally could and should help here though. Every $ rise in gold improves the economics. OLI - my view here has always been that they would sell the asset to the Chinese. Anything else is hot air. Dekel has previously said that is their end game. By saying any different now well he's just playing games. No way he wants to try and take a large project like this to production. It was always about extracting value by the issue of DFS and then look to sell.
Depressing to watch this sink to new lows. I don’t doubt the quality of the Chaarat asset BUT I have seen many AIM companies with “world class assets” go under leaving shareholders with nothing. How can a company expect to raise hundreds of millions with a market cap circa £14m. If we have any expressions of interest to by this project for anywhere near the NPV of $351 it needs to be explored IMO – long suffering holders should be rewarded rather than diluted to oblivion.
Nice one, welcome back. I don't suppose there's much downside from here but on the other hand I can't see us do anything but drift around until more definite news. Think we will get the DFS within a reasonable time and then we need Dekel to make his mind up which way we want to go and push hard for that solution. Good interview he gave yesterday and we really can't commit one way or the other yet, nor is the DFS sign-off timing in our hands. So, really, although very frustrating, all is right with the Chaarat camp and even the Price of Gold is behaving.
Pretty much agree with all your thoughts. This has always remained a good board with sensible balanced posters in good and bad times. You are entitled though to feel fed up! Given that things never seem to happen quickly here I give this a 6-12mth timeframe to yield a decent profit. Btw I made a typo with the MC it's not £23m but a quite astonishing £13m for a company with just shy of 5m ozs of gold.
Oh how I would like to buy my current holding at today's price. I think your purchase is wise and will yield a great return for you. Quite when is another matter. Well done you. I agree probably a few PIs just moving on. Maybe took a punt on the DFS doing something dramatic and as it hasn't they have lost patience. This is certainly a buy and hold share. BUT could ignite at any point with an offer or announcement of JV or confirmation of loan or final release of actual DFS or any number of things.
I've just re-entered here purchasing 57626 @ 4.82p. I reckon buying into the company at a MC of just shy of £23m is good business. As for a few PI's selling? Well who can blame them, they may have waited a long time, seen the announcement and disappointed thrown in the towel. I'm not 100% confident because Dekel does mention the word 'dilution' a few times but this, I hope, is largely baked into the current depressed SP - if it happens at all. Even at this price it's a bit of a punt but IMO worth it.
Not me, I'm innocent
This has got to be the most depressing share in existence. We wait over a year for a DFS that is going to set the company on fire and send the share price rocketing... and the when it come out the share price goes DOWN. Total and utter joke. I give up. Meanwhile gold price going up; other gold miners going up. Is the fact that this is a world class deposit mean nothing to anyone? Who is selling? And why. The proceeds of any sell are next to nothing so surely better to just hold. WHO IS SELLING? If you are selling talk to us and explain your thoughts...
We may not be in a closed period now - no definite offer or JV exists. Linda told me it's often not black and white on these closed periods and Directors need to consult with Chairman sometimes even if outside proximity to reporting dates. AGM not until July and held in Baker St London last year. Would be good to go this year to celebrate our wonderful company and it's rocketing sp - lol, or make some delicate points to mgmt. Dekel isn't that easy to follow in interviews but Israeli is his first language. I've got over the disappointment first experienced yesterday as, what happened. We were given a sneak preview of the DFS as it's taking the Chinese authorities so long to put pen to paper (no-one's fault).
Good analysis of Dekel's interview chaps. If things are half as positive as he makes out then this is a HOLD and wait. (you could even say a screaming buy) One would imagine the BoD would LOVE to fill their boots at these prices - but I guess they are in a closed period given we have options to sell or JV the project. I guess Dekel would never say he wants to sell the project as this would weaken his negotiating position with any buyer for the project. That said any suitor only needs Labro Investments and China Nonferrous onside for a take over - they control over 30% of the share capital (before options are exercised) Would Labro Investments really want to wait and risk dilution... or sell now for a nice profit. For me I'd rather sell the whole project now if we can get 20p + for it. We are a small company, operating in a difficult financial environment in a RISKY country - for me its a no brainer to sell. I would be tempted to PUSH for such strategy at the next AGM. (we have struggled to produce a DFS for several years... never mind construct an actual gold mine)
Good points about original shareholders and of course that includes Dekel and some of Bod. They really don't want to be letting this go for anything even remotely under 50p. I suppose that is why he does prefer the 2nd operation to go into small scale operation and build up over Selling outright. Don't think we could get any buyer willing to pay 50p+ so, as he hasn't averaged down like most of us, he'd be selling at a loss I think. Anyway, it's a good interview and I remain the eternal optimist (I don't like 'the incorrigible optimist"). I think that interview might help in the short term as it tends to reduce uncertainty, which is always the sp killer for any share.
Ten times current market cap only puts share price at 50p. That might sound fantastic to recent entrants but original shareholders have funded this company at prices up to 60p in the past. For the original shareholders to get a decent return out of this we need to see £1 minimum over next few years. Interesting that Dekel favours option 2 which is to build out the mine ourselves starting with small scale open pit route - this obviously keeps the future profits in house and would secure maximum return... BUT over a longer time frame. He stated that certain shareholders would favour immediate sale. Personally I think I would prefer option 3 - a JV with giant Chinese company as long as entry price is around 40-50p. This route would enable us to get plenty of working capital to rapidly bring mine into full production. Seems like a compromise between option 1 and 2? Anyway, wonder what will move share price in the short term...? A higher price would make Dekel's job easier - which option he goes for. PS I like the fact that both Dekel and the interviewer are speaking English to each other as a second language. Impressive.
Thanks for posting that link of Dekel speaking today. Although his accent makes him a difficult chap to listen to he is certainly painting a great picture here. He says the DFS gives us a value of ten times our market cap and yet time and time again he stresses this is very conservative. He gives actual figures on shipping costs and equipment that have been over-charged in the DFS to 30% or even 50%. He stresses how we've only scratched the surface with the current outline of this resource and how there are quite a few ways we can develop this mine profitably. Perhaps Nerin need to be commended on their production of the report which he states must be similar to the mine they've already got running in China. We are waiting on regulatory sign-off - nobody's fault. Looks to me like all is well and we've been given a bit more insight today into the massive future for this company. Not today, but success and reward are still coming IMO. (signed the incorrigible optimist, pablo - thanks alligin)
Worth spending 9 mins to listen to the interview. It's one of his better ones and he does paint a rosy picture at the end when it comes to options. (HOLD) maybe he knows what the Chinese will pay even on a rainy day is many multiples of the current SP.
I can only liken today's RNS to the anticipation of lighting a firework once on New Years Eve. It cost £50 and was supposed to light up the skies in a flood of exploding colour. When I lit it and hastily retreated, it fizzed a little.... and then threw out a few sparks... and then died, much to my three son's amusement. I am stunned into disbelief at the RNS and the market reaction and need to sleep on it before re-reading it I suppose. I'm not invested big here, by any means, but I really feel for those who are, especially the incorrigible optimist, Pablo. The RNS is seriously vague and I really feel now that the board have let shareholders down and need to be held to account. To be continued..... after a beer and a good kip, hopefully.