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Thanks for posting the reply from Linda. For those who may not be so familiar with Charaat Linda is the finance officer and she has some skin in the game (1m shares I think) bought at a higher price. That is excellent news regarding the tunnel. In addition a substantial $150m reduction in capex would also be highly positive. As you say maybe they can squeeze out more and the figure quoted is conservative. Incidentally and slightly off topic I attended Zak Mirs Traders Cafe last night and whilst quaffing all the free wine on offer there was a talk with the boss of Legendary Investments. LEG is an investment co. and last Oct they purchased a stake in a gold exploration company in the Kyrygz republic. Being lazy I can't remember its name but a Kyrygz guy from this company was also there. I had short chat with him and it turns out he comes from near the Charaat site! I told him I was a Charaat shareholder and his eyebrows raised slightly. He wasn't able to tell me a great deal in the short time we had but he did say it was a 'lovely area' but a looong winter. He also confirmed he was aware they had a lot of gold at good grades (which we know anyway). I should've got his card but might be able to get further contact through the boss man.
Bang goes that theory ! Anyway, she tells me we've eliminated the need for a tunnel through life of mine - didn't know that. "As you rightly recall we determined that the construction of the tunnel was not required for the initial 10 years of the project and a technical solution has now been established to remove the need for the tunnel altogether. As I am sure you are aware the NPV (net present value) of a project is a function of the initial investment, the flow of revenues and the discount rate at which the “present” value is calculated. Therefore the lower the initial investment the higher the NPV of a project, so eliminating the tunnel cost has added value to the project. The term “Initial capital” in our announcement refers to the capital expenditure and construction work to be completed during the first three years of the project. This will bring the production and processing capacity to capacity. At a later stage of the project additional capital expenditure is required; for example, after the ore in the open pits has been extracted, underground mines are to be developed beneath the open pit area. These costs are treated as capital for accounting purposes. The work on optimisation of the study is continuing. The fall in material and machinery prices (for example fuel and cyanide costs)and the devaluation of the Kyrgyz currency will have a positive effect on the economics of the study. As and when the work is completed we will, of course, communicate the results to our shareholders. Numis has commented as follows: “..but capex weighs well above our expectation - The capex estimate of US$684 million was more than double our previous estimate of US$320 million, however, we believe that there should be a number of opportunities to optimise this given the deflationary pressure on input costs and the highly competitive environment for mine development work amongst contractors. Should the company be able to reduce capex by US$150 million then this would increase our NAV by 30% to US$494 million and increase our IRR to 23%.” -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The current DFS prediction of IRR @ $1250 an oz is 15.3%, so a step up to 23% would be significant. Personally think we can jiggle this higher. Anyway, interesting comprehensive reply which she told me was delayed because she was travelling. Don't think that was sightseeing.
Another snippet re. gold always quoted in US $ : "Legendary mining entrepreneur and gold bug Rob McEwen has never made his prediction secret: he thinks gold will go to US$5,000 an ounce, and probably a lot higher. But in the meantime, he thinks investors aren’t paying full attention to the fact that gold is on a pretty outstanding run right now. The issue, simply put, is currency. “People have just been so blinded by the fact that the price is quoted in U.S. dollars,” the executive chairman of McEwen Mining Inc. said at a luncheon presentation. He noted that gold isn’t far from its all-time highs in Canadian dollars and numerous other currencies. He thinks mining equities, including his own, should benefit as more investors recognize that reality." ------------------------------------ Thanks for recommendation Dibs and get in there Jimzi ! Reckon news could be imminent based on the theory Linda(finance) seems too busy or unable to reply to me. It's a theory !
Cheers for this Nice and honest like the rest of the bb ( and nice and quiet!!) Looks a fairly safe one v reward
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=824487 Gold @ $8,000
There is a small element of political risk (due to issues with a completely separate case) but I believe Charaat do have a constructive relationship with the authorities I suppose further delays in progressing the project is another potential risk/downside Charaat will need to raise funds at some point in the next year All that said this is very cheap indeed in relation to hard assets in the ground. The DFS displayed a robust project. The capex was high but can be optimised considerably. AISC v low. Good grades etc I reckon this is worth 50p to take out Btw I would say pablo2 is the most informed poster on this board and I'm sure he'll correct any mistakes I've made.
Don't know much about miners but looking at a hedge share Re macro stuff on the markets. BS looks good from june 2015, high % out of free float, location safe-ish, good resource at good cost ext, and known suitors. So far looks like the best goldy not in production by a way - any downsides I have missed [apart from no news for years!!]
I'm not greedy ;) Come on Charaat this is worth way more than 6.75p!
Chaarat Gold Holdings’ (CGH) “Buy” Rating Reaffirmed at Numis Securities Ltd March 7th, 2016 - By Jennifer Langley Chaarat Gold Holdings Ltd - Numis Securities Ltd reiterated their buy rating on shares of Chaarat Gold Holdings Ltd (LON:CGH) in a report released on Friday morning, Marketbeat.com reports. They currently have a GBX 25 ($0.35) target price on the stock. --------------------------- So 25p for Numis (our broker !)
Good research and yes excellent news for us by way of comparison and further optimisation of DFS. All good. Just a waiting game.
Interesting latest figures for Kumtor : "According to Centerra, Kumtor accounted for up to 10% of the Central Asian state’s gross domestic product, up to 25% of all Kyrgyz industry, and up to half of the country’s exports. Last year, the Kumtor mine put in a stellar performance, exceeding production guidance by 3% at 536 921 oz and reducing all-in sustaining costs by 5% to $814/oz, which underpinned the company’s strong financial performance. Perry noted that Centerra had been optimising the Kumtor business by trimming the work force 10% in 2015 to about 2 500 employees, and it was now turning its attention to re-evaluating third-party contracts. The low fuel price, which accounted for about a third of operating costs, and a much-devalued Kyrgyzstani Som had boosted margins. Perry said that with about 5.6-million openpit ounces remaining, Kumtor provided the company with a low-cost, long-life platform from which to grow its business. Kumtor also had future expansion possibilities underground, where about 200 000 oz of gold grading 10.9 g/t were currently located in the inferred resource." http://www.miningweekly.com/article/fully-funded-centerra-on-track-to-hit-a-million-ounces-annually-by-end-of-decade-2016-03-08 - this 1m ounces involves ALL of Centerra's mines, i.e. several outside the Krygyz. ----------------------------- Much devalued Som - excellent. Low-fuel costs - excellent. All-in $814 an oz - higher than our expected costs - excellent. 2,500 employees at Kumtor !
I like your thinking regarding only one Chinese company will be given the Chinese govt go-ahead. Think that is the way they work and of course nothing like this can occur before DFS sign-off. The way Dekel wrote, it is the Govt who are the client for the DFS and until they are satisfied, and IMO everything is in place for the future financing, we will not get sign-off. Labro (Wilshire Fasanara) I think must be very supportive of our company. Initially, while they were building up to around 20%, Linda and co. denied any knowledge as to who they were or there game. They are now, it seems, just an investment vehicle and are now up to their necks in Chaarat and will be supportive to see us through to success. With regards investment v. hostile takeover. There is NO possibility of a hostile takeover without Labro and they are currently blocked from further purchasing - so they would have to show their hand with any small share purchase. Elsewhere, there are not enough shares in free-float to mount a hostile bid. You cannot simply multiply the shares in issue by the sp (which gets the Mkt Cap obviously) and think if someone is willing to pay that much(£18m) they could buy the whole shooting match. They can't. If they started buying, the sp would rocket and anyway without Labro they couldn't buy more than about 40% - officially the Free Float is about 55% in total. So we sit and wait, basically on the Chinese Govt.
Pablo, hopefully the Chinese regulatory approval will be issued shortly – I assume this will then allow Chinese companies / Chinese banks to fund / finance any JV / take over Chaarat. As I have previously mentioned one Chinese company will be awarded the right to negotiate with Chaarat on any investment. Optimistically I still hope the company “raising funds” will make a formal approach however Chaarat has never delivered despite all the “interest” over the years – I assume this company is NOT Chinese! For me sale is the only option – we will never raise the funds and we will never find a JV partner willing to invest £50m for say 60% of the asset when you can buy the whole project for a lot less – naturally the company cannot say this as it weakens their negotiating position with any suitor. I would love to know our largest shareholders position on all this – I don’t think they have any intention of funding / building / running a gold mine! The wait goes on Chaaraters.
Thanks for that info but obviously this is going nowhere with 1 trade today (zero on ISDX) and that a Sell. I've asked Linda twice now to confirm some of the figures in the draft DFS re. 'the tunnel' but she seems to have quit on me at the moment. When she's in China she never emails ?! I suppose my theory on DFS signoff and funding or JV or Outright Sale coming together is (possibly) looking more likely. It's getting pretty impossible to have enthusiasm that there will be a stonking RNS in the morning - after about 300 - 400 let downs.
I tried a few dummy trades at various levels - you cannot buy any for less than 7p - and even then stock is scarce. Any buying pressure will push this back up to 10p level quickly.
What we wouldn't do for 25p lol….
Chaarat Gold Holdings Ltd (LON:CGH) had its stock rating noted as “Buy” by analysts at Numis. Numis currently has a GBX 25.00 price target on the 18.60 million GBP market cap company or 284.02% upside potential. This was revealed in analysts report on Friday, 4 March.
Up and down like a Yo-yo - going down again.
You spoke too soon. $25 bounceback after the initial dip to reach a new high. I think some people are going to take some convincing that we are in a new gold bull market. But we are.
That we are almost back to the level that we where three months ago when gold was 1050, pretty poor.
Don't count your chickens....POG tumbled back to $1254 odd on exceptional non-farm payroll figures.
With the gold price strong and rising we can relax a bit more here. Let the Chinese take their time. If Gold continues to rise time will no longer be on their side and the NPV's in the DFS will have to be substantially upgraded with new gold prices! Which means they pay more and we are in a stronger position all round.
A commentator on Bloomberg earlier in the week expecting to see gold $1300/oz in the near term.
what is the hold up with chinese surely they know if they want the mine or not by now and how much they want to pay
Gold price storming up. Now @ $1274. Bid has just been raised here and would expect this to start to rise again in response to very strong gold price.