Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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The last time US inflation was this high, you were a lot younger
Last month, the US “core” consumer price index rose at an annual rate of 3%. That was a lot higher than expected. Meanwhile, headline prices (which include volatile things not in the “core” reading, like fuel and food) rose by 4.2%.
All in, it was a big increase. And yes, you can pick at the argument. You can point out (rightly) that there are serious “base” effects here (in other words, prices collapse in April 2020 during the pandemic, so you’d expect them to bounce).
You can also point out (rightly), that almost all of the surge in prices was driven by “reopening” plays. As Michael Pearce of Capital Economics notes, the price of plane tickets jumped, the price of hotel rooms soared, and the price of car rental jumped by more than 16%.
That sort of price rise is a genuine one-off and it’s exactly what you’d expect. When you can’t fly anywhere, a plane ticket is worthless. When you’re suddenly allowed to go on holiday after being stuck in one place for over a year, a plane ticket is, if not quite priceless, as close as it’s going to get.
So it’s easy to see why this surge in demand meeting sectors that have been shut down for 12 months or so has pushed prices up so aggressively.
Still. All the analysts and experts already knew this stuff when they were making their forecasts. So either these one-off surges were just a lot more powerful than their models had suggested – or we’re on the verge of something a little more durable than just one-off rebounds.
There are certainly signs – as I pointed out earlier in the week – that US employees are demanding and getting higher wages, even while many people remain out of work. More importantly, they have the popular and political support to do so.
And it’s not just about inflationary forces. A deeper point, made by Louis Gave of research group Gavekal, is that many of the most powerful disinflationary forces – primarily, though not exclusively, the globalisation of trade and the massive expansion of the global workforce – of the 30 to 40 years or so, are behind us now.
In other words, there are plenty of inflationary forces and no obvious disinflationary ones to offset them.
Why tech stocks in particular don’t like rising inflation
We can argue about this all day and I suspect we’ll be doing so for some time. But what’s clear is that stockmarkets took the news badly. That’s because they’re worried that higher inflation will force the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, to raise interest rates earlier than expected. And the worst-hit were the tech stocks, with the Nasdaq index falling hardest on the day.
This makes sense. The problem for tech stocks is that rising inflation is a losing environment for them either way. Even if the Fed doesn’t raise rates to combat inflation, the longer-term value of money still falls (because inflation reduces the value of tomorrow’s money).
Inflation in the US smashes expectations (equals widening negative real rates)
Israel fighting Hamas potentially leading to a ground war
Tesla no longer accepting Bitcoin for its vehicles
All bode well for gold, and yet we are down. Go figure
Hi Hedgehogg,
Anyone that is in Bitcoin must be very brave or foolish, anyone that is in gold is very wise and fortunate as things are panning out!
Coming back to Centamin its about 109p holding on a rising support line. Do not be surprised if we hit it tomorrow or early next week. Gold was overbought and its a shakeout until its oversold or just not overbought. This could take days or weeks.
On the verge of some big market moves. Bitcoin finally tanking on the way to its real value. Inflation looming, though people are trying to say interest rates will go up. Show me a government can afford to raise interest rates. Gold always been good for inflation, it’s the reason we are all here, because we don’t trust their devious ways. Big market swings like 2020. Let’s hope gold performs again like last year.
Well done Cowichan!
Thank you for all your hard work and taking the trouble to write on behalf of all share holders.
It suggests CEY haven't signed yet but hopefully not far away.
It would require quite fundamental changes to the UK food supply chain and a huge reduction in product choice to move to a self-sustained system!
Longtime investor and board reader checking in as I just came across this link:
Egypt signs new gold exploration contract worth $5.2m
Daily News Egypt
... four Egyptian companies, the most prominent of which are: Centamin; Medaf; Park Gold; Al-Abadi; Red Sea Resources; Nubian Mines; North Africa; ... https://dailynewsegypt.com/2021/05/13/egypt-signs-new-gold-exploration-contract-worth-5-2m/
We need to import over 400,000 tonnes of fresh tomatoes every year to meet demand. “The retail value of British tomato production... is around £190 million out of a total retail market value of £740 million,” the organisation explains. So we’d need a hell of a lot more polytunnels to get anywhere near self-sufficiency. Our pasta sauces and our salads would suffer for quite some time, never mind the investment required.
Sheffield University’s professor Duncan Cameron is the co-director of the Institute for Sustainable Food. He says we should be thinking about the sort of food system we want rather than how that system is acquired.
“Personally, and academically, I think the issue of self-sufficiency is a classic case of the wrong question.
“We talk of an air of Little England, and quasi-nationalism in relation to food. That might be present. But with sustainability and food security, we need to think about what sort of diet we want.
“When we talk about buying British, it’s difficult to know what that actually means. We generally do with lamb, but we all still want to drink coffee and eat mangoes. It’s hard to see how far it can go.
“Certainly there is a logical case to be made for a more local and seasonal food system. That’s usually the more sustainable option, but it isn’t always, even when taking food miles into account.
“Tomatoes are grown under the sun in Spain – they’re more sustainable than tomatoes grown here in a polytunnel. It’s not always that local is best.
“Another overlooked point is where does the labour come from? Say we did all buy British exclusively, who would grow and pick the fruit and vegetables? Around 30% of food manufacturing is filled by EU workers. It’s more in the summer.
“We need these skills and we have a heavy reliance on EU workers. Our food industry wouldn’t exist without a migrant workforce.”
It ought to be supposed that there might be a degree of short-sightedness in this sudden, overarching premise of buying British, not only as a regenerative motion but as a political standpoint!
It works in some aspects but falls well short in others. And as it pushes on, the tide of Union Flags waving triumphantly atop joints of roast pork and summer strawberries, let us spare a thought for bananas, and olive oil, for supermarkets would be all the more boring without them.
Dominic Goudie, the head of international trade at the Food and Drink Federation, is a force of balance if I am not: “UK manufacturers are committed customers of UK farming, and also depend on imports of ingredients that aren’t produced domestically or not in sufficient quantity.
These imports complement our use of UK-produced inputs and are key to delivering the world-leading choice, quality, and value for money enjoyed by UK shoppers.
“Ultimately, the UK’s food and drink manufacturing sector is driven by consumer demand and over time consumers have come to expect foods and ingredients from across the globe.
It would require quite fundame
We’re witnessing the toxification of the British brand!”
Joe Stanley says Europe is as important as ever, both when importing and exporting food!
We absolutely need to nurture trade links,” he says. “There’s a reason America is so desperate to sign a trade deal with us – because we’re a wealthy nation that imports a lot of food.
“It’s taken generations to foster relationships with our European partners to get the food system we have. Liz Truss thinks, ‘oh, Kuwait eats a lot of lamb, let’s go there’. Europe is full of wealthy people, and we should want to sell them our food.
“I’m sure people don’t want to go back to a diet of potatoes and cabbage. We were a culinary backwater. Everyone expects to be able to access a decent range of food. Sure, we should buy seasonal, and be local, but it cannot be only about that, realistically.”
The farmer and broadcaster Gareth Wyn Jones says the 'buy British' discourse is largely positive. After all, he says, last year was one of the best years for lamb, which was “up £1 per kilo”.
“I think it’s a really good thing. People are getting behind British agriculture. It’s about bloody time. We have a lot of bridges to cross.
“We should be adding to it – salad, fruit, veg. We need to be building that British economy on what we’re growing and eating. In the bigger picture we’ll be more sustainable, more seasonal, and with no added cost. We shouldn’t have strawberries in December and French beans from Kenya.”
But Wyn Jones adds that while the buying British sentiment is a welcome one, so too is continuing to nurture links with Europe.
“Diversity is good for food. We do have to ask ourselves, when it comes to cheaper food, ‘how is that produced?’ Do we want avocados brought in from Mexico, where its popularity is causing problems.
“But yes, as some who put Welsh lamb into Europe, I don’t want trade to stop. It’s one of the best products in the world. That’s why it’s imported. And yes, it works both ways. French Camembert. Spanish ham. Wine.
“But carrots – there is no reason why all our carrots shouldn’t be British. I was a Remainer. I want to stay in Europe. I’m not Nigel Farage screaming about buying British. But I’m also a farmer who cares about the environment, so there is a valid point to be made, however it’s dressed up.”
When it comes to carrots, we’re pretty good, actually. The British Carrot Growers Association says the UK grows approximately 800,000 tonnes of carrots annually and is self-sufficient for 11 months of the year.
Patterns get a little more drastic when it comes to food that favours a warmer locale. British tomato production amounts to about 92,000 metric tonnes per year, which is about a fifth of the total volume sold in the country in that timeframe, according to the British Tomato Growers’ Association.
We need to import over 400,000 tonnes of fresh tomatoes every year to meet demand. “The retail value of British tomato production... is around £190 million out of a total retail market
The link is very evident from the discussion sites exhorting people to buy British.
It might turn-off those who identify as Remainers, but isn't it ultimately a good thing?
After all, when it comes to sustainability, limiting food miles and making the most of our lush pastures, sought after since before the Roman empire, are only good.
Granted we should be elevating our food sector, which has, over recent decades, been evolving, diversifying, and improving in quality, and as the pandemic has shown, there is much to be said for shorter supply lines.
But just far can the 'buy British' exhortations get us?
If we applied it to all our purchases, would we have the food to get by?
In short, no, we would run out by August, according to experts!
The National Farmers’ Union says we are just over 60% efficient, and that is talking generally.
When it comes to vegetables, we grow less than 50% of what we consume, and fruit is even less, we produce just 15% of what we eat!
“For an island nation, being able to feed our population is absolutely critical,” NFU president Minette Batters said recently.
“Even as a global trading nation, shocks can expose fragilities in any reliance on imports.
We all experienced the impact of this during lockdown!
“Imports will always play a crucial role in our food system but our own self-sufficiency must be paid more attention by the government. It is stagnating. We sit now at only 64% self-sufficiency, having fallen from over 75% in the mid-1980s.”
There are lots of reasons for this fall, and, granted, some of them are down to cheaper goods, such as Danish bacon, and Polish apples, being shipped in. There are arguments to suggest concentrating on British pork and apples would be a positive repositioning of resources.
But since the 1980s, the British food system has also become a whole lot more adventurous. French Camembert is basically a staple now, and slices of Iberico ham are hardly luxuries.
We should probably not regress!
The farmer and author Joe Stanley says there has to be balance: “Is buying British fundamentally better? Just because it’s grown here doesn’t make it more sustainable.
“There is a lot to be proud about when it comes to British produce. We have the highest welfare standards in the world, some of the highest quality meat. When it comes to sustainability, let’s hope people buy British, and shop local, and support our industry. British consumers have been traditionally concerned with price, which is a more American mindset than a European one. So there’s a lot to celebrate if people are paying more attention to food.
“But it’s also a huge shame that the buy British mindset, this Union Jack patriotism, is getting tied up with nationalism.
The petty flag use we see in our government is altering things!
“We’re having these conversations about buying British, and at the same time we are straying into an unfortunate nationalistic territory.
cont
Good to hear from you Zambian & Lynny,
It is not just food. On the ‘Buy British’ Facebook group, recent requests for advice on UK-sourced homemade goods include everything from Lancashire sofa cushions to ‘leisure batteries’ power sources for mobile homes
Food, though, as it so often is, has become the foremost application in a new surge towards supporting British industry.
Since Brexit, there has been a tectonic shift in consumerism as shoppers look to champion UK-made goods, aware as they are perhaps of the additional costs of trading with Europe, of the benefits of contributing to the national economy, and possibly also to supplement national pride.
Whatever the reason, this collective desire is very apparent.
Recently, there was concern in one Facebook group that Quaker Oats are apparently made in Dublin!
Soon, other members were suggesting supermarket-own varieties, namely those produced by Aldi and Lidl, which are milled here on British shores, and are apparently still “smooth and creamy” when stirred with water as with milk.
Another social media post celebrated a bag of granulated sugar that displayed the words “proudly grown in Britain” on top of a Union Jack!
One man shared a picture of a chocolate bar, going so far as to explain the fact it is not only manufactured in Stoke-on-Trent, but is also the work of a British-owned company.
A double win, there, for British pride.
That said the supermarkets in Britain have long sold goods featuring Union Jack flags, they have espoused a homely agricultural ideal when it comes to beef, talking of 'Welsh lamb' and 'West Country beef', local cheeses and English wines, today they are maximising this output.
There are an increasing number of flags on packaging.
Aldi and Lidl, possibly in a move maybe to counteract impressions they are German and reliant more on imports, have been heavier still with their trumpeting, it seems.
Both have pages dedicated to British food on their websites, pledging to do more to buy from internal suppliers.
Traditionally, the paradigm of culinary culture has been firmly cast as seasonal and artisan. It is about looking to our close countryside, where fruit and vegetables grow and are packed into handsome delivery boxes, and it is about recognising the tireless endeavour of the farmers who bring us the tenderest of steaks, if not the Romanians who pick our summer strawberries, a job we only want to do on Saturday afternoons for fun.
Running alongside this now, however, is this apparent shift towards British food not just for its cultural relevance, not only as an ethical, sustainable choice, but as a distinct and robust lifestyle choice, reflecting a pro-Brexit stance.
Cont
Interesting Tornado- the big question is when it turns... about 1 hour after US opening? Good time to be watching for sure...
Other parties have gone "woke", reacted way too much to twitter etc which represents such a small part of the total vote. Labour now gaining "woke" Uni voters and high earning middle class, Tory gaining the working class. Opposition focus is poor and misguided.
He called it and was spot on last weekend. Have got ammo buying for this retreat when it settles to support next rally. (Thanks to sells Monday to Wednesday).
Hi Mr Gnome,
Unfortunately the majority of UK's mainstream tabloid media is heavily influenced by pro Tory owners who use them for tax advantages in their business empires and to promote Tory rhetoric a in order to gain commercial advantage over the public sector ( pick up outsourced services,
and government contracts etc on the cheap) .
Why else buy a newspaper that is loss making other than to use it as means to influence the thoughts of the masses by presenting news that appeals to the very worst in people in order to manipulate the outcome for your own commercial gain and use as a tax avoidance instrument.
The Tories have never been interested in a fair voting system, only one in which they are most likely to win!
May 2021
Downing Street announces plans to change English voting system following string of Labour victories
The government is pushing ahead with changes to electoral law that could make it easier for Conservatives to win future mayoral elections.
Home secretary Priti Patel has already unveiled plans to introduce the first past the post electoral system used to elect MPs in Westminster.The government is pushing ahead with changes to electoral law that could make it easier for Conservatives to win future mayoral elections.
Home secretary Priti Patel has already unveiled plans to introduce the first past the post electoral system used to elect MPs in Westminster.
Mayors across England are elected from the existing supplementary vote system, in which the public ranks their two favourite candidates.
Prof Tony Travers, of the London School of Economics, said analysis of Thursday’s polls suggested this change could open a potential route to victory for the Tories in cities such as London.
"It’s likely that first past the post would make it somewhat easier for the Conservatives to win if they could come up with a really good candidate," he said.
There is also evidence that voters are confused by the use of the supplementary voting system. Some 5% of ballots cast in this year's mayor of London election were rejected because people had voted for too many candidates.
The government will have to pass fresh legislation to change the voting system, which would also affect elections for police and crime commissioners.
Labour has pledged to oppose the changes.
Who is selling PM miners ? Because of raised yields? that won;t last long they can;t afford the repayments...so yields will have to come down regardless of what it does to PM's...you cannot have your cake and eat it...there is one outcome only !
Who is selling PM miners ? Because of raised yields? that won;t last long they can;t afford the repayments...so yeilds will have to come down regardless of what it does to PM's...you cannot have your cake and eat it...there is one outcome only !
Yep, Prof- just had to give some back but if you looks overall past year on equities in general still great gains - hopefully markets will stabilise quickly- US futures were ok earlier but then changed again- volatile times
60% equities, 40% cash.
Vast majority of my equities are commodity centric.
I have however been positioned like this for about a year so have not benefited that much from the recent broader stock market surge although have done well on some individual commodity stocks.
Best wishes,
Prof
Yes i think so too, not quite started building cash just yet but its definitely on the way
The new focus of the government budgets are on provision of full employment (watch the small print). It seems any government. Sounds appealing and hence it appeals, its popular. One can even get re-elected for such magnificent gestural use of the tax payers money. ... and it seems to be such a worthy cause that we can all relax as mountains of debt are stacked up. With the gigantic jumps in debt, comes the other horsemen, ... who uses and manages the debt, and for what purpose. It's obvious. It's to create more employment (the recovery is so good, we need to somehow pass on gigantic mountains of debt to the next generation. Buy now, pay later! )
But if one adds a time watch, the history of governments being able to do things more efficiently and effectively than private industry is debatable. The history of governments spending such large amounts so quickly to create sustainable benefit to society is abysmal.
But that's where we seem today?
But what else happened in the last 24 hours?
The next big thing....Nano is up 24.42% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #85, with a live market cap of $1,496,101,610 USD (close to CEY?) . It has a circulating supply of 133,248,297 NANO coins and a max. supply of 133,248,298 NANO coins.
What Is Nano (NANO)? Billed as "digital money for the modern world," Nano is a lightweight cryptocurrency that is designed to facilitate secure, practically instant payments, without fees, and addresses some of the major limitations of both legacy financial infrastructure, and many modern cryptocurrencies.
Go for it guys
best
the gnome
Shares on the major stock market indexes in Europe traded in the red in the premarket on Thursday, as the investors digested the Wall Steet's struggles from the day prior.
US shares ended the session with sharp losses with the sentiments seemingly backed by worse-than-expected inflation data and a record-high budget deficit.
The DAX lost 0.75% at 7:48 am CET, while the FTSE 100 slid 0.85% at the same time. In Paris, the CAC 40 was concurrently down by 0.73%. Both the euro and the pound stood flat versus the dollar, selling for 1.20765 and 1.40604 at 7:49 am CET, respectively.
Breaking the News / BU
Mines currently 70% equity 30% cash. I feel the opportunity for bargains might present itself at some point this year.