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Pleasure Rebess.
The U.S. government has declared a state of emergency to keep fuel supply lines open following the shutdown of Colonial Pipeline on Friday. The 5,500-mile conduit, whose owners include Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE:SHLX) and others, carries 2.5M barrels a day to the East Coast, or 45% of its supply of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. While Colonial is working toward a restart of operations along the key artery, some smaller lateral lines between terminals and delivery points are now operational. In the meantime, the Biden administration is allowing drivers that transport fuel to work extra hours, while oil products could be permitted to be shipped in tankers up to New York.
Recap: Hackers stole almost 100 gigabytes of data from Colonial Pipeline's networks, before locking its computers with ransomware and demanding payment. Multiple sources have confirmed that a cybercriminal gang called DarkSide was behind the attack, and some evidence has emerged linking the group to Russia or elsewhere in Eastern Europe. The White House also formed a task force to probe the pipeline breach, and the Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is coordinating with Colonial Pipeline.
Fear of shortages: U.S. gasoline futures (XB1:COM) jumped more than 3% to $2.217 a gallon as trading reopened for the week, while WTI crude futures (CL1:COM) rose 1.3% to as high as $65.76/bbl. Besides connecting refineries to more than 50M people, the pipeline network serves major U.S. airports, including Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson. While the U.S. Department of Energy could tap its reserve of 1M barrels of diesel fuel in the Northeast, it's "little more than a Band-Aid," ClearView Energy Partners said in a research note
Outlook: The attacks are "here to stay and we have to work in partnership with businesses to secure networks, to defend ourselves against these attacks," Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CBS's Face the Nation. The hack could also give renewed impetus for Biden's $2.3T infrastructure plan. In fact, the president this week is hosting top Democratic lawmakers at the White House, as well as a group of Republican senators who have proposed a separate $568B infrastructure plan, though Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has previously said Biden is willing to push through the "American Jobs Plan" without bipartisan support.
Digesting the jobs report
The new week is starting with some familiar investing trends as cyclicals look poised to notch modest gains this morning with tech on the back foot. Dow futures are ahead by 0.3%, while contracts linked to the Nasdaq are off by 0.3% and the S&P 500 is hugging the flatline. The bet, known as the the reflation trade, would see stocks more sensitive to the economic cycle outperform their peers as businesses reopen following the coronavirus pandemic.
Not everything is rosy on the economic front. Data on Friday showed that U.S. jobs rose by 266,000 in April, trailing estimates for a one million jump, marking a huge miss by economists and raising questions over what data they're using. Despite the blunder, the news could be good for equities, as it may suggest the Fed may hold its accommodative stance for longer. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen weighed in by saying the report "underscores the long-haul climb back to recovery, but still represents continued progress."
Analyst commentary: "We would not read too much into any one jobs report, and continue to think the labor market remains on track and will be more than enough to underpin consumer confidence and consumption," Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana declared. He thinks cyclical stocks will continue to be favored over defensive shares, and jobs growth still likely to accelerate in the months ahead.
Prices on the rise: Commodities are getting another dose of supercycle today, with gasoline and crude oil rising after a cyberattack forced the closure of the East Coast Colonial Pipeline. Iron ore futures and copper also jumped to fresh records, before a CPI report this week that is forecast to show U.S. prices rising further in April. Meanwhile, a slew of Fed speakers will discuss the recent price trends this week, as well as how inflation could affect monetary policy and economic growth.
Excellent... come on cey catch up
Thanks for the report. - Encouraging.
$1842.06
No doubt it will go even higher and Centamin will shadow too.
Highlights from Brokers note -
May 10, 2021
Centamin plc
Upgrading to Outperform
Our view: With operational expectations reset, some potential positive
catalysts from Egyptian concessions and the West Africa portfolio review,
and with Centamin trading sub 0.84x NAV at spot gold we think risk reward
is now skewed to the upside, in particular if gold can hold its recent gains.
Upgrade to Outperform.
Key points:
Still hard work but risk reward now skewed to the upside
Centamin's challenging 2020 and guidance reset was the culmination
of many years of the operation being run for the short-term. New
management now looks well on track to proving out a brighter long-term
future for Sukari. Q1's better than expected production, albeit only one
quarter of many which would be needed to prove out the strategy, was a
positive sign. Although there are likely to be further bumps on the road,
the potential of Sukari remains intact and we think we are now past the
worst of the news flow.
This year could be augmented by two potential catalysts. First, the group
has won a recent Egyptian bid round. Details remain scarce, however, with
grades constrained in the open pit and the underground yet to show its
true potential, a material near-mine satellite discovery could reshape the
production profile and add potential for expansions. We expect to hear
more details in the coming weeks. Secondly, Centamin's adventures in West
Africa have taken away focus from the key Sukari mine. We think a review
could monetise the current exploration portfolio, and this, added to the
$331m of cash and equivalents on the balance sheet, could potentially
drive future buybacks or more optimal usage of the balance sheet, further
enhancing value.
Everything else is going up, and so is gold, so why not gold stocks?
In recent weeks, signs of inflation pushing through the wider economy,
especially from a diverse suite of commodities, appears to be picking
up momentum. With consumer balance sheets and corporate profits
providing plenty of room to pass on price and wage increases, and limited
signs of excess liquidity being removed, we think that gold's optionality
here remains elevated. Centamin is trading on 0.84x spot P/NAV and 4.4x
consensus EV/EBITDA (c. 10% below 5 year average but in theory should
trade at a higher multiples through this compressed profitability phase).
We see potential that gold's recent revival could push multiples higher
again, as we saw in 2020. We move our target multiple to 1.3x our RBC
base case NAV and 6.0x EV/EBITDA (from 1.1 and 5.0x prev). This moves
our price target to 140p from 120p and we move our recommendation to
Outperform from Sector Perform.
Productivity should increase over the next year as will the POG due to the central banks reckless money printing and also helped by the influences of Basel 3 .
We can also look forward to some updates on West Africa and possibly the more detailed announcement on the awarded Egyptian concession's.(I hear EMRA wants to make a big thing of this announcement)
Also over the next year some considerable reduction on the AISC , due to easier main pit access and solar coming on stream .
Yes indeed Somnamna, that is why I love the talk about Centamin and what affects it on this board, far more useful and informed than most analysts. And why different views so welcome here as analysts move in a herd
For 100% increase from this level if gold hits 2000 and productivity returns to near normal. A great investment.
The fastest part of the Australia economy was....THE SWAMP....OTHER WISE CALLED THE AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL....deeply worried when the swamp grows faster than the productive parts of the economy! Great days ahead for gold
So yet another so called Analist has posted an unsupported number.
Obviously based on today's gold price plugged into his Excel Spreadsheet to calculate so called SP forecast.
The evaluation being based on income and no mention of fundemental values.
These guys really are unprofessional spivs. Should post a rational and justification of their calculation.
People working in business have to justify their facts and figures why not analists.
Quite so Mr Bond & Drunkinit,
Having shares held RBS & Lloyd's because I thought banks could be trusted, after 2008 all I can say is never again, buyer beware!
Interesting to look back on this report and then consider what's happening at the present!
A James Bond-style lair was duly created, featuring a vast triangular table bolted to the floor with a large carpeted space in the middle.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/fred-goodwin-obsessed-about-carpets-while-rbs-burned-1538923
Goodwin then decided, once the carpet had been laid in 2005, that he would rather the board members had a giant RBS logo on the floor in the middle of the triangle to look at while they deliberated on the bank’s extraordinary growth.
Pre 2008 crash
https://www.investors.rbs.com/~/media/Files/R/RBS-IR-V2/Archived/13-june-06-trading-statement-transcript.pdf
Sir Fred Goodwin: Ok, well thanks everyone for calling in. I think we covered a pretty good range of
topics there. If any of you have got any other queries as the day unfolds or as the rest of the
week unfolds, feel free to contact us and we’ll try and answer them. It is, I know, it’s a slightly
inherently unsatisfactory process to be putting out a small series of words and trying to
extrapolate from that, as to what the Group’s performance is but the messages are very clear,
strong, we're performing well during the early parts of 2006, all the metrics are fine and we expect
to meet expectations, so there’s no hidden messages, surprises or secrets in here. So thanks
to everyone for calling in.
PAGE 22 !!
Edward Firth: Hi. Just a quick question back on weighted risk assets; just two points; firstly could you
just confirm the net weighted risk asset benefit, if you like, from the securitisation programmes in
the first half. And I guess, second question, under Basel II what would be the treatment of these,
I guess these loan books under Basel II, will they remain off balance sheet or will they come back
on?
Sir Fred Goodwin: I’ll answer the second part and if Guy knows that, I don’t have a figure in my mind
for the first part, I don’t know if he does. Clearly what’s going on at the moment is being in done
in full anticipation of Basel II, Ed, so there’s no point in having something go off the balance sheet
only to bring it back on again.
Edward Firth: Sure.
Guy Whittaker: The first part of your question, Ed: we have securitised £4.7 billion worth of mortgages,
which are at 50% risk weighted asset and then £3.5 billion of corporate lending book through a
synthetic securitisation CLO.
As Peter Schiff says... when the Bitcoin market collapses, its worth $1.1 trillion plus, those panic sellers will plough into gold & silver and I would reckon the gold market is quite inelastic.. I think I got that right!
gold will soar!
RBC RAISES CENTAMIN TO 'OUTPERFORM' ('SECTOR PERFORM') - TARGET 140 (120) PENCE
Trust in the legal system.... the swamp appoints these people!
When Trump said he was going to drain the swamp he had no idea how very wide & deep the swamp is!
Trust and credibility.
Yes that finally went out of the window, for me, after the lack of action by the legal system.
After the 2008 fiasco.
An open invitation for them to continue with lies and deception to Joe public.
Perhaps it may soon change, likely not.
Have a good week all.
Despite circulating rumours the current real time quote on gold is $1838.56
Session high a few minutes ago $1839.16
Equities in Europe traded mostly higher in the premarket on Monday ahead of the latest updates on house prices in the United Kingdom and investor confidence in the Eurozone. Earlier, during the weekend, the European Commission approved a deal with Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE to secure additional 900 million doses of their vaccine against COVID-19.
The DAX traded 0.22% higher at 7:40 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 rose by 0.35%. Meanwhile, the CAC 40 stood still.
The euro lost 0.06% against the dollar to sell for $1.21564 at 7:41 am CET. The pound sterling gained 0.42% against the greenback at the same minute to change hands for $1.40483.
Breaking the News / JR
Gold on the up, currently circa $1738
The other thing that is missing (has been for along time) is trust and credibility by the central bankers and governments.
When this disappears then the price of transactions goes up, slows down (more checks and balances), productivity goes down, and social unease goes up. As I have mentioned these are great times for some social upheavals, and they have to be on the way.
[I guess Boris is in the bunker at 10 Downer St, drawing up invasion plans for Scotland],
.... beware the Picts Boris, [just some friendly advice from the Colonies]
best
the gnome
Yes, the inflation figures are misleading at best. We have very low inflation in Australia from the government's opinion, its just that at the moment houses and apartments are selling so quickly (prices going up by 10+% in last 3 months) that a few real estate agents have done away with home opens. Just straight post to the web site, phone starts ringing within 4 hours, offers flow in, price goes up (again). Rental vacancies in Perth below 1%, and Mandurah below again.
So inflation, well what can one say. Fine if you don't factor in the cost of putting a roof over ones heads, and finding a rental property in the mean time?!
An utter joke...
the gnome
Gold, silver may bounce back in FY21. Here's a playbook for precious metals in a volatile market.
"This year, gold has given a negative return of about 6 per cent due to expectations of global recovery and strength in dollar and US bond yields," said Anuj Gupta, Vice President - Commodity and Currencies, IIFL Securities. "However, purchases by the central bank and demand for gold ETFs, digital gold and Sovereign Gold Bonds are increasing substantially."
Market watchers said vaccination drive and a strong rebound of global economies along with ultra low rates has diminished the appeal of safer bets.
Profit booking in the equity market is a positive sign for precious metals. "Investment demand and portfolio diversification may increase demand for gold. Investors are betting on gold due to the uncertainty and risk of inflation," Gupta said.
Precious metals are usually treated as a diversification tool in one's portfolio. Analysts suggest investors should accumulate gold and silver in a staggered manner. Precious metals are witnessing inflows from institutional buyers and central banks, claim analysts.
"Prices have almost bottomed out and the fundamentals look strong in the near term," said Katke of Axis Securities.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/gold-silver-may-bounce-back-in-fy21-heres-a-playbook-for-precious-metals-in-a-volatile-market/articleshow/82494284.cms
Thanks Mr Bond ,
Great interview with Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert (lumber prices add $36000 to the price of a new house in the US in 2021!)
The number of jobs created in America declined by 74,000 to 153,439 in August. A horrible number, far below expectations. The jobless rate rose to 4.4 and hourly earnings missed increasing only 2.5 percent year-over-year. Average hours worked also declined, seeing as weekly wages followed suit. Yet, central bank manipulated stocks are surging, on the terrible economic news, in anticipation of more global central bank easing. News and economic data are irrelevant in our “rigged” system as market participants eagerly line up like heroin addicts awaiting another federal reserve fix!
http://planetponzi.com/blog/bureau-of-labor-statistics-understanding-the-swamp%E2%80%99s-unemployment-numbers
Could be update on the exiting Africa news then
Tuesday, 11th May
Astrazeneca
Capital & Counties
Centamin PLC
Caledonia Min
Cairn Energy
Capita
Fidelity European Values
Gli Finance
Gym Grp
HgCapital Trust plc
IWG
Just Group
Macfarlane Grp.
M Winkworth