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SP Comfortably now above £1
Tibbs yes thanks as I have said I recently re read the 2023 Technical Report so there is nothing new in your cut and paste. The good thing about Cote D'Ivoire other than they speak French is that there is as I have said many times considerable experience in mining. Far more than was/is in Egypt especially if you take in additional people who will inevitably be looking for work from Mali and Burkina. It is common place in West Africa because of ECOWAS to have experienced migrant workers filling important roles. I am not talking people sitting behind desks because they will mainly be from cooler climates the important people are the guys on the ground this is where things actually get done.
From what I can see other than the resource being split over a number of areas it is a straight forward open pit operation that can be done by a local contractor or from what I am hearing maybe owner mining. If the later then they must be confident of how straight forward the resource is to manage.
I know what you are saying about the market in general but this is a Centamin discussion board and we were making reference to what is going on at Centamin.
As for putting share certificates in a drawer and forgetting about them you certainly don't do that if you are investing in mining.
Hi 3bear,
To be honest I don't see either as being low risk, but I think Egypt has less risk of insurgency, although the economy is in a mess and the political suppression isn't good!
I'm still not convinced about Doropo pay back time, too many unknown factors!
Tibbs - it may be that Cote D'Ivoire is politically and financially more stable than Egypt at the minute, does that affect your view?
Cont-
The June 2021 PEA outlines that the Doropo project is a series of individual resource deposits rather than one singular deposit like Sukari,
, with deposit grades ranging from ~1.0g/t to 1.7g/t, depending on the way the pit optimisation were run it will have generated open pit shells from those deposits (albeit using updated drilling data from the PFS). The grade dispersion will vary with the geology and the drilling information/density. As such, portions of those pits will be at lower grades and in the Inferred Resource category.
Tibbs
Hi Dasut,
My remarks on lies and innuendo weren't specifically at Centamin but on the way the whole stock market industry operates.
Doropo
I,m not at all convinced that this area is politically stable or will remain free from some sort of incursion from rebel groups .
As to the reports I remain suspicious that the projects will turn out to be more expensive than is being estimated and although a three year payback is envisioned and would be ideal the reality of that remains to be seen.
You may find this information from Centamin of interest-
In response to your first email around the purpose of the update.
• Earlier in the year we had committed to updating the market on the Doropo pre-feasibility study ("PFS"), the announcement was following through on that with an update of the various work streams and their various stages of completion.
• The update also enabled us to communicate the following:
o Firstly, that we had identified an opportunity to make significant capital and operating cost savings within the processing circuit.
o Secondly that in pursuing this opportunity publication of the PFS was being deferred until we had completed the necessary test work to evaluate the cost saving opportunity, to ensure we published the most comprehensive PFS based on available data.
• Finally, the update was also necessary to communicate the updated Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”), which demonstrated a significant improvement in grade from the preliminary economic assessment ("PEA")
As mentioned in the recent full year results, we look forward to publishing the results of the completed PFS in June this year.
In response to the second
The grades in the MRE update are correct. The data was prepared by and under the supervision of the Group Qualified Persons, Howard Bills, Group Exploration Manager, Craig Barker, Group Mineral Resource Manager, and Mike Millad, the independent Qualified Person from Cube Consulting Pty Ltd. All are geoscientists who fulfil the requirements of being a "Qualified Person(s)" under the CIM Definition Standards.
In the June 2021, we published the PEA MRE and in November 2022 we published an update. Historically the Inferred Resource grade was at 1.13g/t, and this was updated to 1.14g/t. Previously the Mineral Resources were unconstrained (at any gold price, which is not unusual for an early stage study). When we published the November 2023 update, the Mineral Resources were constrained within US$2,000/oz open pit shells to outline the scale of the Mineral Resource that has the potential to become economically viable to extract at our reserve evaluation gold price of US1450/oz. This is a more rigorous approach involving the application of the Reasonable Prospects for Eventual Economic Extraction ("RPEEE") criterion reflected in most current reporting codes. The June 2021 PEA outlines that the Doropo project is a series of individual resource deposits rather than one singular deposit like Sukari
Hi Razor's,
The Blackrock increase is on a CFD basis, so on leverage , no long term commitment to Centamin , Blackrock have no morals or integrity, they would trade in anthrax or nuclear waste if they thought they could make a quick profit!
Tibbs I am not a trader and yes looking back at history certainly has it's merits if done in the relatively short term.
As such Centamin provides very useful data on their Interactive Analyst spreadsheets, which allows us to see what impact certain positive and negative issues have had on production.
This helps me as an investor to look at the underlying numbers and trends.
Contrary to lies and innuendos I find Centamin in the last few years to be transparent to investors.
Also I have again read through the 2023 Technical Report for Doropo and see this prospect as a positive especially an estimated 2.3 year pay back.
So other than your worries relating to security what are your areas of concern?
Marginal increases Cey holding
Marginal increases Cey holding
Equities in Europe traded lower in the premarket on Tuesday after the newest reports on the Eurozone's economy showed a lower trade surplus in January than in December and no change in its annual inflation rate compared to the preliminary document.
The DAX declined by 0.15% at 7:54 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 dropped by 0.32%. The CAC 40 decreased by 0.15%. The Eurostoxx 50 went down by 0.28%.
The euro fell by 0.06% against the dollar at 7:55 am CET to sell for $1.08665. A minute later, the pound sterling dipped by 0.15% against the United States currency to go for $1.27091.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
Gold currently $2156.18
Somnamma,
I appreciate that traders point of view is very different to that of an investor, traders and indeed computor driven logarithms care not a jot about whether those making claims on behalf of the company are being truthful, or if they have any integrity because their prime objective is to maximise their quick profit or return out of fluctuations or spikes in the share price of a particular company that is a result of more often than not claims of future guidance without any sound evidence to substantiate them and once the farce is realised the same traders likely then take short positions in order to makefile from the company share price going into free-fall.
To state that looking back is just history and no longer relevant is preferable for a trader because they have no interest on the long prospects of the company, just a quick profit from a spike in share price which likely turns out to be unjustified and based on some unsubstantiated claim from a company director whose priority is to gloss over the flaws in the company strategy draw their bonuses and fill their boots with swag then likely once the truth evident move on to another company where they will repeat scam and screw the next lot of what they regard as gullible investors!
This what is wrong with the whole market system, it exists on the basis of lies and innuendo, rather then integrity and sustainable sound and reliable long term performance.
As the market system to a large extent is based around charts and data of historical performance so then surely any investor should base their decisions to a large extent understanding the historical fundamentals and sustainable performance potential of a company, rather then short term data based on unsubstantiated claims that are more akin to wishful thinking.
An investor should be able to buy shares in a company put the certificates in drawer and forget about them for the long term reasonably confident that they will appreciate, unlike traders whose only interest is a quick profit over the shortest possible period.
Ok Steve you have said it (expressed your opinion) so why bang on about it ?
I really appreciate and value your posts on trading and data, in fact look forward to them.
But how about having respect for other posters views and opinions, and if you don't have anything of factual or logical value to add just ignore the post and move on. Or debate the post from a factual / logical aspect.
No need to trash the topic without explanation or justification or belittle the poster for the topic of thier post.
The problem is on your approach Mr T- to make money you have to predict.
Everything you wrote is obvious and doesn’t help predict anything or timeline.
Sorry to be blunt, but I say it as see it.
If anyone is wondering what the future share price may be then they need to appropriate the reasons why it is where it is today are factors such the cost of the very generous ongoing profit share agreement and that the contribution from the underground is crucial to supplement the unreliable and mediocre open pit grades.
Any hope of some decent rise rise in share price from increased guidance and lower AISC is directly related to the efficiency of the underground operation.
As yet their is little to substantiate the hopes/claims for the Doropo site which might turn out to be reasonable of it could be an expensive failure, as yet on what is known will have little positive effect on the future share price.
It is a great mistake o assume that there is going to be any substantial increase in share price until some proof of ongoing lower AISC and reliable and improved guidance is delivered,
Steve I have to agree history can't be changed and pretty much all of the culprits have gone and the new team are coming to an end of their announced 4 year reorganisation to get the mine back on track.
Yes it has been a painful 4 years but unfortunately there are many necessary evils that had to be suffered.
Tibbs the underground has always been crucial and that was known from day one and is why the mine design and plans are as they are. They actually got to the development stages of the underground earlier than I envisaged because early discussions were around sinking access into the lower reaches far later in proceedings.
Yes open pit will always be lower grades that is the geology but without the open pit the funds and considerable funds have been obtained from the open pit, the underground wouldn't have been possible without borrowing, and standing alone the ounces wouldn't have made the mine viable.
I think everyone agrees that Pardey was over promoted and wrong decisions came home to roost. Yes Horgan has spent a fortune but I have to begrudgingly admit some credit has to be given to the old guard because funds were available for the new team to spend.
The proof of whether Horgan and his team's decisions are the correct decisions will soon be known as I have said we are coming to the end of the 4 year cycle. No doubt the ship is steadier and we have seen some consistency and flexibility but proof of turning the ship around is hopefully to be seen by the year end, but starting with first quarter numbers.
Mr T,
Please focus on views on what the SP will be in the future and cease endless historical information that is all available should anyone want to find it.
The past is the past.
The key is the short, med and long term SP, and drivers that impact this.
The 2012 Centamin annual report the management were well aware of the significance of the underground workings and the need to develop them so that the higher underground grades could be used to compensate for the inerrant low grade problems of the open pit
See Centamin at a glance , overview – What Sets Us Apart para 1.
"In particular, the underground mine and regional
prospects offer significant potential to define further
resources."
See also 4. * An experienced team
* (Bunch of shyster's!)
Centamin’s management team and Board of Directors have considerable expertise in the gold mining industry. **
**(So they were fully aware then of the dangers of long term high grading?)
This ranges from the early stage identification of deposits,project financing, construction and development, to the operating of large mines.
Some of the leadership team has been based at Sukari for almost a decade, taking it from an early stage exploration project to the operating gold mine it is today. ***
***(Including an Elraghy brother who used to be a Cairo copper with a police academy certificate in post as Sukari general manager?)
Yet despite this claimed expertise within this BOD and management instead of acting responsibly by developing the underground operation they disregarded sound mining practice and went for a what they knew was a very high risk strategy of high grading the open pit for over half decade glossing over the truth for short term gain withoutv thought for long term consequences !
On the link below go to the top line then select Archive , then go to page numbers at the bottom scroll back to page 06 2012 annual repott
https://www.centamin.com/investors/results-reports/?year=archive
I appreciate that some may find it boring to read through these retrospective reports , but that said much of the detail makes it obvious all the things that Martin Horgan recognised needed doing on his arrival needed doing half a decade before, had they been then things would be very different now!
Strange isn't it how Trump claims that everything American is so superior, yet he choose to ignore that not the USA internal airline system near falling to bits but that Boeing aircraft have also been discarding parts of their fuselage in flight over many years!
As part of my research re the timing of Josef's share disposals I asked Kees Dekker for hie thoughts and to be frank I feel that his opinion is likely one of the most valid and concerns the long term effects upping of the profit share to 50% and the parasitical effect of this which an awful lot of people myself included never seemed to fully appreciate !
07/2018
Hello T,
I suspect that it will be very difficult to prove insider trading by Mr El Raghy. As you point out management until recently did not appear to see problems coming. So how did Mr El Raghy see that?
I think proving otherwise will be nigh impossible!
What he must have seen coming is sharing the net free cash flow 50/5o, but this any shareholder should have seen coming as it was never a secret.
kind regards,
Kees
Hi Somnamma,
I did write to the company on several occasions re the timing of Josef's share sales, even tried via the company secretary to gets questions raised at the AGM, but this didn't happen?
I have a file of the various explanations from the company, in many respects they all seemed plausible although that said any opinion on the rationale behind theses sales does depend whether you are a retail investor or a member of the BOD !
If you recall Marmot, he offered some thoughts about 5 million share disposal LSE 07/2018
There is nothing significant in a regulatory sense about his shareholding at 4.67% today vs. 6% before the sales.
But leaving aside speculation about personal financial decisions there are several points about his stake which may be significant.
Firstly, although CEY has 1.15bn shares in issue almost half, 575m shares are held by 8 Co's and one individual. The May presentation on the CEY website reports that there were 9 large shareholders with holdings of 2.7% or more, owning 50.8% of the shares in issue. Even after his recent sale Josef El Raghy still ranks 3rd largest shareholder with 4.67% behind fund managers Blackrock 12.9% and Van Eck with 11.9%.
After the court case is resolved I think it reasonable to expect that some of these institutional shareholders will increase their stakes and others will take new holdings.
As the price rises and more holders become strong hands it will get more difficult to build stake of 2%-4% without bidding up the price. I expect Josef's stake to drop down from 3rd largest in the future as other institutions take 5% or larger stakes.
Perhaps these share sales were requested by some institutional buyers keen to get a slice before the court case was resolved.
Over the last few weeks Josef's 17.6m share sales have released 1.53% of the issued share capital back into the free float market.
I think one point worth noting is that all the sales came from Nordana Pty fund which Josef controls.
He has kept all of his and family trust shares.
So it is conceivable that Nordana was set up as a vehicle designed specifically to fund another opportunity? Perhaps if one comes up in Egypt?
Marmot
Well it's busted through that this morning to 108.
Start of last week I noticed the SP weaker in the mornings then picking up as US markets opened. Be interesting to see what happens today
Same with Edoardo Hochschild selling them at 200 and then fell three fold, should keep a lynx eye on directors, and when they buy
Mr T perhaps worth an add to your history post would be the massive share sell off (approx 52,000,000 shares) by Josef El-Raghy in 2016 / 2017. In hindsight a very big red flag.
13-Jun-17 Sell 173.00 5,000,000
12-Jun-17 Sell 177.00 5,350,000
27-Feb-17 Sell 173.40 5,000,000
23-Feb-17 Sell 179.00 4,040,000
21-Feb-17 Sell 175.70 5,000,000
20-Feb-17 Sell 178.20 5,000,000
09-Feb-17 Sell 173.00 5,000,000
10-Jun-16 Sell 111.00 5,000,000
31-May-16 Sell 98.00 12,595,714
Gold currently $2148.92