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Not sure what you meant by Gold/Silver trading at a much higher level Rebess.
Gold was trading at around $1900 this time last year, and at $2000 in Jul 2020.
Sold today for 8% profit, don't fancy holding into the update. Hopefully the share price has a big uplift for any holders tomorrow but I think we'll be able to buy in the mid 80's again at some point. Just my 2 cents.
I think a lot of people compare to same quarter in 2019 as Covid was such a disruptor, though of course I hope you are right and we see a sizeable rise at 8am
No doubt we'll find out Ken. - The other expert that was informing us on Basel 111 was Alasdair McCleod. - He covered the subject for many months and none of what he forecast has come to pass. - He also has not mentioned any change to the Jan. 22 date. - One thing that is noticeable, to me at any rate, since the start of the year, although it appears that manipulation is still taking place, it is doing so with the price of Gold/Silver trading at a much higher level and also maintaining that position.
"Andrew Maguire in his latest LFTV speaks as though it is in play and just requires time to take effect."
Rebess, it is the length of time this will take to properly kick in that concerns me.
As for Andrew Maguire, personally, I cannot watch the guy, he speaks too fast, uses too many tech terms, waves his arms too much, and has an irritating voice. It all seems a bit hysterical to me, but each to their own.
cont.
If you are right about the 29th October date, you would have thought that Andrew M would have picked-up on that and informed us all. - He didn't.
Thanks Ken
I see the point you're making. - Well now, I wonder if there's a way of finding out for sure. - Andrew Maguire in his latest LFTV speaks as though it is in play and just requires time to take effect. - Andrew is pretty clued-up on such matters
Hi Rebess,
The chart showing when compliances were to be effective was marked as (as of October 2021). The article announcing the one year extension was written on the 29th Oct 2021. It is quite conceivable that the chart had not been updated with this one year postponement. The article also states: "Following a one-year deferral to increase the operational capacity of banks and supervisors to respond to COVID-19, these reforms will take effect from 1 January 2023 and will be phased in over five years."
Either way the FT article shows that the banks and regulatory bodies are not anywhere near ready, and I think everyone is taking the "phased in over five years" literally. The Bank of England and the PRA are not even planning to discus this until the second half of 2022.
I believe that this is why the gold price has not risen as folks expected it to leading up to Jan 1st 2022. As far as I can see little or nothing has changed, and I am not very confident 2023 will be much better. IMO the LBMA will do all in their power to obstruct and frustrate this legislation and I expect little of the PRA and the Bank of England.
Meanwhile the media and even gold experts ignore the subject and the effects of the one year extension. Perhaps they find the information from the FSB and the BIS as incomprehensible as the rest of us.
Actually , the Q4 results if spun correctly will make excellent reading. .
They will show an approx 50% increase in production on Q4 from last year. It will also show a favourable comparison between the second half of last year and the second half of this year
It will however still show a year on year fall with 2020
Let's see what comparison they choose to highlight
If they highlight the Q4 year on year comparison then I would expect a sizeable uplift in share price ..but who knows what the market will make of it
CEY haven't met guidance for ages so if it's in line or better then the market should reward them for showing stability and consistency
There haven’t been any good results for a long while, profits steadily falling until/if they turn which needs in order of importance higher gold price (down around 10% on the year in real terms), reduce costs (that have soared) and more ounces (that have fallen.
Not sure what tomorrow will bring, good results seem to be followed by a share price drop.
So let’s hope the share price drops tomorrow
Incidentally 4th quarter results tomorrow but not expecting then to do very much either way, we are at the mercy of the gold price waves and as said earlier no-one, least of all banks and analysts, has the least idea which way it will go, though Id like to find that monkey with a dart.
Hi Ken
As I understand it, Basel 111 is not a singular issue but rather is made up of a multitude of new rules, terms and conditions.
They are being phased-in over a period of time.- The NSFR requirement affecting the calculation of assets held on account has been a part of this phasing-in. The first tranche of adopting countries became compliant from July 1st 2021. - UK was supposed to be a part of this adoption but was granted a six-month extension to become compliant from Jan. 1st 2022. - To the best of my knowledge and confirmed by your link, this is the current state-of-play. - That's all I know. - The confusion arises I think, out of the affect it's had on the POG and the continued manipulation, when we were all led to believe, by the experts, that this would cease. - They were forecasting that the effects of the NSFR would begin to show as early as Nov. 21 and by the end of December, all parties would have to have their positions squared ready for Jan. 1st 22. - Well, so much for experts, this hasn't happened. So, it's hardly surprising that we are all confused. - It would be useful if there was a source where we could ask for a definitive answer. - I wouldn't know where to start.
Hi Rebess,
I looked at the FSB table you suggested, and as you say the UK does seem to be NSFR compliant from Jan 2022. I also listened to what Andrew Maguire said about this. However, he said nothing about Basel 3 being extended till 2023. However, other articles I have read suggest that progress is snail like to say the least.
Financial Times 1 Nov 2021
Latest version of banking standards will come into force 'post March 2023'
The UK has eased its timetable for implementing the latest global bank capital standards, but stopped short of the two-year delay recently announced by the EU, raising the prospect that British banks will be forced to comply sooner than their closest rivals.
The UK's financial regulators said on Monday they would look to implement the latest Basel III banking standards "post March 2023", without specifying a date. The rules, which mostly streamline how banks calculate their capital, were due to come into force globally in January 2023.
A planned consultation led by the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority on the implementation was also postponed from the final quarter of 2021 until the second half of next year.
Regulatory experts said the financial impact of the final parts of Basel III on British banks was unclear since the UK had provided no detail on its approach to areas where national rulemakers have discretion, such as the amount of capital that banks have to set aside for potential defaults among corporate clients who do not have a rating from a credit-rating agency.
a Thanks Gnome, the forecasts for the gold price are probably no better than a Monkey throwing a dart, as with shares they consistently beat the average prediction which tends to go with what happened before, but this is in the market and the unexpected moves price. This year almost all pundits call for falling gold which may be hopeful.
b. Gold price has not just fallen in nominal terms over the last year, but worse in real terms has fallen an extra $100 dollars from inflation. It needs to be rising around $10 a month just to stay level in real terms and it isn’t. It is surprising our share price isn’t falling even further.
C. As Mr Bond I can’t see much of a takeover premium in the share price as Centamin could only sell half Sukari ownership so a buyer would be dependent on Emra support. Oils Emra
Want Barrick too powerful?
European shares were lower in premarket trade on Tuesday as traders prepared for United Kingdom unemployment data and economic sentiment report for Germany and the Eurozone. Yesterday, Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe warned that inflation will remain at a high level for longer than initially expected.
The DAX decreased by 0.22%, London's FTSE 100 was down 0.19%, while the CAC 40 contracted by 0.25% at 7:19 am CET.
The euro was 0.06% lower compared to the dollar at 7:36 am CET, trading for 1.13996. The British pound was flat against the greenback, changing hands for 1.36393 a minute later.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / MS
I am always interested in how country risk is calculated into investment calculations. Barrick maybe wishing to diversify out of the USA? Diversify into a country (via a company) where Mining has a social icense to operate, as it gives actively back into the government and local communities.
Resolution Copper (Tier 1 copper mine in the USA, and givend evelopments in Chile and elsewhere might be of strategic interest to the US Govt and Industry)– has been caught up in a heightened level of global activism against mining that has stalled not only this project but so many others, and is now threatening to undermine the fight against climate change, and with it the economic and military security of Western democracies.
Major projects have been blocked across the US. But it goes beyond America: from Chile to Serbia, fresh threats to critical minerals projects are popping up, dragging approval processes out to the point at which the average new mine now takes 16 years to start production, according to the International Energy Agency.
US President Joe Biden, who has repeatedly raised concerns about the need for critical minerals independence from China, which controls 73 per cent of the market, has also taken the activists’ side. Last year his government rescinded the approved environmental impact statement for the Resolution mine and ordered a review of an already approved deal by Congress allowing Rio Tinto ownership of the land.
I have posted previously about the contry risk in Australia, which is incresing every year. Just ask Djokovic.
ASIDE, Email from a Serbian friend
The life expectancy of Australians has increased since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, new research from the Australian National University (ANU) has revealed.
The average age of death is now 83 years old
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-18/australians-living-longer-due-to-pandemic-life-anu-study-finds/100761624
But the average age of people who died with covid was 86.9 years old (85.2 years for males, 88.4 years for females)
https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-1
Should Victorians be locked up for 262 days every 2 years as part of a new strategy to extend life expectancy in the state? (State Premier has plans)
Is covid actually good for Australian Public, as its effects extend life, and hence should Djokovic be allowed back to play for the public good?
Should Australian states shut their borders at random more often?
There must be some robust science behind the government's thinking?
Cest la vie as they in Serbia
the Gnome
Excuse Typos and spellin,lost my online keyboard and cant bloody find the one I am used too.
The history and decisions of EMRA.
Many years ag when Mark Cambbel was working for Centamin accompaneing Sami the boss.
They both liked the prospects of Abu Marawat.
Then Cenamin were awarded the SUKARI concession,but Sami the Boss and excellent geoligist had a choice,one the other ,not both.
Sukari was chosen the other given up.
The reason .
Emra wanted more companies in Egypt.
Later they found many offered conceccions were sat on ,not made operational.
Not good .
their relationship with Sukari Centamin has been succesful.
IMO they will not allow Sukari nor Centamin in Egypt to be taken over or aquired by a Giant.
Who has already been offered concessions ie Priviliged/
It would not be good Press and not encourage other exploration and much cost to be controlled by outsiders. ie Giants.
Its Politics .
But only IMHO.
Think about it.
They would not allow Shalateen to be stolen by Suwaris ,and now they are much larger and neighbours. Having been given concessions in a prime region.Shalateen being Miltary owned.
EMRA , Military ,Government.
Hi 3bear,
You're ignoring the fact that the share price has already been hammered - and for the reasons I outlined previously. Would it be lower otherwise? I challenge anyone to lay out a scenario which is worse short of shutting down production altogether. But of course that would hardly make for an attractive takeover target. Balance is needed. A stellar ore body that has seen neglect and mismanagement. That is the tell-tale image Barrick needs to swoop in and be the hero, value 'creator' , etc. IMO
Thanks for the jolts, the inflation rate for each month is normalised to an annual rate, so no you cannot add them quite like that! But 7 is far greater than 2, even in economic speak.
April 2019
Worldbank issued its updated outlook on the commodities markets. The outlook includes gold price forecasts. For 2019 a price of 1,310 US dollars per ounce is expected. The gold price is forecast to rise further to 1,360 US dollars in 2020.
April 21, 2020
Analysts of Bank of America have published a report titled ‘The Fed Can’t Print Gold’ and set a gold price of US$ 3,000 in 18 months
November 17th, 2020
The global investment bank Goldman has reiterated its previous 12 month target of US$ 2,300 for the gold price.
February 4th, 2021
The London Bullion Market Association published its annual precious metals forecast survey. On average, the 38 surveyed analysts forecast a price of US$ 1,973.8 per troy ounce in 2021.
April 2021
The Worldbank forecasts prices to average 4% lower in 2021, and decline further in 2022. According to the Worldbank, nominal gold prices in U.S.-dollars should decline by 2025, before they tend higher again through 2030 and 2035.
July 6th, 2021
According to the investment bank Goldman Sachs, the gold price has significant upside potential of reaching up to US$ 2,500,
and so on
best
Predictions #1,723 In summary, we expect much better performance from gold in 2022, with the potential for a 60% advance from current levels. Gold miners could outperform to the upside and may double from current levels.
After rising to $3000 in 2022, we expect another consolidation, followed by new highs in 2023 and then a more profound decline in 2024...
The value of paper decreased by 7% last month...and then looking at the monthlies
Date Value
December 31, 2021 7.04%
November 30, 2021 6.81%
October 31, 2021 6.22%
September 30, 2021 5.39%
August 31, 2021 5.25%
July 31, 2021 5.37%
June 30, 2021 5.39%
May 31, 2021 4.99%
April 30, 2021 4.16%
March 31, 2021 2.62%
February 28, 2021 1.68%
January 31, 2021 1.40%
December 31, 2020 1.36%
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate
If you add all the monthlies for the last 12 months, one gets about 58%, and TARGET WAS 2% ANNUAL. This means the purchasing value of your dollar you saved and put in the bank 12 monthsis a lot lot lower ...
I guess the new target will be 2% inflation per month?
Of, .... the prediction anything to do with Basel? or just a passing notion, or motion as it might have been
best
the gnome
Hi Kenj
Open the link that you posted - scroll down to the bottom and you will see a blue link ' FSB Annual report to G20 (October 2021)' - download - Scroll to page 34 'Annex' - It looks complicated but it isn't. - Basel 111 - 6th column to right relates to NSFR. - Alphabetically descending showing countries and their status re NSFR. e.g. 'C' = compliant. - UK shows an ampersand (&) on yellow background. - Below, page 35, 'Legend' - Explains what the various symbols mean. - Ampersand (&) = compliant from Jan 1st 2022. - Check it out and good luck. - It's like doing a crossword. :-)