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Again Sotolo an unfair example as the AISC increasing is being spent on increasing reserves and resources and replacing diesel with solar energy and so forth. Its a bit like you earned less but were better trained with new skills and you took more time out to improve own mental and physical health and the boss is able to up pay next year.
I was afraid to ask did it matter that it was unsold.
You may well be right Tornado, and s’more your rose tinted specs that appreciate every pound less profit mend 52.5 p less to Emra, bit like I am thrilled when my salary halves as more than a third less to taxman! (not)
Sotolo
The price collapsed when all the past events arose. The fact is that the company earns more revenue in 2022 on same gold price metrics and half the AISC increases are profits that do not go to EMRA. When adjusted the share price should be 113p with a likely 2p increase on the price today. The 113p is based on a gold price hitting $1870 or so at some point during the year and having updated and favourable resource and reserves updates. Centamin is a buy and hold with 22% upside imop.
2021 guidance delivered
· Strong safety performance: Q4 Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate ("LTIFR") of 0.31 per one million site-based hours worked; FY LTIFR of 0.46, 28% better than the annual target of 0.65 as the Company strives to create a zero-harm workplace
· Annual gold production delivered in line with guidance (400,000-430,000 ounces): Gold production of 107,549 ounces ("oz") for the three months to 31 December 2021 ("Q4"), totalling 415,370 oz for the twelve months of 2021 ("FY") and at the midpoint of guidance
· Strong revenue generation as well as elevated gold sales receivables: Q4 revenue of US$183 million, generated from gold sales of 99,936 oz at an average realised gold price of US$1,828/oz sold; FY revenue of US$733 million, generated from gold sales of 407,252 oz at an average realised gold price of US$1,797/oz sold
· Annual costs delivered in line with guidance: Q4 cash costs of US$972/oz produced and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of US$1,256/oz sold; FY cash costs of US$859/oz produced and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of US$1,211/oz sold were delivered at the midpoint of annual guidance (Cash costs: US$800-900/oz produced; AISC: US$1,150-1,250/oz sold)
· Excellent progress on essential capital projects: Q4 capital expenditure ("capex") of US$86 million; FY capex of US$233 million, exceeding the annual guidance of US$225 million due to the waste-stripping outperformance
· Exploration activities on schedule: Q4 exploration spend of US$6 million advancing the Doropo and ABC projects in Côte d'Ivoire; FY exploration spend was US$14 million and US$3 million below the annual guidance
· Strong balance sheet with no debt and no hedging: Cash and liquid assets of US$257 million, as at 31 December 2021
· No material impacts due to COVID-19: Full COVID-19 protocols remain in place, and supply chains and gold shipments have not been materially impacted
· The Company will publish its full year 2021 financial results and propose the final dividend in mid-March 2021
I haven’t sold at all apart from a few a bit over 200, but still sadly have held 430k all the way down. Mea culpa. Yes the market do looks forward, which is the worry that next year reporting in Mar 2023 will be far worse that the one we have just had, at this gold price, and as said profits will be way down. However hopefully sometime in not too distant future markets should begin to consider 2024
Sotolo the markets look forward not back...and the future looks much better now..Looking back the sp was over £2 and now it's bellow £1. I guess you sold too soon
For me the big thing was meeting guidance, I don’t see people rushing in but also I don’t see any reason to sell. Long term these results will give management credibility.
Sorry to be clear profits predicted to be down 30% this year 2022, compare to last 2021 reported today.
Incidentally
2019
Gold oz 480k
Aisc $943
So 2022 aisc up an amazing over 50% more than halving profits compared to 2019 before reduced ounces thought of, obviated by increased gold price.
All with my simple sums but makes one think this is around the right share price which would be lower without the premium for hope built in for 23/24. I expect a drift down but what do I know…markets are v fickle and may be relieved no worse and as said nothing we don’t know (sadly not for the good either’
They haven't made a big thing about the 58% quarter on quarter increase in production this year compared to last year, just some more warm words from MH
Personally , I think the update missed an opportunity, and I am expecting a muted response in the share price resulting from what was, for me , an unimpressive report.
Market might well see it different , let's wait and see
As expected nothing changed about poor 2021 compared to pre Covid years or the guidance that 2022 will be much worse. Remember profits are affected in order by gold price, aisc and then ounces, as any percentage change in gold price and aisc affect profits three times more than ounces mined and sold.
Gold goes up 7%
Aisc rises 12%
So profits down by around 30% this year compared to last
2021
415,370 oz for the twelve months of 2021
Aisc 1211
Capex 233
2022
Gold production of 430,000 to 460,000 oz
· Cash costs of US$900-1,000/oz produced
· AISC of US$1,275-1,425/oz sold
· Capex of US$215 million, including US$25 million of deferred solar and paste-fill plant construction expenditure from 2021
Hopefully the market know all of this and will begin to look toward 2023/24 and hole the management is right that costs will be controlled but of course also affected by hefty mine inflation.
We badly need a higher gold price to save us, but in real sterling terms still falling
Imho
Hitting the midpoints of guidance lends credibility to their guidance going forward. Slightly easier to be confident of actually achieving the promised higher ounces.
Seems reasonable. No surprises in there.
Stocks on European exchanges were below the flatline in premarket trade on Wednesday with traders anticipating inflation reports for Germany and the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, Germany reported a new record in daily coronavirus infections earlier in the day.
The DAX declined by 0.61%, London's FTSE 100 was down 0.51%, while the CAC 40 lost 0.66% at 6:47 am CET.
The euro was 0.10% up compared to the dollar at 7:10 am CET, trading for 1.13282. The British pound was 0.12% higher against the greenback, changing hands for 1.36007 a minute later.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / MS
Happy Wednesday y’al..
May today be a corner turned, rather than a hump to be gotten over.
Green shoots are due for sure.
Not long for the update, hope good news
CONTRY RISK SOUTH AFRICA/GOLD South Africa—Last May, three men strode into a suburban street and sprayed gunfire into a car, killing mining executive Nico Swart on his way to work.
Mr. Swart, 47 years old, had been a general manager at Richards Bay Minerals, or RBM, which is majority owned by global mining giant Rio Tinto PLC. His murder, which is still under investigation, marked another grim flashpoint in the decline of South Africa’s signature industry.
In June, protesters and looters attacked RBM operations, destroying property and mining equipment. In response, Rio Tinto declared force majeure on all customer contracts at RBM, employing the legal provision that excuses parties from contract terms because of unforeseen circumstances.
South Africa’s $24 billion mining sector, which has provided the raw material for nearly half the gold bullion and gold jewelry ever produced, is waning under the pressure of violent crime, growing costs and regulatory uncertainty, as well as tapped-out mines.
Some of the world’s most familiar mining brands have headed for the door, threatening severe consequences for South Africa’s struggling economy, which has also been walloped by Covid-19. The nation’s unemployment rate hit a record 34.9% last year. Mining employs more than 450,000 people and makes up some 8.4% of national economic output.
In recent years, South Africa’s metal refineries and processing plants have been the target of commando-style robberies carried out by Kalashnikov-toting gangs. Mining companies suffered 22 armed heists at precious-metal facilities in 2019 and 2020—a period of rising gold prices—as well as an attempted robbery in 2021, according to Minerals Council South Africa, an industry group.
“I’m very angry about what’s happening in South Africa, and disappointed,” said Neal Froneman, chief executive of Johannesburg-based Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd. , one of the world’s largest producers of platinum, palladium and gold. “But I have to put my personal views and emotions to one side. This is why we’re internationalizing our business.” The company in recent years has expanded mining operations to the U.S. and Finland.
The rest is not any better, but looks very grim for South Africa
I would put Sth African Gold Companies on a Hold or SELL
best
the gnome
Q4 is always Jan, then Q1 Apr, Q2 Jul, Q3 Oct, Q4 Jan again, and then after that full year annual report?
Hi Sotolo. I don't think people will compare back to 2019 simply because these figures won't appear anywhere .it will require them to ferret them out from previous reports, plus the current share price is heavily discounted against what it was back then anyway.
It's anybody's guess how the market will react, but mine is that the price will move up and there will be further positive momentum for a few days afterwards
I am not though as upbeat about their medium term prospects so I will be reducing my holdings probably before the end of the week .
I will still hold on to some (about 20%) in the hope of some further upside , but with limited damage if that doesn't transpire
Good luck
Preliminary production, sales and cost information for Q4 will be released on January 19th
Interesting that they choose to update the market on Jan 19th when their official Q4 2021 Results date isn’t scheduled until Wednesday, February 16th
*Head scratch, naa maybe just coincidence.
https://twitter.com/barrickgold/status/1481242129729040390?s=21
Apologies, I meant in the context of where it was trading running-in towards the end of the year. - Since the start of the new-year, there appears to be a stair-step up in the level of pricing which appears to be holding. - I was putting this down to the influence of Basel 111. - It would be good to find out for certain just what the situation really is here.
Not sure what you meant by Gold/Silver trading at a much higher level Rebess.
Gold was trading at around $1900 this time last year, and at $2000 in Jul 2020.
Sold today for 8% profit, don't fancy holding into the update. Hopefully the share price has a big uplift for any holders tomorrow but I think we'll be able to buy in the mid 80's again at some point. Just my 2 cents.