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What,another history lesson Mr T.
Look to a better future ,otherwise you know what to do. Or do you?
Whos 007, and why do you once again use suppositions of which you are so fond.
Give yourself a rest, sounds more like you are the bitter one.
There are many people on this BB that do not coment, just sit back and laugh at the entertainment.
As for trying to provoke me to insults ,give up ,you have proved yourself in the past to be the guilty one.
Re The future prospects are important ,not re-iterations of what happened in the past
Hi Mr Bond,
I totally disagree with you on this, we have had over well over a decade of the management trumpeting future prospects and then after a few spikes up in the share price the level to which it had risen couldn't be sustained because the results had been achieved by intentionally using unsound mining practice at Sukari and making what the management knew to be undeliverable guidance predictions, until the next RNS of the unexpected low grades which they knew about in 2015 but kept hidden necessitated the release of yet another RNS guidance cut, this usually after the BOD had already filled their boots with bonus shares or sold a shed load!
So what's different his time, so far it's much the same we are still waiting!
The big downside to owning Centamin shares today is the outrageously high AISC which seems baked-in for the next 2 years!
It was intimated that the astrochemical AISC the 2020 announcement of the 'Bonanza Zone' would be a way to add some high grade, allegedly these bonanza grades were very close to active mining stopes - so what happened?
That is to say ,why talk about a potential windfall only to have it fizzle out like a damp squib!?
Fantastic aspirations and promises that fade away, rather like a desert mirage! always seem to be the norm with this company!
As yet how can we be certain that that this current waste clearing blitz will not be the last - especially considering the north hill covering the Cleopatra zone was supposed to be further along in its removal by this stage?
If true, then how will that massive load of waste be 'caught up' ?
I recall in the past the management were questioned in regards to the dump truck fleet not being used to capacity (something like 20% spare capacity was noted in quarterly report after quarterly report) and that was the norm for years!
It never occurred to me they were not following the script on purpose - just had overcapacity built into the mining fleet, why?
So I shall keep revisiting the past until I see proof over several quarters that things have really changed!
Egyptian Mafia re fuel subsidy . I know it should not matter as it was a legally signed contract but we have seen how things operate over a number of years and they are poor country.
Lets hope that is recognized by EMRA and probably the waiver of this back dated fuel subsidy with exceptional good will on the exploration plots. However, it does feel if Centamin have to keep quiet and not kick up to many Pyramids!!! mmmm and then be poster boy when wanted to present to the outside world.
Anyway, great seeing you Cowichan !! please buy in soon again
007 - what happened to you in life that you are so bitter ? i pity you more than anything and wish you recover
I am only interested the SP, as I only care about my profit not the company's.
Steve I wasn’t talking about the share price but profit, of course the share goes all over the place but ultimately if Cey is making hundreds of thousand profit the share price is likely to be higher than if it makes none. And the good thing is at the current gold price profit looks like it would be around 2/3rds up on last year. I think the share price has risen quite a lot (around 60% coincidentally) in anticipation of this. It fell AC outlet of years ago in anticipation of the collapsed profit that transpires, of course there is not a direct link and lots of noise, but I prefer profit to be increasing.
Oh and Cowichan thanks as ever
Oh now we are public spirited are we .
Even though you say you are no longer invested in CEY, Admirable ,above and beyond the call of duty.
HA Ha.
wise words 007 - but I share actual company information so that current shareholders can
a) get out
b) gain confidence while remaining invested
I agree we probably cannot make a poor CEO exceptional - but the point of highlighting when the company does or doesn't do as it indicates during the past year - is to educate shareholders on the pitfalls or possibilities going forward
if the 2022 exploration spend wasn't made it's a good indication other spends are open to failure/change - like meeting 2023 production guidance and/or AISC forecasts
if you want to opine on King Canute why not join a historic book club chat group instead ?
Yes Steve its all about Centiment, :-), as the last time when it hit its highest.
But time has past ,its just History .
The future prospects are important ,not re-iterations of what happened in the past.
If people have no confidence in a new CEO, the the solution is simple.
Because if you think you are going to change them ,then you are dellusional.
But some are persistent, but for what, trying to change Centiment ;-), a little like the arrogant King Canute.
But after all this is just a Bulletin Board , so I suppose it is the normal.
That's way too simplistic Sotolo- the SP never reacts like this- sentiment, and the key drivers that drive CEY sentiment is key for the SP. As is beating the targets set.
2022
US $25million ; Doropo Pre-Feasibility Study $7million ; Doropo Definitive Feasibility Study $8million ; ABC Project $4million ; Eastern Desert Blocks $3million ; Batie West License & Admin $3million
https://www.centamin.com/media/2477/centamin-investor-presentation-jan2022.pdf pg 26
vs
2023
Exploration spend is budgeted at US$30 million, including US$23 million for the pre-development study work on the Doropo Project ; ( leaving $7 million split between Eastern Desert & ABC presumably )
Questions to ask: 1) was the 2022 Doropo budget not spent ? How did the year pass without it being spent ?
Given the exploration spending for 2023 at Doropo is for the same items as 2022 and the fact the Doropo permit containing the primary resource had expired in June 2022 ( see PR- 334 Granted 06-12-2013 Expired 06-11-2022 ) https://portals.landfolio.com/CoteDIvoire/en/
One must assume the 2022 spend was halted pending permit renewal approval .
Or are they are going to spend twice/double on the same items ?
Mr Tibbles, that is just my reading, and I think Kees is as ever right: in 2023 ounces mined are predicted to be back up to 465k, with a mid predicted aisc of $1325 cey would be making around $600 an ounce at current gold price or $300k, or hopefully decently over £100k with Emra and royalty removed. Which would put us back on a pe of 13 our historic norm or less as I have been very conservative. Of course we are very geared to any gold rise or fall, but. With luck gold may rise to take account of t he rising aisc, tho we will never get back to the days before the Emra profit share.
Good point Tibbs about the voluntary sacrificing of $367m worth of fuel subsidies that was tied-up in the legal framework of the original contract, in the same way that the 50/50 split was tied-up. In other words the T&C's. - Why would any company operating under shall we say normal commercial terms and normal rules and regulations and obligations of contract, walk away from what is their legal right? - As you say, what would have happened if Centamin had decided to renege on the 5/50 commitment? - Something doesn't add up here in terms of commercial-logic. - Given the parlous state of the Egyptian economy, could an accommodation of adjustment to the 50/50 split not have been made?- 60/40 as you suggest or even 70/30, whatever, for the number of years it would take to balance. - How on earth can a FTSE 250 companies affairs be interfered with in such a way? - Who's running Centamin?
Upside target 1950-52 this should fly this afternoon!
Hi Paul,
Yes indeed so would I like to reach £3 and indeed we could well have done were it not ior having to pay for Pardey & Youssef's pile of crap too be cleared up!
That said and no one seems really bothered on here but $367m in what can be described as illegally or unjustifiably withdrawn diesel subsidy would have also gone some considerable way to paying to put things right at Sukari, but no Centamin decided it was better to walk away and not risk losing the appeal?
Unbelievable, the fuel subsidy was part of the original concession agreement and that is enshrined in Egyptian law.
If it is OK for EMRA to change the terms of the concession then why shouldn't Centamin amend the profit share to 60% Centamin 40% EMRA, see how that would go down!
When the fuel subsidy was withdrawn Centamin layers stated that Centamin had a very strong case foe the appeal , however if the case was found in Centamins favour then the Egyptian government would have to pay back the withdrawn subsidy but that would be impossible in one lump because of the dire state of Egyptian finances, so the only alternative would be stage payment from profit share , that wouldn't be popular to say the least!
So by coincidence now it seems Law 32 is ratified, the court case goes away and Centamin have thrown in the towel on getting back their, our money!
Thanks Mr T. I,d feel a lot happier if we reached the £3 a share that Sotolo spoke of before all the waste hit the fan! I'd even get some gold plated steel toecaps for my gardening boots :D
I have the feeling that with a bit of good news or good luck that we could have a jump----------but looking over the years, £1-30 ish seems a "normal" sort of price for us, without having problems.
However------£1-30 would be ok with me with decent dividiends.
Well said Rebess,
The world and certainly the UK is in a terrible mess, the present political, market and monetary systems have been tinkered about with and fudged to cover up the inequality, unfairness ,sheer selfishness and greed of the privileged crooks that run them that its no longer possible to cover it up any longer and the only solution which is to scrap it all and start again is unpalatable to the deceiving,self serving and incompetent greedy political leaders the world over!
I think he is saying that the 'Vortex' created by a crashing/sinking market will suck everything down with it. - Gold included.
It begs the question - 'Where is safe'?
Hi Paul,
I am very hesitant to post anything now that may be prove not to work out, as predicted or hoped for, or anything that may be misconstrued as investment advice or that might influence members investment strategy or decisions.
However as you understandably after all that has happened in past years may feel somewhat let down or disillusioned I thought you may like to read an opinion on the latest Centamin Q4 report from Kees Dekker mining analyst that has come my way.
You may recall that Kees was the only mining analyst to warn of the way that Sukari was being operated in 2015 & 2018, his concerns were subsequently proven to be justified.
Kees opinion on the latest Q4 report
"The company came out of this year not to battered with only US$17 million negative net cash flow. Having passed he capex peak and with the rising gold price next year should be a lot better. My understanding is that the share price has already reflected that and Centamin outperformed the market last year."
I hope that may help you feel a little more upbeat!
Tibbs
Whatever anyone thinks of Harry Dent .
He obviously makes a living by his predictions.
Just goes to show there is one on every corner, ;-)
Yep- Gold, like stocks, can only go up or down... when people are right the first time every says wow, until they are wrong- of course some are never wrong like MADOFF lol... they make money from clicks and subs and are pointless. Look at the last 30years and the charts for pretty much all major investments people make, property, stocks, commodities etc etc. and the times there is a crash- if you add up all the weeks over time - you can calculate the odds of predicting a big crash eg >25% drop v just trading on the chances of your investments going up in 30 years... and yes, I've seen the film the big short, and the stories of the lucky few who got in on recent oil price crash, but what these stories fail to mention in the millions who lost out whilst waiting and predicting these things. I held tight in March2020 and markets are way higher now than before and if you listened to all the doomsayers we should have been at least 50% lower across most markets... the nutty thing is, the doomsayers are still banging on, and those that listened are still sitting on their 30% losses when they bailed ~April2020 on pure fear and waiting - but it will take about a 50% crash now for them to justify their sell and break even, such as been growth since then...
Likely Harry Dent would have sold "Snake oil" in the wild west!
Cowichan this from Wikipedia on Harry Dent’ forecasts and performance:
In 2012 the "Dent Tactical Advantage ETF," symbol DENT, was de-listed having consistently under-performed the market for three years while at the same time charging an egregiously high 1.65% management fee.[7]
In 2012, he began writing weekly articles for the free investment newsletter Survive & prosper, now known as: Economy & Markets, which offers investment advice guided by his belief that a major economic crash is inevitable and that it will drop the DOW all the way to 3,300. As of early 2013, he has amended his predictions slightly to an expectation that the financial crash will begin between the end of 2013 and the first half of 2014.[citation needed]
In 2013, Dent predicted the market would crash again in the Summer of 2013 and would take a further year and a half to recover.[8]
In 2014, while promoting his book The Demographic Cliff in Australia, he predicted a major Australian housing market correction beginning in 2014 after an even bigger one in China.[9] He also predicted that the price of gold would fall to USD$700 an ounce, and has since revised this prediction to 2017.[10]
On December 10, 2016, Dent predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial average could fall 17,000 points as a result of Donald Trump's election win. Less than two weeks later, Dent reversed his opinion and thinks there is short term growth for the US stock market, but demographic forces will keep the economic growth stagnant in the longer term.[11]
Larry Swedroe, writing for CBS Money Watch asks, "Why do people listen to Harry Dent in light of his obvious inability to accurately predict the future?"[14]
Gold may go any way and no one knows so I would ignor the so called pundits and stick to the tea leaves. All the best
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