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Assuming for simplicity there are 3.4b shares in the combined BPC/CERP after merger, using figures as stated in recent presentations which talked of a combined market cap of £125m this equates to a SP of 3.67p. However for the sake of this exercise, let’s be conservative and use a combined market cap of c£100m and 3p per BPC share as a bottom line base, on the morning after the merger.
What will affect this 3p baseline until year end are two sets of future news: BPC news relating to events leading to the Bahamas spud and CERP news on everything else. For simplicity I will use the following assumptions:
1. BPC news post-merger will affect c75% of the overall SP and market cap; CERP news c25%.
2. BPC news expected will likely deal purely with the spud, and in February 2020 experts predicted 8p. For simplicity, rather than a prediction on my part, let’s assume this figure is 6p post-merger, not taking into account CERP news, but taking into account 800m new CERP converted shares.
3. CERP news expected post-merger (courtesy of LGO-fan 8/7/20) includes
• New Contract for Goudron with far better terms, allowing for more profitable BOPDs
• Test results from S1 (MC), and turning this into a producer
• Start drilling S2 ASAP
• Successful CO2-project
• Concrete Plans for WNZ
4. LGO-fan also predicted possibility of 5-10p SP had CERP remained as now, un-merged, based on above news.
Key questions:
(a) How much will the £100m market cap (3p/share) increase based on the above scenarios leading to a DEFINITE Perv-1 spud?
(b) How will the SP change based on positive or negative CERP news?
(c) What will happen when other institutional investors in addition to J Finn and Mersey pension fund, have a flutter based on the huge ROI potential of finding a middle eastern sized oil field 1st qtr 2021? (Remember a small flutter on their part, equates to a typical private investor’s life’s savings)
All constructive feedback welcome.
Starchild
xxx
Leo Koot brought 12,437,930 shares @ 2.70p
$40.56. This is very postive as LK said we wanted oil above $35pb did he not (POSITIVE)
Would makes you say 8 - 10p pre spud?
BPC at 5.3p in 5 years time
This board is turning into a complete torrent of negativity - from all the posts it seems not even 5p will have again which is where we were before the Saffron drill, of which this was successful. Wait till the merger and near the spud of Perservance 1 I think we will be on the other side of 5p. Hopefully nice price by the winter holidays. Any ideas of a winter holiday price?
Someone obviously whats the shares now can't be long before this tick up I would have thought and good news for after the merger.
We have a big few months ahead with a lot of news to come after the merger. Remember we are producing in Saffron.
Offerman - best wishes for the future - your posts were always refreshingly enthusiastic and earnest!
Difficult to know what's really been going on over the last few years but the constant financial juggling to make the big breakthrough of financial profitability for CERP seems to have worn the management down. I liked the idea of onshore drilling with lower costs and environmental risks and although CERP was always a share in the higher risk band the spread portfolio was a comforting factor. If the P1 drill fails CERP assets will be the fallback position but CERP will have given away around three quarters of the company so no popping of champagne corks in that scenario.
Unfortunately due to lack of info I have to believe all the arguments were properly weighed and this is the best way forward - ATB Arry!
Sorry all that was supposed to be on BPC forum.
You have to do your calculations properly. CERP holders will be well down on their holdings. CERP was at 2.4/2.6 proportions to merger announcement. It’s dropped 0.8p if you have 100,000 shares in CERP shareholders, after the merger, will have 80300. So 80,300 x 2.43 =£1951.29 at present 100,000 x 1.88= £1880. £70 profit is hardly a windfall. If the BPC price goes lower then it’s even less. I understand why CERP Pis are upset and I reiterate they have more to lose. I hold both shares now but prior to the merger announcement only held BPC. I agree with Malcy’s interview when he said BPC have went from a one trick pony to a company with multi assets. That’s if the merger happens of course.
I think you are looking at 8p to 10p pre the Q4 drill. Brighty.
Agree LGO, expect even lower after merger !
If you combine current SPs then I doubt we will see 4.5-5 p after merger , more like 2.5-3p.
They will eventually do rights issues and more 20-1 conversions dilute even more no doubt .
And that is the opportunity here that people are starting to see with the daily decrease in the BPC share price (2.49 now). It will certainly be interesting. CERP holders could do nicely if the BPC remains lower until after the merger (takeover!) Nicely put Philipy. My thinking is that this could be the outcome and then a few good RNS' take the newly merged share price higher in the run up to the drill in q4. So in summary, if this continues then CERP holders are on to a windfall of sorts. DYOR. Brighty.
Don't post much these days here or elsewhere for personal matters. Just popped in for a read catch up in amongst the usual childish antics from the trolls of yesteryear .
Most spot on post from Razor I have seen out of everything anywhere for a while
Definitely sold out on the cheap . Npv alone for saffron was 91m. Ax Razor says , look at the amazing renegotiations that we're achieved.
Seems to me impatience , fallings out between management themselves , throw in Schroeders not happy too ,hence bailing early , something happened along the way we will never be privy too. If people couldn't work together then there was no hope . LK and team had turned us around but for me his worst decision yet to sell us out at such a low SP compared to the whole NAV.
Aimho of course
If on the day before the takeover (oops, sorry, merger) you hold 1000 CERP shares at an av price of 2p, their value is obviously 2000p. ( £20)
The day after, you will receive 0.803 x 1000 BPC shares = 803shares.
If the BPC share price drops to, say, 2p then your original CERP £20 shareholding will suddenly now be worth 2 x 803 = 1606p ( £16.06 )
Good deal!
The interesting question here is is the BPC share price going to be lower than the CERP share price by merger day? And if so how will this impact CERP share holders. Brighty
Hargreaves Lansdown account users should see the corporate action icon now on their account overview, vote before 21 July noon deadline.
All the best.
I assume like me most of you have noticed that as soon as the share price goes up Lind start selling so I'm just wondering if the share price will go much higher and (please correct me if I am wrong ) they get another tranche of shares middle of this month too.
Bit of a punt
Harryoffdock......that'll be fantasy and not fact from willec...( that's right isn't it willec)....he has a terrible habit of sharing his dreams from the night before on here....hence no facts to back it up....tge only fact is ...no one really knows what's going to happen....and it's all a bit of a inpu t really....YES...you can read the RNS Issued by both companies but they rwallydonttwll go anything hence the sp for both
Terrible English!
But if Desire shares were bought at their lowest, post multiple failures but before the (I would say clear opportunity for FOGL) then a significant uplift was available. You are correct that offshore exploration is highly risky and in that sense trading and investing on licence or corporate transaction news can be profitable. Clear defensive positioning by BPC as a strategy for Perseverance failure. Cerp need exposure to massive upside as well, quite marginal at the moment due oil price.
Harry is this your professional financial advice or just your opinion.
“ if you only have a few shares dont go shelling out lots of cash for advice try n find a family friend who may be able to help you good luck.”
Fuss09 - when it flies it will be above 5p in no time as this is where we weere before Saffron and all the other good news - looking forward to the rest of the year and going to be a very nice end to year.