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Morning All,
Cons:
1. We have had no financial transparency as of yet.
2. Most likely , poor results to come as we have outstanding bills ( potentially large ones to settle).
3. If results are bad they will most likely raise more money ( several options , pending ongoing testing with S2).
4. P1 results = no P2 to come unless partner can be found. Suicidal to try go alone again even if s2 3/4 FFD are successes.
5. Enviros and government totally against us there and anything to stop/ hinder/ financially cripple us will be tried without fail.
6. Salaries far too high and so called incentives for retainers is pish imho. Even if based on higher current sp. Mark should be set mucho much higher if they truly believed in what we have and potential too. They get good enough salaries for a poor job / bad luck , results from drills to date ex S1/2.
7. Full Financial results most likely will look rather dire.
8. Sentiment plays a big part too and currently is smashed to kingdom come.
Pros:
1. S2 comes in on target of 200-300 bopd
2. S3/4/5 poportedly fully funded.
3. Even if S2 comes in 150 bopd we can still drill 4/5
and maybe they would be in the 200-300 range.
4. Whole of SWP does have Estimated reserves of 1.3 bbo,
5. There is most likely a lot of oil deeper in the Herrera sands which I think we should look to drill ( not P2 unless partner funds the drill and fights the government and enviros).
6 . Another 9 saffron lookalikes to target in the meantime.
7. Pressures are quite high from what we know on S1 and API of excellent quality thus most likely being freed from a deeper source.
8. Potential additional production from Suriname at minimal cost.
Summary: a lot of financial uncertainties at present weighing on the sp.
We need clear concise financial figures of exactly where we stand ( no Chuff).
Once/ if we can get this out even if it looks so bad it needs to be out.
Focus on what we have and of s2 3/4 and so on can bring in the revenue then I firmly believe we can see a recovery in our financial position.
Find the very best financial deal/s possible to clear bills etc.
Only then can we look to see a recovery in sentiment.
We need some good luck as Does every company at times.
We have hope, we just need to be shrewd and very careful moving forwards.
Don’t bite off more than we can chew.
We could then use the cash generated bye our local revenue content targeting a deeper drill where they could be substantial amount of oil
They could be oil further down in several as the API does seem to be of good quality for relatively shallow depths. If there are no shale issues in the LC then we could get good flow rates which could flow naturally for 1 to 2 years before requiring the assistance of a pump. My understanding is we wouldn’t use anything techniques unless it was much happier oil at deeper steps per pump could be used after natural decline in Output.
So pressures could be quite good for some time .
We just need good sensible honest management from here on in
A bigger outfit would be more prepared for environment groups, this and any other challenges in the Bahamas so leave all of that to them. Let them fully fund it, we hold a retainer percentage should in the event of a miracle a drill P2 takes place and a successful strike.
Morning SC,
Why did the sp drift down after the OO.
My take . In my many years experience of these OO, some do go down some do go up afterwards.
Sentiment can play a large part, and here it has been smashed for many reasons for v quite a while.
This has caused selling pressure and with so many at such a loss including myself is no wonder really that it continued its journey down.
Also , results are probably playing on some investors minds as well as they won’t look great, putting further pressure and negative sentiment to some , especially lth’s.
There’s the outstanding fees matters as yet unresolved too.
There is light at the end of the tunnel, we are very down BUT not out. We lost top middle batsmen for very little gain.
We need bottom end batsman for a great partnership to bat us back in to the game. ( saffron 2 flow rates and hopefully ffd)
Then a second innings performance right across the board with at least 4 or off the 9 other saffron’s.
Forget about P2 Bananas in Bahamas, unless we can find a partner who sees enough quality in the data set, plus wranglings fees with Bahamas gov can be resolved. I say bananas because that’s what the whole situation has been with Enviro’s covid, **** poor odier etc and press. So really we need to focus finances , LOGIC & common sense on where to go next . That is become self sufficient, don’t throw more money in to Bahamas units someone else is going to pay for it.
If S2 FR come in good then get this going get the corn coming in and progress this at full throttle and the other saffron lookalikes. Also bring on Suriname too to add to the coffers. We have a couple of years for Uruguay without any major Capex so on the few years we should be able to generate some decent cash flow .
We need management to saddle up with regular decent straightforward communications
So far imho Etyan has done a good job with Comms , so keep going with that.
A long way to go though for me personally to say incredible job . Will take a couple of years for me to see true honesty and prove the worth of their salaries and repair smashed confidence and sentiment .
For all my wishes , any success and generated cash flow DO NOT EVER TRY P2 go it alone . Yes of course if P1 was a success we would have been shouting from the rooftops but the fact it didn’t and we did the hard work of drilling that alone so pass the costs to someone else. DONT do any finance deals off potential oil in the ground from saffron two or any of the other potential saffron licenses if there is a discovery. I don’t do finance deals to offset the house and spend it all on B2 just focus on what we have. Don’t forget in SWP there is an estimated 1.3 billion barrels of oil ( much of this in Herrera sands ).
So if we get success saffron which are relatively shallow trails if we make 27 million per year based on poo/saffron alone, if we can get lucky on say four of the other saffron potentials that’s 14
Hi lgo, hope you’re well.
My personal opinion is we should only look at the Bahamas now if the licenses are granted and then and if only If a farmout partner is found who can cover our costs for any outstanding fees plus for perseverance 2 free carry and I retainer of a small percentage should any success materialise .
However that is all probable pipedreams and looking into the future nothing ever goes smoothly with this company to date.
In my opinion what we should focus on is what they are doing right now with flow testing. Then if there’s any success with this, they should focus on the potential nine other equivalent saffrons that they spoke of.
If we have full field development bringing in revenues between 25 to 30,000,000 per annum at 4000 BOPD
And if we had three more successes out of the nine that would give us 100 million per annum net inclusive of saffron.
Of course we need sustained flow rates in the near term.
What is of interest is the quality at relatively shallow depth at 40 api and is indicative perhaps Of being fed from a lower depth ,possible Herrera sands.
So it might also be worthwhile looking at the seismic again and seeing if it would be worthwhile doing a deeper drill in a similar area at a later date . First and foremost focus on saffron and the other shallow targets then we can start looking at deeper place where the real oil potential could be.
I would personally say let’s just ditch Bahamas if we can’t find a farm out partner who will cover any outstanding fees and full carry for perseverance 2 .
There is no way on the planet that I would want them to use all of the profits should that be the case with saffron and any other shallow successes should not be used for any future perseverance 2 funding i.e any more doing it alone at 150£m I know the second one wouldn’t be this total probably in the region of 30 to 50 m but that’s still a lot of cash imho.
Hi LGO,
Many thanks for your kind words.
Without saying too much.
It’s been very best tough times which continued on after losing dad. Mum was diagnosed with progressive cancer. We remain positive though looking forwards. Weather has helped us immensely recently allowing me to get to grips making her garden what she always dreamed of.
Lockdown restrictions easing also helped as least she can see friends again . I had suffered after the vaccine 4 months ago and couldn’t walk for much of 8 weeks. Am much better now and walking jogging whenever wherever I can and cut out sugars which feels great much more energy.
That was an extremely difficult few years and this cold very long winter just passed. Mucho more went on too besides but don’t want to clog up here too much . Been tough for so many out there not just my family.
Hope you’re ok mate and everyone here .
Back to CEG ,100% agree with your points in your post LGO RE better T&Cs
Not long to wait now for S2 let’s hope for positive results this time round for one ‘ n all.
Morning LGO,
Yes, it’s best to focus on where the oil is more proven. Focus on Saffron and if good here I believe focus on FFD then use organic capital after this point to use 3m for next Saffron lookalike and so on.
Also after or during these targets ( based on further success of course) go for one of the deeper targets ( gorilla in SWP targeting the Herrera . That could be where the real oil is in vast quantities possibly in the 100msboIP .
Much further down the road I do think it would be worth a more detailed look at below Goudron.
I did see him show on the seismics the target below Goudron so something of huge quantity COULD be there.
Of course for the medium term keep focusing on the shallower less costly targets and get ourselves in to a cash rich fully self sufficient situation.
Also much further down the track of we get a good deal of success why not contemplate dividends or even a share but back and have less shares in circa too if all went well. They will most like at some point dilute again ( even with the access to the further 10m 8p option ) judging by the stipulations put in place without the need of shareholder approval.
I want to see strong growth using our existing acreage in swp . Get that cash in back growing exponentially , we have so much oil potential in the whole of SWP with pretty high COS .
Although small I remember clove was given a higher than 66% COS . Instead they decided on Saffron where more oil was likely which seems like the correct decision.
Let’s get cash generative , self sufficient, reward long suffering shareholders like myself and many more by way of a decent solid safe financial strong company , communication to shareholders is essential along with upfront and honesty going forward.
Also when cash rich, have a look at other producing and exploratory asset potential acquisitions which that has said in Columbus days that would do with all went a tad tits up on that front.
Saffron is key to unlocking so much value elsewhere in swp and who knows very long term why not have a poke at Below Goudron enormous structure…… ( very long term in future)
Regards OM
Afternoon gents ,
How refreshing when I pop in here to read some really good posts . So thank you for those.
Egg, I was just about to post the exact same thing but you beat me to it.
Remember Leos words that the prospect below Goudron is enormous, bigger than Goudron itself.
One would think it would be less tight oil if any found due to completely separate reminders structure than above.
Leo did state to me in person that licensing for below would not be an issue as we own the licensee and above so no one could theoretically just drill down from above apart from us he said it would be a formality to obtain the licenses for below .
And he said they didn’t target below due to the efforts of clearing extra forest ETEC was his words .
It would be more cost-effective to drill down into a known oil province which proved successful over at saffron ( thus far).
My feeling is if we can get saffron right and produce from two structures and hit the target of 4000 BOPD then why not go after one of the deeper targets as well as the other nine saffron lookalikes.
One of the deeper targets could indeed be the enormous structure shown on the seismics below Goudron .
Maybe we could yet clawback some of our huge losses. Time will tell I guess. Certainly will be my last bite of the cherry. I didn’t participate in the open offer as have enough risk anyway I lost far too much.
Funds have been tight anyway to say the least so not worth risking more .
Plus with the potential catastrophic results to come within the next three months and in my experience open office majority of the time boys have a falling share price afterwards as demonstrated yet again here.
However with the upcoming awful results could somewhat be offset with success at saffron2
We also have Suriname to come soon as well which could provide a much-needed boost too.
Hi Mike,
Been awhile since I posted. Had rather a lot going on in my private life RE bereavement & cancer.
Just want to say thanks for considerably backing the OO.
Last time I remember a post from you ,you mentioned about selling some to offset tax losses or something.
Did you end up selling many at that time ?
Let’s hope this time round S2 will be fulfilled and development comes in.
Morning Mike
Thank you for your kind reply .
Well said too .
I wish you luck as well with it all. We still have excellent prospects in T&T
ATB Offerman .
Hi BigMike,
What are your thoughts ? Have you bailed or remaining ?
Thanks
Hi Lim
Please can you elaborate on this Ministerial aide leak ? Where is the info for this ? Does this fall online with POC rumours too , Thanks
Hi Starchild,
Thanks again for your hard work and detailed posts.
I have been asked to invite you to participate in a BPC discussion group .
Just wondered if you would be interested? It’s a small group of great people . The app is called telegram, the group is , BPC . You would be more than welcome in there as such the feedback and discussion about you in there has been Very good snd you’re very well respected . Be good to see you in there .
Thank you for your answers guys.
Morning all,
45-60 days as stated when results will be known by.
That makes it mid Feb .
Why was is stated from S.P that we will know by April if the Bahamas will be oil rich ?
I thought we would know by or on mid Feb.
Or is April or before that a deal FO or buyout of asset/group could be negotiated . ?
Thanks on this one as timelines didn’t make sense to me .
Or will it take until April to ascertain all results from all zones ( if hydrocarbons on many of the zones).
Hi CERP
Thanks for the reply. Yes, something was definitely not right , i think you’re correct though about being pushed.
Morning CERP,
I liked Leo a lot but I have to agree with you that something doesn’t ring true in all this the same s as something wasn’t right with old management under CERP for their last year either.
Like you say the fact he’s involved with tulip seems strange .
Again, I think possible that BPC didn’t have plans for him anyway with the enlarged group despite the fact they said about his expertise in T&T .
It was probably a goodwill save face thing to bring him across . Then planned axing further down the road as he’s gone now . Maybe they said let’s just say you go for personal reasons ( but possibly behind the scenes they didn’t require him , ) note they didn’t bring any other members from CERP over , Malcy said the fact they didn’t bring anyone over speaks volumes. Maybe They inc LK in that too..... guess we will never know but something wasn’t right from CERP days management to now .