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SC
The Goudron production was reduced at the time because -
Leo said "
- Too much downtime for the wells as sand mixing in too much.
- per barrel costs only break even when manhours downtime taken in to consideration
- supposed to have renegotiated with heritage better fiscal terms before bringing production back up.
- this does not have appeared to materialised RE fiscal individual Goudron terms .
- Goudron oil at such shallow depths to reach is off too higher quality for those depths . Normally oil would have degraded that near to the surface but its being fed from below and that's what is of interest as egg also mentioned .
I think pay on performance would have been more aligned. Yes some incentives . Maybe a 50% incentive then the rest on proof .
TXP Herrera discoveries were amazing . T&T is ripe across the region . So many seeps in so many places , seen first hand by many including GS.
With a larger entity easier to go for this in future .
If P1 is a success and sold after that or after p2 we will be cash rich to continue with
- Beneath Goudron Enormous size, echos there.
-Uruguay
-Surinam
- 9 Anticlines T&T
- WF Goudron
- Trinity innis
-Iacos
-South Erin
- SCap
- Bonasse
- Continued Saff extraction .
And more ...
Morning SC,
Yes this was agreed previously.
"The terms of the EPSC are largely consistent with the terms that previously prevailed under the existing Goudron Production Sharing Contract."
I thought the terms were to be improved for Goudron unless this falls under the wider umbrella of the general SPT higher ceiling .
With Regard to what lays beneath Goudron , well it's enormous according to Leo .
Ross back in the day always used to say it's not licensed to us . Correct , but nothing to stop us awaiting this license .
Leo's direct words to me were , that would be a foregone conclusion because it's below our current Goudron licence , no one else could drill it as it's under ours. We would just apply for a license when the time was right but currently more value is elsewhere in SWP for less Capex than beneath Goudron .
So not only does this guarantee ot production for years to come out also will increase due to WF project that will take place during 2021.
And what lays beneath Goudron is ENORMOUS in Leo's words .
Goudron had revised CPR up to 1.1 BBOIP 3-4% Rec.
WF could increase this to 7% maybe 10?
If below Goudron is in the Herrera sands then this should be less tight potentially more recoverable and I suspect API of good quality albeit not as 1st class as S1 but good none the less.
Morning Pacman, your second to last paragraph is spot on imho.
Someone trying to break us to pick up direct cheap assets perhaps .
Don't think it will work somehow .
Don't forget BiGMJ owned a company specialising in the Legal aspect. Do you really think he would invest all that money here if he thought we had done something illegal . He has more direct contact to Mr Potter than most of us so no doubt he has been reassured nothing can be fine to prevent the drill.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/933024
So I'm not sure if that's what they mean or if they are criticising the way the decisions were made by Personal at the time.
what I feel slightly angry about is Southwest Peninsula exploration BPC formed the view that there are nine prospects each estimated to have over 10 million barrels rec.
Compare this to the 12 that were mentioned by the old company and stated containing between 20000000to 400,000,000 barrels of oil for each one.
Now that's been reduced to only nine and each one of the nine containing only 10 million barrels of oil recoverable.
Was the old management telling us a load of crap to gloss up and make it sound so amazing ? Or are the new management being too conservative.
Maybe being more Conservative should've been the way to go previously if this is indeed the case. Better to have some lower estimations but then be pleasantly surprised as opposed to the other way around.
I'm slightly confused by the new companies position of at least 1mmbbls NET as I was under the impression we had between 17-23 mbo rec net already including saffron and other licences Goudron etc.
Overall I'm pleased with the new management but I do have outstanding queries and questions included in my negatives section.
Generally though there is a lot of work coming up between now and the end of 2021 with potential enormous transformation if Percy one comes off.
- Malcy recently mentioned only one person came over from the old management which says a lot about the rest. Pretty much in those words even if I haven't got it word for word correct.
- So why are we not told everything under the old management of things not going right or whether the arguments behind the scenes?
- The 180 workovers that is mentioned in section 2 I'm assuming many of these will be at Goudron ? If so then what about the sound issues what about the breakeven price. Struggling to get my head around the new team versus the old team and why wasn't more done with the old if the new teams ideas is proven to be successful?
- They mentioned at the end of October production from existing wells is now consistently averaging 435 BOPD but are these going to be profit making wells and if so why wasn't this done before when they mentioned previous sound issues have all of these miraculously gone away? I think not.How can you reactivate the Wells and not have the decline.
- Please refer back to I think it was 2017 web cast from Leo showing graphs of loads of wealth that had increased 20% all the way up to 80% even more I'm sure on someone wells. This caused initial euphoria and excitement only to be a huge disappointment further on down the track when declines were observed.
- Has all of this miraculously gone away how can this be possible?
- 435 BOPD doesn't sound a lot at all and we need to ask how many of these barrels are just at breakeven as this is what was happening with reactivation rejuvenations of older wells previously.
- We don't need extra barrels of oil if the money is not there for profit in producing these. We don't want to make it look good on paper just for the sake of it. I remember when Leo cracked the whip across the whole portfolio as he had promised at one stage I think it was 1000 bopd and to save face he temporarily up to production to meet his target. Of course this was not sustainable very very far from it. But I think he felt he had to prove a point that it was capable even if not consistent.
In the last paragraph they mention that as previously advised the targeted level of production of 500 bopd before year end with a profit of $20 per barrel after lifting costs would generate surplus cash.
Isn't this what was tried before but failed so I don't really see the difference when previous management came in saying they were going to increase production due to new techniques and machinery bought in. This didn't work due to sand issues and also fiscal Terms.
The mention of unswept oil, why wasn't this done before?
BPC mentioned the second well can be better managed than the first as there were a number of operational issues with saffron one drilling campaign so why wasn't it better managed the first time round? I think with the first well it's all unknowns and you have to deal with the issues as they arise. So I'm not sure if that's what they mean or if they are criticising the way the decisions were
Good morning,
Having just read the RNS here's my take on it.
Positives :
-Substantial increase in field activities including additional rig.
-plans for enhanced EOR for the CO2 injection
-saffron 2 plans targeting a thicker measured section of reservoir. Excellent as well that saffron two will be an instant production well.
-excellent news that BPC will now own hundred percent owned Saffron without the leakage of equity. In Leos defence he had to do something like this at the time as the company was a cash strapped but now as a larger entity this enables us to take full control of the well.
-Suriname second well Q1 2021.
Excellent shallow well only 1100 feet. And will be a producer a straight afterwards.
-Percy 1 near-term potential company maker catalyst.
-CPR across the whole portfolio.
-mention of waterflood. The ongoing pilot charging the Wells has proven a success hence warranting 12 phases of injection across the field to improve the reservoir pressure.
- excellent about the SWP and 3-D seismic over the areas of interest will be completed in January 2021 following ontothree potential material prospects for exploration drilling in the second half of 2021.
Negatives:
-
- The mention of successful placement of experienced personnel to key roles focused on production oversight and measurement? Isn't this what was happening before under Leo?
- The mention of deployment of personal resources to best projects? Again, isn't this what was supposed to of been happening before under Leo ? This insures optimal range field activities? And without wanting to sound like a broken record this was what was supposed to of been happening under previous management?
- Improved management of existing wealth stock and arresting production decline? Once again this was what Leo did and stated they were focusing on the best wells rather than wells with sand issues that were not bringing in the breakeven revenues due to constant shutdown of Wells to treat the sand issues.
- Section 2. My response to Second paragraph: the reason production fell insured was because the wells were not justified to keep producing due to the sand problems and we were awaiting the new fiscal Terms to make these Wells worthwhile to produce from once better negotiated fiscal terms were agreed then we were planning to raise the production again.
- What's the point of increasing well production if the revenue from each well will not be more than breakeven.
- When Leo and Team came in they said they would use specialist skills to them to enhance recovery. But what the new team were saying seems to be repeating what was said before. New completion designs and materials? So why didn't Leo and team do this before if this is proven to be more of a success? What does the new team know that the whole team didn't.
- Malcy recently mentioned only one person came over from the old management which says a lot about the rest. Pretty much in those words even if I
Excellent posts star.
Current Ex Cerp Oil NET 17-22 mbo Rec.
see what revised group CPR brings.
Also Saffron NPV near present value is 91m on its own ..!
Good morning ,
I would just like to add the following .
So further down the line we could investigate deer levels .
-Goudron initial CPR 800mboip v good API.
-Revised CPR 1.2BBOIP Current REC 3%
-Ongoing EOR ( I haven't heard this failed). The wells WERE charging at last report. So until stated otherwise then that ongoing. Remember , the quantity of water that gets pumped in =BOO that will come out "lk. They must be well over 1 or 2 MBOW to date. News could come of this.
-What lays beneath Goudron? Considerably more that 1.2 billionBOIP, will it be more than 3rec on that ? Most likely yes as in deeper Herrera zones and beyond with less traps tight oil less likely that upper geology. Could be gas too, possibly condensate too which in itself can command higher prices than standard to market due to it being wet gas . Oil best but can't knock Condensate either should that be there too.
T&T seem to have good O.R from these zones .
Saffron1-2 not even part of the larger 12 targets identified containing 20-400mbo . Again , these will target Herrera zones and more. Increased COS on these targets as wider topology is indicative.
Saffron virtually TAX FREE as it currently stands : First 10MBO tax free at current know quantities , taxable on only 1mbo as 11mbo identifies as of yet...
And this is only focusing on a few of former CERP potentials. Take a look at seismics that were shown to see for yourself .
Have a nice weekend all.
Thank you Min.
I forgot to add in my long post that the first 10 million barrels produced S1 ARE TAX FREE another deal Leo team struck up .
Thank you very much Starchild. Really appreciate your kind words and so true xx
I want to help family and if I had millions I could help so many more people beyond too.
Thank you Linton . I hope it comes off for everyone I really do. Yes it's been difficult but we always look at others too who have been worse off hit harder than us and pray for them .
ANd apologies as I'm not or sure if I thanked you for your support and kind words after my first post in the new thread . I have forgotten a lot recently short term memory has not been great . Anyway , if I didn't before just to say big thanks to all kinds words support as meant a lot of and showed a lot of decent people do exist . Thank you .
Let's not forget the massive prospects also across 12 identified anticlines each prospected at between 20mbo-400Mbo
South Erin too.
S1 was not even part of those 12 prospects.
The SWP is awash with oil in a nutshell so plenty of scope for a lot more success especially if Percy 1 is a success and frees up a lot of cash.
Not forgetting Suriname and Uruguay to the list too.
Leo's not perfect , neither am I or anyone . He has made mistakes along the way and road map didn't work fully but bad luck too which was out of his control.
However, I still think he did an amazing job the highlight being S1 success and Suriname with his heritage and connections there ( remains to be seen if further success there on what's already know 23mboip)
When you look what he walked in to to where we ended up , it was a far better place that's for sure . Gordon was pivotal in it all. So hope that reassures a little and elays and worries you had about CERP assets . Of course these assets not on the scale if Percy 1 comes in at mid to top end of EST.
So ATB for now in the run up , I only have 1million shares here and looking to derisk a good portion in run up to spud to safeguard somewhat .
This time last year we were excited in the old company about S1 this time round its happening again and chances are very high .....
Good luck everyone. See you no doubt nearer spud poss before if I feel up to it.
Take care , stay safe, stay healthy , and wish you happiness .
Hello,
Thought I would add a post on COS as having had one of many bad nights for recently feeling broken . Have occasionally popped in to read during early hours but only now could I muster up to make a post . Such difficult times . Hoping for success to help mum out as well as others too.
Anyway, COS,
Hello,
Thought I would add a post on COS as having had one of many bad nights for recently feeling broken . Have occasionally popped in to read during early hours but only now could I muster up to make a post . Such difficult times . Hoping for success to help mum out as well as others too.
Anyway, COS- I'm not sure what BPC had previously stated about COS. However, I'm assuming they had said 20-30%?
Normally a deep so called wildcat drill would range in 10-20 bracket.
This drill seems a fair bit different though.
Let's not forget SAFFRON was given a 40% COS but with personal COS from Leo and team was much higher than this. This was mentioned to me in person as well as at the presentation. At the time the excitement was oozing from Leo for good reason. Gordon has said to me also that the area is awash with oil ( if you can he said take a trip out there yourself and you'll see evidence at the surface all over the place .
They also had the CLOVE drill pegged EVEN higher COS. 66% but officially I think there were limits as to how high could be stated.
Now LEO has spent a long time going through the data room at all the seismic and data for Percy1 and stated " I have the exact same feeling about this as I did at Saffron 1. " Leo is no mug , look at how much he has invested here.
Of course let's remember nothing is a given even at Saffron 1 before it was drilled but the COS the confidence was exceptionally high as it is here .
Changing tact slightly, a message from me to the poster who said he was very worried by CERP assets.
Don't be , not only do we have S1 but S2 is imminent .
Also we have Goudron 1.1BOIP tight oil but excellent API and S1 excellent API good enough to go straight in you're petrol tank in Leo's words.
Below Goudron is an ENORMOUS prospect even bigger than Goudron itself far more than 1.1BBO. That might not be so tight. This was decided not to explore at the time due to clearance costs ( forests in Leo's words) because of its location .
Goudron 1.1BBO 3% REC poss more with EOR ongoing WF . CERP17-23 MBO recoverable confirmed so far across our licences to add to the enlarged entity.
11Mbo S1 with still more results to come on more Cruz levels . The drill was so difficult due to instability but Leo oversaw and the team inched their way to success .
S2 to come imminently with free carry in return for share of production until drill costs covered then small royalty thereafter . Was a great deal at the time as we were running out of cash.
We have infills work overs and rejuvenation's across our licences too to bolster future output.
Let's not forget the massive pros
Agree LGO, expect even lower after merger !
If you combine current SPs then I doubt we will see 4.5-5 p after merger , more like 2.5-3p.
They will eventually do rights issues and more 20-1 conversions dilute even more no doubt .
Don't post much these days here or elsewhere for personal matters. Just popped in for a read catch up in amongst the usual childish antics from the trolls of yesteryear .
Most spot on post from Razor I have seen out of everything anywhere for a while
Definitely sold out on the cheap . Npv alone for saffron was 91m. Ax Razor says , look at the amazing renegotiations that we're achieved.
Seems to me impatience , fallings out between management themselves , throw in Schroeders not happy too ,hence bailing early , something happened along the way we will never be privy too. If people couldn't work together then there was no hope . LK and team had turned us around but for me his worst decision yet to sell us out at such a low SP compared to the whole NAV.
Aimho of course
Hi Bamps, for someone not in the oil industry you are one intelligent person.