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Thrown all my 5 figure profits on my bouncing strategy into this share again today at 842p. Set a sell instruction at 1098 as I think more bounces are on the way till the end of the year. Will then invest all gains for the long run home if under 1000p ! (Pie in the sky - £2750 in 2022?).
Good luck davee.
I hope it all works out for you.
Personally I can see this sub 700 as the pandemic roles on.
Trump's promised vaccine in the next couple of weeks will not materialise and the US will had Covid issues well in to next year , and that's CCLs main market.
The UK will also have their spike over the winter .
Both these markets will be extremely lucky to have any summer schedule next year. World cruises just are not going to happen in the next 18 months as countries re-spike across the world.
This will exact a huge financial toll on CCL who will continue to leverage themselves up to the eyeballs and will roll forward more and more FCCs restricting new farepayers for the first year back cruising.
I cannot see anything positive for CCL this side of next year.
Sorry for the pessimism. I think CCL is a great company , but the reality is it will be fighting to recover financially for many years to come.
LOL, good luck Davee. I think your 2750 in 2022 would be too soon. If ever the pie in the sky can be achieved, it would be 2025 at least. 2021 looks like a goner so how is it going to be 2750 in 2022?
One thing that hasn't been considered for the longer term is how structurally cruising will be affected. Similar in the way EV and renewables has done to the oil majors. There is no way back for them. Can cruising grow from 2019 levels with the regulatory issues and environmental issues? If yes, then another question is can the profit grow?
Can't see any short term upside here as we move into annual Flu season.
People will be coughing and sneezing and spluttering with colds, Flu and other viruses as well as COVID. The more fragile members of society will all go running to GPs or A&E wondering if they have Flu or COVID in panic. They just won't know. There will be queues and queues of people wanting to get tested to find out either way. Since no-one will know who has what, everyone will have to assume it's COVID until proved otherwise so people will have to isolate, be turned away from venues, schools, events, pubs, clubs, restaurants, maybe even supermarkets.
Imagine this scenario on-board a ship ! Earlier this year a ship was refused permission to disembark in Italy purely because a passenger on-board had presented with cold like symptoms and because no-one knew if it was a cold or COVID they HAD to assume COVID until tested and proven otherwise. The ship sat there 12 hours before the passenger was cleared and everyone was allowed to disembark by which time the day was over so they stayed overnight and changed the itinerary. But imagine that on a more colossal scale with the usual compliment of 100s of older people full of cold and flu despite having had their flu shots. It would just be a logistical nightmare. You'd have to be testing the entire ship's crew and passenger complement before arriving at every port to properly know who has colds and who has COVID. Each passenger and crew member would have to get "clearance" to go ashore and even then the locals will probably be unhappy if passengers are coughing and sneezing away.
2020 looks to be complete write off and I fully expect 2021 to be the same. There's nothing that is likely to cause the SP here to "bounce" any time soon imo. Stocks like this will imo continue to tank.
Mr Magi SP back up @ 900...what do we know.
LOL
Mr Magic,
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-One sample needed per patient to test for multiple winter viruses
-inclusive of all global SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A, Influenza B and RSV strains
-Kit includes Lyophilised qPCR Master Mix for ambient NO cold chain shipping
Davee
I have been doing the same as you. This is my third bite at the cherry. You did well do get 842; this must have been on the second dip. I bought at the bottom of the first dip and managed 871. Not sure it will rise as much this time - but I would hardly call it bottom feeding - happy to make 10% in a few days. You could obviously take twice as much by shorting on the slides, but that's not for me atm.
TalkingSense Yes its on the way up again, look for 950 today! Having bought at 842 yesterday im holding now for the long run UNLESS it hits 1100 in which case will sell and wait for the next bounce. Its only a plan but it has worked UP TO NOW!
HillSeeker - Glad you have spotted the opportunities here. So much up and down movement on this share with a good balance of news and fundamentals to keep it bouncing along with lots of opportunities to make 20% gains. I am just playing with my gains at the moment and having a bit of fun.
The market is very volatile at the moment and swings of 5 to 10% per day are not unusual for this share, airlines and banks to name but a few.
But nothing fundamental has changed.
COVID cases are increasing throughout Europe and the word 'lockdown' is increasingly being muttered.
None of this points to more cruises happening.
It will be a new normal in the coming months for all service industries including cruising, this will do very well on any glimmer of positive news, more ships are being put back into service as we speak and we will end up having a new normal when cruising. Cruise passengers will jump at the opportunity to go sailing again as I’m sure you have done your homework demand is very strong Indeed. Well done CCL for your continued perseverance at this difficult time.
Alyhels,
Any link to back up the claim that 'demand is very strong indeed' ?
Where will the cruises go exactly given the many quarantines in place and the refusal to enter most ports?
If you look at CCL order book, current cruise capacity demand (Costa, Aida etc ) talking to CCL cruises yet to sail fully booked to include river cruising you will get a good idea order books are full, in fact this lay up probably isn’t a bad thing for consolidation purposes to move on old stock etc, look at the demographics involved this will turn around IMO by spring 2021. Financials factored in forecast for future cruising again IMO the way is up the best bit of news CCL shared was the fact Cunard & P&O to restart in Spring 2021 needed time period to logistically get the fleet ready , it would seem you need to educate yourself dealing with this share !
You missed the bit about where the cruises will actually go? Like in the Med for example.
No No nothing missed logic will inform you they will g to countries opening up in the future lets not be silly about this !!
I am aware of the fundamentals but prefer to follow more basic instincts its far more fun! Buy when all others are bailing out and sell when everyone is jumping in. Set optimistic buying and selling prices and catch the spikes eg 842 yesterday (limit price was 850).
This has potential to spike further when USA wakes up, just loaded another £10k Worth to complete a 5 year investment plan.
Timing for buying & selling is everything....fair play to you daveee
Alyhels, Your post "IMO the way is up the best bit of news CCL shared was the fact Cunard & P&O to restart in Spring 2021" should include the caveat "this is the current plan".
Uncertain times and plans change.....I hope they do get going though as my parents have some lovely FCC they have booked to use in June.
It is quite clear that is the current plan as advertised !! No need to reiterate this well of course unless like your good self difficulties in understanding! FCC not much use better with a refund and re-book when ready but good luck to your parents and I do hope that get underway sooner rather than later !
Something else hot off the press and even better than testing - Accelerated vaccine testing using Human Challenge Studies to commence in Jan
https://www.ft.com/content/b782f666-6847-4487-986c-56d3f5e46c0b
https://www.ft.com/content/b782f666-6847-4487-986c-56d3f5e46c0b
All over the internet now, the significance here is that it will accelerate the proving of all the major vaccines through deliberately infecting volunteers with coronavirus in a controlled environment , hence proving whether the vaccine works within a month of running the study. Should be a huge boost to the whole travel industry
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/irish-company-to-test-vaccines-on-volunteers-deliberately-infected-with-covid-19-1.4362506
All in all a very balanced day on this share. We are unaware of unforeseen situations but CCL are being proactive and IMO of course this will recover very well as we learn more about this Virus and also how to cope with it. The show must go on.
covid spike protein bristol university
Worth a read
Very promising indeed https://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2020/september/spike-protein.html