Ryan has an impressive balance sheet and the bailouts given to state airlines are clearly unfair. However, I am surprised at the lack of appetite for foreign travel. The general public appears to be sh/t scared of the virus and don't want to travel. On a Mallorca cycle board, UK tourists are cancelling OCTOBER trips as they are too afraid. Crazy but that's how brainwashed people have become.
RE: Mood change in market on the pandemic13 May 2020 12:01
Even if you are correct, the mood is one of fear and uncertainty. Some people I know are extremely scared of the virus and won't go out. And governments cannot be seen to be taking risks so maintain lockdowns that may well be unnecessary. Until the panic and fear subsides, life is't going back to normal.
In Spain, there is much support for stopping 'foreigners' arriving, even though it is the lifeblood of their economy. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. But people are so scared of COVID that they would rather be destitute than catch it.
RE: Bernie as doug has been reminding us05 May 2020 09:51
Imagine company A is presenting itself as all good at 100p per share. Joe punter looks at it and thinks, I fancy a bit of this, looks OK to me. But a hedge fund has spotted accounting discrepancies that appear troublesome and so shorts the stock. The share price goes down, Joe punter thinks again. Is that such a bad thing? If the company really is OK, then market forces will take the share price back up to where it 'should' be.
RE: Bernie as doug has been reminding us04 May 2020 15:26
By buying the shares you are effectively saying 'I think these are undervalued and I hope it goes up'. By shorting the shares you are effectively saying 'I think these are overvalued and I hope it goes down'. Perhaps you think Ryanair are undervalued compared to Easyjet. So you buy Ryan, short Easyjet, as a spread. That means you are well protected against general rises or falls in the market but can still benefit from your idea. I see it as an entirely healthy process, although yes it is dangerous, more so than going long in my opinion. Look at a stock like Tesla. Totally overvalued. Dumb public that know nothing about the company are piling in because their mates are. Which creates a bubble. Which is as 'wrong' as shorting is. Shorting that stock will help bring it back to reality.
Went short this morning, as the outlook is not looking good. Easyjet etc. collapse, but Ryan remains strangely supported. Make some beer money and decide to call it quits, then RYA dips another 2%. Oh well.
It's done this at least 3 times in the last week or two.
RE: well the MP`s over there say a lot over there.02 May 2020 17:13
Yeah, but like it or not, the MPs are ones in charge, and they cannot be seen to be allowign people to die. It's a face saving and back covering exercise. None of them wants to be dragged before some court of human rights. And of course, those countries you mention are in the **** and having to pay huge bills, but they tend to be very socialist countries and therefore used to paying a lot in tax.
RE: Tourism in Europe not looking good02 May 2020 13:33
Critique all you like, but there were some interesting quotes in there from European PMs stating that no one is traveling on holiday to or from their countries any time soon. I'm sure the Guardian would be happy to consider your CV ....:)
RE: Bernie ,that`s not quite how it works..01 May 2020 15:42
Of course they start to sell seats cheap, then become more expensive as the plane fills up. But load factor is a key metric in valuing an airline's performance, and one of Ryan's key strengths has been how high their LF is. If they start selling cheap tickets, but the plane is still only half full, how can they then increase prices as before? I would say that being 1/3 down on passengers (which sounds optimistic to me, especially as he is talking about closing smaller airport operations) would translate to far more than 1/3 loss of profits. Planes that are 66% full are flying at a loss. It is crucial for Ryan to fill their planes. And again, I would agree that I would rather hold Ryan than Easy or BA, but that's like saying I would rather hold a dog turd that a cat turd.
Awfully good points! Agree fully. How can Ryan be valued at the same as it as last summer when it was in full swing? The national airlines are not going away and they know they have to compete with Ryan, and many do so (did so) quite well. And a very good point that Ryan works because it fills it's planes to the brim. 70% just doesn't cut it for them. SO how will they manage that now? As for vaccine, even if one is discovered tomorrow, it won't be in action until next year at the earliest. The best hope is a >90% effective antibody test to allow people to prove they can fly internationally.