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Anything at these levels is a buy for me...comms crap...but CASP are printing money and will be paying dividends this year...news on divis and this goes back into the 20s IMO
Morning Badgernator
I'm a very long term holder, and despite consistently poor communication from the Company (especially around the timing of the inaugural dividend payment) I'm still of the view that there's a significant disconnect between their Market Cap and the value of the assets that they own. There's a strong possibility that they'll be the highest yielding stock in the AIM, or even the FTSE this year... and that will attract a lot of attention... especially during these times of high inflation. With my optimistic hat on, I can visualise a return to a more normalised P/E ratio of 7 or 8:1 when the dividends are on tap, and that signals a return to 20p+ per share. At that point I'll be hanging my 'investing boots' up somewhere very warm and sunny ;-)...
To get into the 20's we'll need a deep flowing first and the risk of our oil not being shut-in removed with either a new route to the export market or the easier option of Putin gone/ sanctions lifted, a new export route and any of our 2 deep structures flowing continuously will do it.
I said last year 2023 will be the year for CASP - re share price increasing with deeps flowing. If oil is constrained at 5k bopd then they'll have to concentrate on the deeps firming up P/C Reserves/ OIP - new CPR........then offers?
Get the A5-A7/802 flowing and we'll be on our way to 20p+ - as we know a massive challenge.
Dividend/ shallows 10p+ is to be expected under normal circumstances , but the market is all about the pipeline risk and nothing else - which is why we're at 3p.
Thanks for the reply tyrannosaurus, I was wondering because I too bought some more. The comms to us pi’s is terrible because the major players don’t care about the current sp or our opinions. They have let the sp slide and create uncertainty but Caspian must be making good money. At some point Kuat and co will want a pay day. That was my reasoning. Eventually, as we’ve been saying for years, they will want sp appreciation.
Somm,
Much that i'd like to see 20p if high yield divi payments start becoming a regular feature, obviously becoming less high yield as share price goes up.
Yep, to get back to 20ps we will need a deep, the divis and continued success on the shallows. 802 allegedly our best chance as a previous Soviet era well in close promiximity to 802 suffered a blow out so oil/gas/water entered the well bore as a result of high pressure. Yet again Casper will be having to drill in over balanced mode using heavier muds to manage the pressure.
They'll head off to A5 after 802 so if we got lucky with 802, that would inject some hype and blue sky as peeps start talking about the A block opportunity. A5 has flowed oil and as i see it, that's our best COS from wells drilled to date and Airshagyl is the asset with the most value attributed to it but we'll need to do another CPR if successful.
If they get 2 deeps flowing, this company is getting sold and that's when KO/WCP get their payday and we'll be hanging onto their shirt tails.
Re pipeline risk, that has hugely diminished following the Chinese comments. Putin will face Chinese resistance if trying to close down CPC again. I believe that risk has gone yet the sp is still on it's arze.
SP disconnected from asset value and at some juncture the market will wake up but an 802 success will be the start of the real transformation.
802 drilled near to Soviet era blow out...don't be surprised if a deep comes in now the concert party have maximised their holdings....shallow well production shot up after the debt for equity deal was concluded. I am reading between the lines here as as per usual pis are kept in the dark. They are in my opinion artificially extended the period between the debt for equity deal and a significant discovery to avoid regulatory scrutiny...all IMO of course :)
So glad that's just in 'your' opinion Jack, to think the heat/ pressure/ deeps not flowing will all come good now the debt for equity has been concluded and holdings maximized, geez what ever next!
KK,
If you think the risk has gone to the pipeline being shut-in (because of recent Chinese comments) then that's just complete nonsense, the risk is still very much there and is exactly why the share price is on it's arze (but you don't get why?). If the risk has completely gone then why are we at 3p?
Production has nearly trebled/ no debt/ dividend about to be announced/ 2-3 wells currently drilling blah blah and you don't think the share price is at 3p, because of the pipeline risk: Then why is it at 3p after dropping 40% from the Russian court order and still dropping, especially with several operational announcements due.
BTW. It will take years to complete a new pipeline to China.
802 not drilled through the same structure as the other deeps...so possible they won't encounter the same drilling issues. Pointless posting anything positive with the SP languishing at 3p...forget pipeline shut ins etc. they were costed in at 5p+...current SP totally due inaccurate comms from CC. Until they start filling their pockets with dividends or telling an element of truth we'll be down here for a while unfortunately
Somm,
We're at 3p as PIs have sold down since Casper announced that only 2 wells planned in H2 and putting a ceiling on prod capacity pf 5000 bopd whereas many investors were hoping to see many more wells and far higher revenue numbers to fund 'meaningful' divis. Also delay in 141 result and no divi declaration added to the sp retrace. The sp was 5.4p in June on anticipation of further good news and the lack of it has seen sp retrace. The price was 5.4p after initial pipeline closures but yes i agree it's a factor BUT less so following Chinese intervention. I suppose we'll see over the next few months whether any more threats come from our Mr P but China are a big influence and looking to strengthen their trade relationship with Kaz, great news for Tokayev.
JD,
Agree re poor comms and lack of a more aggressive shallow operational schedule to max revenues. It must be to do with the no of horizontals they can drill on the field. Easier to manage than wells and definitely less costly.
Re , Sinopec drilled the well to TD without issue and if my memory serves me correctly, their job was to take it to TD and then Caspian got involved to save costs ! there lies the problem and we'll find out whether they continue to be the problem on . Shin wasn't involved with 801 so maybe a better chance although A8 was a failure but that was due to non commerciality as opposed to operational **** ups.
£70m m/cap for a company able to generate 5000 bopd (hopefully soon) at the highest Crude prices for 8 years and will continue to do so for the next 15-20 years. Those maths don't add up and the cash generation will buld cash and give them options to add assets or diversify. I'd rather be solvent and cash generative whereas many AIM cos are hyped to death with little fundamental value.
It's a slow penny but it will drop.