Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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That is troubling me too Analysister. In a sense it would be preferable if this rogue Finance Director had opened a Swiss bank account, bought fast cars, enjoyed exotic holidays and even more exotic call girls. He didn't so much nick the cash as cover up the fact that the company wasn't as profitable as thought. His only benefit as far as I can see is prestige and a few bob from exercised executive share options. So your point about the viability of the model is totally valid. The converse is that the new investors aren't dumb and must have done due diligence before agreeing to support this - 50p obviously seems cheap to PLs whose shares were 'worth' north of 400p a few weeks back, but they aren't a bargain at any price if the company is worthless.
Fundamentally the Board still have to convince themselves that the PV business model is sustainable. With the shenanigans of £28m of cash really being a £10m overdraft I have my own doubts as to whether the model works.
Ha ha but right. They need to be fresh, crisp. You go into Costa and there are a few cakes, some of which are nice (such as Tiffin, which they knock out at about £2,50). All Costa cakes are a) overpriced for what they are (they did sell individual Lindt balls at 50p each at one time!) b) nice(ish) but obviously factory produced. There is definitely a market for something classier and away from the unwashed hoards (sorry if that sounded snobby!). The fact that PV is not a household name is in a way an advantage because it has a more 'one off' feel at the moment rather than being a chain (which realistically it is).
I haven't yet tried anything other than a coffee at PV, but may go to another branch, Shrewsbury, and have something to munch.
Sorry if I'm sounding like a (very) poor mans Jamie Oliver here but if I'm going to put, say, 5 or 10k into this I want to see what the offering is. £20 on a few coffees may save a more expensive mistake later on. I usually invest in minerals or oil companies and its not so easy to visit their operations!
Agreed I’m no chef but I suspect they wouldn’t sell too many 2nd day cream buns!
Personally I hope not despite the waste (in revenue, not of food which I hope would be responsibly distributed).
There are competitors on the High Street, Costa, Starbucks, Café Nero etc. I used to enjoy going to them, it was an event, it felt sophisticated almost. But now they feel more like downmarket cafes. I definitely think there is a market for a more niche product. Don't swamp the market, 10% (say) more expensive, quality more like independent 'artisans'. In other words more of what I have already seen during my market research! So no putting the cakes in fridges! overnight!
Goes back in the fridge till it finally gets sold. With the level of preservatives etc that goes in to these kind of mass production products, these things last forever.
I wonder what they do with the unsold cakes? Hopefully they have teamed up with homeless/local poverty/food bank charities etc to distribute the food as I don’t think it can be stored for resale? Maybe it can, dunno.
I went to the stand alone café in Solihull on Sunday afternoon (late) and the 'in Debenhams' one in Telford yesterday. Both seemed clean and well run by enthusiastic staff and had good footfall.
The Solihull one was (as the young would say) 'lush', fantastic range of French patisserie style cakes. Probably a bit more expensive than Costa but then again that is not such a bad thing as it was more up market. No litter or screaming kids. Was impressed, only downside I could see was that it was nearly closing time and there seemed an awful lot of expensive cakes and savouries (£3+) remaining, which would need to be binned to retain a quality image.
The Debenhams one was far more basic, little variety on offer, but again nice staff and clean. Like the fact that newspapers were available at both locations, something I look for when I am out.
Not too concerned about the small number of ones in Debenhams, if that one is typical they are on a smaller scale so if some Debenhams shops close I cant see it being a huge loss. There are plenty of small retail units in shopping malls, presumably at good rents, so probably any loss of such outlets could be replaced.
I saw comment somewhere that the shares are expected to re list at around 60p - clearly that is pure guesswork but seems plausible. Have read the background to the Chairman (Luke somebody, yes I know he isn't flavour of the month at the moment amongst PIs) and he is undoubtedly a clever man. With him taking a more active role, which is likely given his investment here, and the continued love of consumers for coffee shops, I do see this as a good bet.
Well it tends to be only in very specific circumstances which tend to benefit only a small proportion of shareholders.<br /><br />With Tesco it was those who bought shares after the dodgy accounts were public and still held them once the announcement they were dodgy was released ~2 years later. In reality institutions and traders did not hold (many) for that long and number of PI that bought in that period and held were relatively small.<br /><br />With this mess who knows. Depends on how far back this fraud goes and what it was. We still do not know what the real numbers are nor when they have been wrong since.
I think there is a logic of sorts from the point of view of the affected Shareholders. They are securing a higher share of the companies assets for themselves in the form of compensation. I agree that in this case this may not be helpful or even fatal.
Such cases do happen.
Sorry there is no magic money pot in cases like this the normal caveat applies - The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invested. An investment’s past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
I don't understand, and never have, seen the logic of equity investors suing the company that they own for compensation. Surely any compensation would have to be applied equally across all equity holders. They are effectively suing themselves, any compensation payments would reduce the net asset value of the company and hence the value of the shares that they hold pro rata. Yes if they can sue fraudulent directors for compensation out of their own independent (ie non company) wealth for fraudulent deeds while in office.
Can you explain?
I think the company is going to be on the hook for tens of millions in compensation to PI s.
On the plus side i think all the recent publicity has probably boosted sales as they say there is no such thing as bad publicity.
goinglarge,
I think we all missed an opportunity to throw some cakes at them !
You are kidding! The auditors of Carillion haven't exactly been censured over their incompetent (corrupt?) signing off the accounts of a huge bankrupt multinational company for several years in a row - despite them employing several thousands of people on important governmental infrastructure projects. So I hardly think the situation here will cause auditors sleepless nights although it undoubtedly should.
Indeed a very sad situation, unfortunately similar to several I have seen over the decades. Always the small investor who gets shafted while others, including the Directors (who must al be culpable to a greater or lesser extent through negligence and/or incompetence if nothing else), get away fairly lightly.
The only thing you can be is philosophic - the business is still running and on a sounder financial footing now. It is not the sort of business that will suffer from lack of consumer confidence over this and go into a death spiral - unlike a troubled airline which no one dares book with once problems arise. You sell coffee and nice cakes, if the shops have them in the window the consumers will buy as before. Your chairman, who whether you like him or not at the moment has a previously good record, will now focus his attention on this business. that has to be good news.
When is it expected to re list? I do think this could be a reasonable investment going forward.
Nope I didn’t but I passed a PatVal cafe in central London and it was very colourful and very busy :))
Did anyone go to the meeting today? Was Paul May and Luke Johnson wearing masks? Did anyone ask Paul May (who knew nothing about the accounting scandal) why he sold so many shares just before the story broke? So many unanswered questions
Would like to think we will get an audited restated set of accounts (not by GT!) with the relist, otherwise as you say nobody knows what they are investing in.
private investors should stay calm and wait....and seek out a private legal position against being misled by false accounting..
What can happen is that once a date of when the accounts become known to have been issued "falsely" ..then from that date anyone buying shares can make a claim aganist the company or maybe the auditors
Need to sit tight until the full forensic account probe is complete and see if a lawyer in the field starts advertising for clients to represent
Slow and long process but..... someone needs to be accountable
Similar happened with Tesco
Very unfortunate series of events
I certainly cannot see the logic of averaging down as soon as trading resumes, simply because no one knows just how profitable or not this company is. There could be lots more bad news to come.
Luckily I sold out most of my shares a few months ago because of risk of closure with their Debenhams concessions. The remainder I will just hold and may add after next years results.
It IS disgusting that the institutions are baling out Johnson (from his 'loan' except for £5m) by acquiring cheap shares that steal value from private investors. Johnson is to blame, yet he scuttles away ! 'Serial Entrepreneurs' - no matter how righteously they lecture others - (or maybe because they do) - always turn out the same. The fact is that Johnson made his money through that easiest of processes - 'rolling out' a consumer product (Pizza Express) during a period when said 'product' happened to be going through a phase of increasing appeal. Its when the appeal fades that the formula (always) implodes, and the 'entrepreneur' scuttles away.
Agreed.
If you believe the company was hours away from being bankrupt you can hardly be surprised it was an accelerated book build with institutional investors only for the placing.
If you wish to average down i expect you will get your opportunity very soon. A significant number of those institutions will sell at any price above 50p and take the profit so the price will get to the 50p-55p level very quickly if not instantly.
There is another article in yesterday's Private Eye about Patisserie Valerie - good reading for £2 if you have a financial interest here. It is not complimentary...
I don't own shares, but i would take a long term punt, but if i was a long term holder, i would buy as many as possible to average down the price, The only issue, more bad news will come pending legal outcomes and court cases