No ! Mr not very cunning Fox.
"I'm a contractor owed £105,000. I know I'm not going to get paid. So kind Mr Kibo says "Just bump up your invoice (but don't disclose how much it is) to £142,000, and we'll give you shares at .0135p (because we're not allowed to issue at less than par value) which you can then sell at 1p on June 24th - and hey presto - you get your £105,000 ! - Oh Excuse me a moment. I got that tip from my kind friend Mr Sanderson, so now off to give him his weekly k-ss up his ar--e"
Clappies should look at ORCP's results statement today. Potentially 4 times bigger than MCPP It's always been more open and honest than LC (not difficult admittedly) re the financial hurdles still ahead and the risks. Note its broker's willingness to help it along. Can't say that for Kibo's lot ! (hardly surprising)
For all those wanting my calcs, reasons why Kibo will never command anything like 10p, etc, I've posted innumerable calculations, explanations, etc on here and on the 'proper research' elsewhere going back years, for all the ctp companies now and again. I don't have time to repeat all again. As I admit, its a complicated subject even for 'analysts' not experienced in 'projects' which are separate from the 'sponsoring' or 'owning' company as is the case for Kibo. Hence why so easy to demolish eg Doh!fort's absurd calculations, and others similar like First Equity. I suggest you go back through all my past posts on here and on the other place (posted there because more space for explanations and not subject to deletion by clappies who can't bear to have their fantasies knocked on the head)
eg one post here Feb 1st and 16 Aug last year, but many more.
I've previously posted that had MCPP gone ahead, going on its Jan 2017 IBFS, and without any other projects, and if no more shares in issue than the present, Kibo might have justified a 10-12p share price (But only in 5-6 years time when (if) MCPP pays Kibo a dividend and if Kibo passes it all on to shareholders). BUT without any income for the next 5 years (Med is small beer) lots more shares are going to have to be issued to keep LC's salary going and the lights on, quite apart from those to raise funds to develop any other projects. So my revised guess was that MCPP alone might have justified 5p per share IN 5-6 years time.
BUT, another BUT, we now have no MCPP, and only Moz and Bots (who together will generate about the same as MCPP would have done) and starting with shares now in issue more than 3 times those when MCPP (by itself) might have looked attractive for Kibo shareholders.
Allowing for even more shares needed for Kibo to earn a decent share of those projects (who is paying for their feasibility studies ? - maybe we'll find out in the forthcoming annual report) I can't see an eventual value higher than 5p. What with Kibo's reputation, who in their right mind would pay anything more than at present for such a prospect so far in the future ? Meanwhile, if LC continues to disappoint (I repeat, Med is too small to help or to match LC's fantasies for it) it might be unable l to raise any more cash to keep going, and would go bust. Others would pick up the Moz, Bots, and MCPP pieces for a song.
BB - Beware thinking its a rock bottom ! - Just as likely to be a ledge on the way further down. LC is in a hole, lacking any ability to fund his larger projects without drastic share dilution which will put a lid on any upside. 10p is completely impossible even if all his projects go ahead.
Happy to set you straight Mr Wag. Yes, its encouraging that (some ?) Mast projects might come with no equity funding required up front, and all financed by debt, so a straight 'profit' to Kibo. But 13-16% irr is not particularly high, so a big proportion of that return will go to pay off the debt and interest. In other words Kibo won't get a lot out of it - not until debt is paid off anyway. Even with a 30% equity contribution by Kibo, I estimated (from UK Power Reserve figures) that at least five 20MW plants would be needed just to pay Kibo's overheads, let alone (as LC implies, but on the figures is fantasy) contribute to development costs for its other projects ! So Mast is all small beer in the great scheme of LC's expansion plans ! It still means that the only great expansion will be in numbers of Kibo shares, LC's office furniture, and his salary, and NOT in the price of the shares. When you see him, demand to know from LC why he isn't buying any shares himself ! There can ony be one answer.
- the only smoke LC ever delivers. Laughable 'detail' about coal ash etc. Otherwise no solid info at all. 'term sheet' PPA for 40% of the output is meaningless without 100% being assured, otherwise the economics (and the project) won't work. No clarity even about the size of the plant. By the time the slow wheel of the heavens brings Benga stars into alignment, Kibo's issued shares will have rocketed beyond them, and swallowed up its already small profit contribution. Only a tiny, silly, spike on a silly bit of 'non-news' ! Maybe the clappies are learning
'Intangibles' are just that.Nt capable of raising any cash. 'Sunk' costs have gone under the bridge lost for ever. Property and plant relates to Yanfolila, and will be depreciated down to zero at end of its life. None of those items are as 'real' as the liquid assets and liabilities that will determine whether Hum goes bust or not. It won't be able to sell the plant, or the 'intangibles'. Experienced investors look at future cash less liabilities, which for Hum equate roughly to the current market cap. They will also worry about future spending which at Dugbe will be large, with much lower profitability than Yanfolila over its limited future life. To extend that will take more spending. Its quite possible HUM will need some large capital raises or loans to progress both those. Its why investors have been cautious now for nearly two years.
sorry ctw - Net assets includes £211m of intangibles and 'sunk' costs. What counts is liquid assets - which are now a negative $89.8m - $ 28.7m worse than last year. Even if the target prodn is met for next three years, cash inflow won't top $150m - after which will be unknown cost of developing Dugbe or extending Yanfolila. These figs are very rough, but Its that forward picture that sank the shares last year and made a nonsense of the broker puffs that took them to the high 30's (Why do you suppose the original backers sold out then ?) Present market cap reflects all that and is probably about right.