Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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It can pay you to keep looking at the potential winning settlement figures from burfords YPF case, no matter which settlement figure that comes through, the value of these shares will lift significantly, also Argentina will have to pay up in some form or another if it wants unfettered access to American markets in goods and services and especially the multibillion dollar loans markets. If they don't burford will crucify them through the courts until they settle our potential judgements. No matter what Argentina will ultimately have to pay up with sovereign bonds / debt,
Good post Accomp, very informative.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SebastianMaril/status/1515292007882981376?s=20&t=5hJZ_KPW5VnIqoSqdfpoyQ
Burford has looked at it expected outcomes from the cases in progress (excluding YPF/Eton Park) and anticipates gains of $2.2bn. Their are unrealised gains already recognised in Burford balance sheet of $890m of which is mostly the $727m on YPF, these together with some consolidated third party interests not part of Burford itself comprise the $1.3bn.
The $2.2bn gain at 137% of costs committed is strong but expected given large cases underway for results will be boosted by covid delays. The management must have high confidence in this disclosure.
Prospects look very good, and with a good YPF settlement would be brilliant.
Good entry point Da_Master , and already in profit, I also just topped up at similar prices,
The burford reports can be very complex and confusing, though seemingly it's what investors have pushed burford for, and after the muddy waters fiasco. everything is put out there for all to see to dispel any notion of hidden risk or accounting cover-ups.
Fair value I think is a very basic accounting standard, to mark burfords valuations of its value on it's existing litigation cases to a very basic accounting price, but which can rise if the underlying case looks like it can be worth more at any given time during its lifespan, example = YPF case gets heard in a american court and not a Argentina court, that increases the value of the claim , and the amount burford can then sell parts of the claim onto other 3rd parties/ institutions.
Fair value can quite often be aligned to the initial cost of the case itself.
Burfords "Model" is them looking at the average returns from historical court case returns, so if that model is applied to the deployment money in our current court cases then the returns over a 3 year time frame would be around $2.2 billion
So basically Burford can keep to a basic accounting standard $1.3 billion and fair value and yet still inform shareholders that it can return profits of around $2.2 billion from it's deployment money, as that is what it historically achieves from those amounts of monetary deployments. and somewhere inbetween Lies the truth.
The market watchers want burford to give a low very basic accounting to its valuations of cases on its books, that seems fair enough and in that accounting conundrum lies a hidden value in burfords valuation and share price.
I hope that helps a little , also I'm happy to be corrected on anything at all in the above.
Yep, I decided to pull the trigger at 607.5p so think I've got a good entry. Still concerned about the fair value in FY21 note 6 (£1.3B) vs the model (£2.2B) though. Can anyone resolve this headscratcher as it's quite a difference?
whilst I wholeheartedly agree with those valuations (in fact they've very conservative), do these analysts attach some sort of timeframe to these price targets? Burford will hit £30 - of that i've no doubt, but it could be 3 years before we're at that level. Does this later rating assume "within the next 12 months" or something?
A big 6 months to come - YPF and interims will be great viewing. I hope your bases are loaded...
Yes $15 dollars around £12 Stirling , + add in another £6 if you believe burford collects a" low" settlement offer from our YPF case near certain win , so that's at least a share price of around £18 Stirling,
What does burford need to do to give us that £18 Stirling Share price , to just deliver on its business model deployment money forcast, and that would only be out by a tiny margin.
The current share price is the equivalent of finding a lost lottery ticket to any newly buying burford investors. Hold and wait for the big return. Potentially at least triple your money.
Apologies if posted before....
"B. Riley Initiates Burford Capital at Buy with $15 Price Target, Believes Earnings Set to Rebound from Acceleration in Realizations, Record Pace of New Business"
That'll do me in the short term!