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Sounds like he confirmed mainly what’s out there and giving the companies time to extract equipment. Positive though is govt will encourage new doesnt verified suppliers with incentives to do so, which may mean the replacement may be cheaper than the alternative current replacement costs, if not using Huawei. But fleccy and below are the experts in this field for their translation of Dowden speech
Dowden speaking now
"So from from what you say Fleccy, and I have no reason to doubt you. Once 5G and the Fibre build is complete, BT should start and return to being a cash cow once again? That should lead to a recovery in the depressed share price. Fingers crossed."
Yes that's my opinion. You'll still get faults and better Equipment will supersede outdated Equipment and even the Fibre in the ground wont last a hundred years, so maintenance will be required, but from a network hierarchy perspective i don't see a full generational upgrade cycle, like the FDM to PDH to SDH up to the current FTTP/Cloud/DWDM upgrade cycles. Everything will soon be cloud based with core router switches interconnected via DWDM and i honestly don't see where they can go from there, apart from speed and Equipment improvement.
I expect innovation in IOT and network security going forward and their may be some mileage in low orbit specialised satellite arrays, but i'd see that more aimed at low latency applications like stock market transactions using algo's and HFT.
I've read about research into "twisted light communication" for secure and/or faster transmission through Fibre and also possibly Wireless applications. I don't see twisted light making a great deal of difference overall and scientists still think that communication using quantum entanglement isn't feasible.
Thx allybally.
Good start today in so in anticipation. Hopefully no bad shocks that cost bt a small fortune. Although feels mkt has discounted in price disappointment, so maybe upside still this afternoon
Fleccy ........."I would expect that the current upgrade cycles to 5G and FTTP will be the last generational upgrade for the next hundred years, as i can't see where they can upgrade after this. On the 5G side, they can add more cells and possibly more wavelengths, but 5G has enough built in capacity to deal with any mobile scenario. 6G is just an extension of 5G and will be for crowded venues, like stadiums, shopping centres and train stations. FTTP allows Terrabit bandwidths, so no clear upgrade path to replace Fibre using our current knowledge of Physics."
So from from what you say Fleccy, and I have no reason to doubt you. Once 5G and the Fibre build is complete, BT should start and return to being a cash cow once again? That should lead to a recovery in the depressed share price. Fingers crossed.
Dowding might not be on until 1230
Ministerial Statement on UK Telecommunications listed as second on daily list which is scheduled to start at 1130am
Does Anyone know time the govt statement on Huawei is announced tomorrow?
That's where this SOGEA product comes in. A fibre only line so dies away with the exchange batteries. One step closer to switching the exchange off so to speak.
Well system x and axe 10 exchanges which are both about 30 years old are still in service. They are both well passed their sell by dates but with mobile carrying the majority of call traffic I don't know if it really matters. BT were going to put all the calls down the internet at one time but the software failed and it was abandoned .
"He said, which surprised me, that most equiptment only has a working life of 7 to 10 years anyway before needing replacement
Interview might be on BBC Sounds"
I worked in Engineering roles in Telecoms, but never really noticed what the refresh cycle was for various Equipment's. Outdoor Equipment mounted in cabinets and on masts, that are exposed to various heat and cold cycles wont last as long as Equipment installed in clean air conditioned rooms. Some Equipment will just get superseded by better more advanced Equipment as required.
I would expect that the current upgrade cycles to 5G and FTTP will be the last generational upgrade for the next hundred years, as i can't see where they can upgrade after this. On the 5G side, they can add more cells and possibly more wavelengths, but 5G has enough built in capacity to deal with any mobile scenario. 6G is just an extension of 5G and will be for crowded venues, like stadiums, shopping centres and train stations. FTTP allows Terrabit bandwidths, so no clear upgrade path to replace Fibre using our current knowledge of Physics.
CEO Jansen was interviewed on R4 Today Programme this morning
He said, which surprised me, that most equiptment only has a working life of 7 to 10 years anyway before needing replacement
Interview might be on BBC Sounds, i don't know
Was about 10 minutes long......
M
Clarification from CEO.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53388805
The over regulation, health and safety work place standards and relatively high wages does not make Britain an attractive manufacturing base for any company. The fact we dont have access to the eu market now has made that position even worse. Makes far more sense to manufacture in foreign sweatshops with little or no regulation low wages and a workforce with low expectations. We do still produce a lot of our own food but can't even get our people to harvest it such is the attitude to that kind of work. We are caught in a bubble of our own making where seeking out pleasure trumps all.
It appears that the UK's open market policy, along with it's easy touch stock market regulation , allows UK companies to be pummelled to low levels and subsequently bought on the cheap by foreign companies. Any innovative companies are taken over before they can flourish independently and business moved abroad. What we're left with is retail, hospitality and service jobs. Basically things like utilities, Law Firms, Accountants, telecoms, hotels, shops and private healthcare remain, but our manufacturing is a shadow of its former self. I keep hearing about the UK's productivity being low, but how can you be productive if you produce little?
It appears that successive Governments have allowed manufacturing to leak away, probably because it's cheaper to produce elsewhere, time will tell if this is sensible, probably not.
I would think that now is a good time to re-balance the UK economy, but the previous good manufacturing jobs have gone forever. New industries could develop under the right conditions, but will need to be automated and wont create vast numbers of jobs. The new industries, like 3D Printing, self driving electric vehicles, Green technologies, etc, etc all need to be built in the UK, otherwise the UK's productivity will remain bad and we'll be at the mercy of the producer countries. Personally, i think now is an excellent time to compliment our service sector with quality manufacturing sectors, otherwise we'll just keep declining imo.
Germany are huge in manufacturing, but need to automate more, which will mean less jobs going forward. Softbank was allowed to take over ARM Holdings, one of the more recent examples of foreign entities taking over an innovative UK company. How lucky are we to have such a progressive open market philosophy? Where all the good jobs go abroad and our kids can work at McDonalds !!!
I must have missed the lollipops.
Why does not Government invest properly this way instead of giving out Lolipops! Then they would be credible with our money!
Britain did have a Huawei .... it was called Marconi
Excellent work Velo, as always, thank you for your contribution that I'm sure is appreciated by most, if not by all.
Well done Velo. It’s about time those who use this board are given the chance to understand how BT has been hindered over the last 40 years. The company is now in a position to redress this and in a very few years it will have the capacity to offer world class products and services. As others have stated many times with full fibre BT will be raking it in with very little ongoing costs.
For those who think your posts last night are a waste of there time, well good, because they are increasingly wasting our time.........
Velo
You must spend hours on end constructing these endless streams of nonsense. Remember the chapters of drivel you wrote confirming that BT would sustain a potential 15 percent dividend?
When Any Fool could have told you it was unsustainable.
I’ve wiped the floor with you on this board. Predicted in one sentence what you couldn’t predict in a book. I find it hard to comprehend how someone so apparently guileless can trade shares. Or at least trade to make a profit.
Don’t give up the day job.
You’re proof that however hard people try, you can’t turn a pigs ear into a silk purse.
And a sad reminder that people bereft of talent never go anywhere.
Toff
A lot of posts. A lot of long posts; hence posting it all late at night so as not to hold up the board.
For any experienced Telecoms engineers out there who may pick up that these are old articles and are not up to date, bare in mind they are a reply to a poster asking why don't BT make their own 5G?
These postings were/are for anyone who asks similar and not those who deal in diodes and capacitors or whatever, on a daily basis.
We could have fared better; it was written years ago. Hindsight is a wonderful tool, but that 1970's BT telecoms chief didn't need it - he had vision, but instead of being cherished he was ignored - by politicians - who apparently always know best.
(Concludes Part 3 of 3) -
. . . Together the two men looked at the giant cash pile salted away by their predecessor – and set about spending it, and then some.
They sold the old businesses and bought shiny new ones; they flogged off dowdy and snapped up exciting. In just one financial year, 1999-2000, they bought no fewer than 15 companies, from America to Australia. Suddenly, GEC – or Marconi, as the rump was rebranded – was beloved by the bankers, who marvelled at the commissions coming their way, and the reporters, who had headlines to write.
Then came the dotcom bust, and the new purchases went south. A company that had been trading at £12.50 a share was now worth only four pence a pop. IN THE MID-2000s, MARCONI'S MOST VITAL CLIENT, BT, PASSED IT OVER FOR A CONTRACT THAT WENT INSTEAD TO … HUAWEI. Weinstock didn’t live to see the death of his beloved firm but among his last reported remarks was: “I’d like to string [Simpson and Mayo] up from a high tree and let them swing there for a long time.”
This is not a story about genius versus idiocy, let alone good against evil.
Weinstock was not quite as dull as made out, nor did he avoid all errors. But it is one of the most important episodes in recent British history – because it highlights the clash between two business cultures. On the one hand is Weinstock, building an institution over decades; on the other is the frenetic wheeler-dealing of Simpson and Mayo, mesmerised by quarterly figures and handing shareholders a fast buck. The road GEC took is the one also taken by ICI and other household names. It is also the one opted for by Britain as a whole, whose political class decided it cared neither who owned our industrial giants or venerable banks or Fleet Street newspapers, nor what they did with them. That is why our capitalism is today dominated by unsavoury, get-rich-quick merchants in the Philip Green mould.
Firms such as GEC and ICI used to invest heavily in research and development, notes Sheffield University’s pro-vice-chancellor for innovation, Richard Jones. Now the UK has been overtaken in R&D by all major western competitors. Even China, a vastly poorer economy in terms of GDP per capita, is more research-intensive than the UK.
Now Britons laud businessmen such as James Dyson who make most of their stuff in Asia. As a result, we rely on the rest of the world to come here and buy our assets. And even on something as relatively simple as telecoms equipment, we can’t help but be pulled into other countries’ strategic battles.
Ends.
(Continues Part 2 of 3) -
. . . Well, the answer is that the UK did have one. It was one of the largest and most famous industrial companies in the world. And it was finally killed off within the lifetime of every person reading this article, just over a decade ago. It was called the General Electric Company, or GEC, and the story of how it came to die explains and illuminates much of the mess the country is in today.
At its height, in the early 80s, GEC was not a company at all. It was an empire comprising around 180 different firms and employing about 250,000 people. It built everything from x-ray machines to ships, and it was huge in telecoms and defence electronics. At the helm was Arnold Weinstock, who took the reins in 1963 and spent the next three decades building it into a colossus, securing his place as postwar Britain’s most renowned industrialist.
The son of Jewish Polish immigrants, Weinstock never quite slotted into his role in the British establishment. He was known to be fanatical about cost-cutting, terrible at managing people, and only really lit up by breeding racehorses and visiting Milan’s La Scala opera house. Journalists visiting his Mayfair headquarters found the carpet threadbare and the paint peeling off the walls. A correspondent for the Economist more used to convivial three-bottle lunches with captains of industry came away complaining that GEC’s guests “have never been known to receive so much as a glass of water”.
That Economist profile was headlined Lord of Dullest Virtue, which sums up how both boss and business were seen: steadily profitable yet cautious and utterly unfashionable in the Britain of the 80s, which fancied a turbocharge. Weinstock went unloved by Margaret Thatcher, who preferred the corporate-raiding asset-stripper James Hanson (or Lord Moneybags, as he was dubbed). The post-Big Bang City bankers glanced at GEC’s vast spread of unglamorous businesses, out of step in an era of specialisation, and its shy boss better suited to a Rhineland boardroom – and buried both in plump-vowelled disdain.
Perhaps the pinstriped jeering got to Weinstock. Even as he protested “we’re not a company to render excitement”, he too began indulging in the 1980s business culture of “if it moves, buy it”. Between 1988 and 1998, academics found that GEC did no fewer than 79 “major restructuring events”: buying or selling units, or setting up joint ventures. But it was after Weinstock stepped down in 1996 that all hell broke loose. His replacement was an accountant, George Simpson, who had made his name, as the Guardian sniffed, “selling Rover to the Germans”. The new finance director, John Mayo, came from the merchant-banking world detested by Weinstock. Together the two men looked at the giant cash pile salted away by their predecessor – and set about spending it, and then some.
(Part 3 of 3 follows) > > >
Posting this because it highlights UK's own back-in-the-day Huawei -namely GEC (or in its final days then known as Marconi)
BT would have hired GEC to manufacture their 5G probably before the rest of the world would have even been aware of the term 5G - that's how advanced BT were back then.
So not strictly true that BT would make 5G - but they would commission it after issuing their specifications to GEC. So in a way, with patents and expertise would BT have been able to offer their own 5G through their supplier GEC?
Whatever the bare minimum without govt interference is that the UK would have had its very own 5G and stole a lead on the world.
BT mentioned as delivering the final nail in the coffin to GEC because by then they were but a pale shadow of their former selves, so BT was compelled to dump GEC for Huawei - read on -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/08/britain-huawei-general-electric-company-thatcherism
(PART 1)
Chances are that you have learned rather a lot about Huawei. That the Chinese giant is one of the world’s most controversial companies. That security experts, those people we pay to be paranoid on our behalf, warn its telecoms kit could be used by Beijing to spy on us. That Theresa May was begged by cabinet colleagues to keep the firm well away from our 5G network – yet ignored them. And that one or more senior ministers were so eager to prove their concern for national security that they leaked details of their meeting, thus breaching national security.
So you can already guess what will happen when Donald Trump’s secretary of state, meets May and her foreign secretary on Wednesday. Once the pleasantries about Harry and Meghan’s baby are over, top of America’s agenda will be to warn No 10 of the threat Huawei poses to British privacy – and to restate that Washington may retaliate by freezing London out of its intelligence network.
Maybe you recall whistleblower Edward Snowden and his revelations, published in this paper, about how US surveillance services are themselves harvesting millions of people’s phone calls and internet usage. Or possibly you are too busy gasping at the haplessness with which a Conservative-run government has allowed itself to be dragged into an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing. Many are the questions raised by this affair, but among the largest is one I have not seen asked. Namely, where is Britain’s Huawei? How does one of the world’s most advanced economies end up without any major telecoms equipment maker of its own, and having to buy the vital stuff from a company that enjoys, according to the FBI, strong links with both the Chinese Communist party and the People’s Liberation Army?
Well, the answer is that the UK did have one. It was one of the largest and most famous industrial companies in the world. And it was finally killed off within the lifetime of every person reading this article, just over a decade ago. It was called
(Contin