Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Sorry Kerching. Good point. Here is the revised maths:
$25 production cost per barrel. Average price (WTI) up to COVID-19 was $50/barrel. Therefore an estimated $25 profit per barrel. Translating that to £ is about £20.
For every 1bn barrels that translates to £20bn profit (give or take). £20bn divided by 2,328m (2.328bn) shares
£20,000,000,000 / 2,328,000,0000 = 8.6p
Taking Investorking's comment about Moyes into account, "4 to 30+ billion barrels" that's a profit/share of 34.4p to 258p for the oil that is there. Of course, if oil doubles in price and production costs remain the same (which they never do, but let's consider the best scenario) then the profits will double.
Not sure where I was out by a factor of 100?
Bearing in mind this is overall profit per share (not SP which I'd expect to be higher), based on taking all the available oil, and of course based on that (rather low) price of $50/barrel.
Hi Welsh,
The conclusion to your workings is good, but you might want to re-check the maths. You’re a factor of 100 out and should be showing the answer in $ rather than £.
This will make the numbers even better.
GLA
Welsh,
Noted, but if they make a discovery of 4 billion barrels...I ensure you the price of this share will not be 40p....it will be a lot higher. Probably...over a pound. But depends how much of the 4 billion is recoverable. Anyway this share has a bit of publicity now and that can only ensure it rises. Brent crude is nearing 40 dollars a barrel now which is excellent news. We should be back at 50 dollars in 6 months.
*anything = anytime.
We will have a good idea on the numbers once we are aware of the farm out or if there's a dilution.
Farm out can come anything.
The only concern is that next official news apart from the farm out won't be till September. The company can do with some PR during this lull period.
Hi Interestking,
Thanks! Just realized I referred to you as Investorking in my previous post. Sorry about that! Getting a bit past my bedtime haha. Honestly, this looks like a great share and I'm willing to wait and see if my predictions are right. If so we could all come out of this with our wallets a bit heavier!
Welsh - you’ve got to be a flanker straight at it - no holds barred - luv it mate!
GL
IK
XX
P.S. I THINK YOU MAY BE RIGHT,
Nimp I get where you’re coming from.
The point I’m trying to make is that The cash is there- some of it is expensive- but may be cheapened with other deals - and most importantly - it doesn’t matter at all - because we have the finance - we have the rig - we have PPE - we IMO - will have Oxford Uni vaccine by the drill event -
All we need now is a drill bit hitting oil in copious amounts - and then the guessing stops.
We are PROSPECTORS. Like The Cailornian Gold Rush.
I was boooorrrrnnnn under a wandering star - I was booooooorrrnnn under a wandering star - do I know where hell is , hell is in hello etc etc. or 10 years of BPC INVESTMENT.
P.S. I can’t get as low an octave as Lee Marvin!
GL
IK
XX
Hi Petroleuminvest, it's just based on my calcs and Investorking's post:
"Price of oil is highly volatile atm, but lets say the average cost of production is $25/barrel. Before COVID, oil prices were hovering around $50 (WTI). So, let's say we are looking at 1bn barrels at $25 profit from 2021. That's $25bn. Number of shares issued currently is 2,328m. That's a potential profit of 10.739p/share (approx 10p for every 1bn barrels)."
Apparently (according to Investorking), Moyes have anticipated 4 to 30+ billion barrels. With 4bn as minimum that makes a profit/share of 40p.
It's just a rough estimate, but entirely feasible. Obviously if they sell off the asset it will be for probably about 50% of the estimated profit or LPV (lifetime profit value). So I'd expect the SP to reflect that evaluation.
Welsh Trader, not sure how you are arriving at those figures but hope you are right about 40p!!
Based on my calcs that puts BPC in the 40 - 400p profit/share range.
I mean if you buy the minimum shares (3500) that puts you at £1400 to £14000 valuation of your position for £100 investment (i.e. 14 to 140 bagger)!
Better than it sitting in the bank making 0.25% a year.
Hi IK,
I was just looking to understand how the convertible loan works
I've held in here since 2009 (and topped up recently), and have been lost out on a number of other shares that I bought back then- I've previously bought and still have ntog, ast bou, and GCM (only because it would cost me more to sell them than I'd get from doing so!)
There is certainly money to be made here, and BPC is in a different league to those I mention above, like I said i'm looking to add more
“This time next year we’ll be millionaires Rodders!” - champagne on ice :)
ATB
Nimp
Hi Nimp.
We’ve gone past the point of what price in the event of what?
This is prospecting - is there oil or not?
Moyes who are recognized as the best analysts in the business reckon we have potential 4+Bill - to 30+ Bill.
Work it out.
As Keith said earlier - California gold rush or IMO Tulip bubble in 17th Century.
IMHO
“This time next year we’ll be millionaires Rodders!”
GL
IK
XX
I'm a long term holder happy that things have finally got moving and looking to increase my holding.
Its reassuring the company would look to minimise any dilution of shares going forwards (as mentioned in rns) but re the convertible loan that's mentioned I assume if that's taken up new shares would be issued and dilution would occur which would reduce share price - or has this already been factored into current price?
Given the funding options mentioned I'm unsure of the likelihood of share dilution going forwards and would be interested to hear people's views on this
Genuinely curious and looking to learn/understand
Thanks
GLA
Nimp
if you missed it!
Stena Rig Contract & bottom of the page for BPC future funding all explained in detail.
https://tinyurl.com/ybbehfaz
source: London Stock Exchange