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Thanks Bliss. I’m not sure more barrels is a good thing or a bad thing!
Just think of the rate at which they can retrieve it? If it’s near the levels a previously mentioned then that’s a long time, will oil even be in demand then to those levels?
If they are going to go for it, isn’t it going to take some serious fund raising to get the assets to be able to achieve this?
Like I say I’m no expert, I’ve taken a small 5k holding but that would make me very happy if we reach the £1 mark.
Ta,
Muel
You could read today's RNS to find out where the 770 came from, they have mentioned it enough!
'Significant progress achieved during the year toward drilling the Perseverance #1 well in 2020, which is targeting P(50) recoverable prospective resources of 0.77 billion barrels of oil, with an upside of 1.44 billion barrels, solely from the northern structural closure portion of the B structure. In total the B structure extends between 70 and 80 kms, has a mapped areal closure over 400 km(2) and has an aggregate most likely recoverable resource potential in excess of 2.0 billion barrels.'
Now I am not one to be negative, I did some quick maths in my head late last night and came to a similar conclusion about the value of oil / potential. However I am sure I saw an article suggestion there are 770m barrels of oil to be had.
PMOs rate is around 90k barrels per day, I think that was about 32mil a year.. so it would take PMO (an established company) some 24 years to get 770mil barrels. 24 years.
So I think a value of £8.60, which may I add is 2/3 the value of shells current SP my be a little ambitious. I’m no oil rig expert it’s just looking at the market. I do however think a PMO share price may be achievable in the next few years if all goes well and that’s nothing to be snubbed at.
My order is already pending, I’ll be here for a while!
(This is purely my view, I’m not trying to ruffle feathers)
Well after two uncrossings (8am and 9am) I finally managed to buy in at 3.29.
Here for the long run now. I'm sure I'll be around here when things really start kicking off.
See you all at £1. GLA.
PIE / P_I/ POO/PINT/MATE!
Luv it - we’re on the same page - just trying to calm the kids down - OM goodness wasn’t that patronizing from an old git!
GL
IK
XX
PI, p-i, P_I, pie, I'll take any, i am not precious.
I think 90% plus of lth are more than comfortable with SP doing whatever it does short term. A few day traders about at the moment, to be expected with recent SP volatility.
The BPC journey has been a blast.
Painful lessons along the way.
Highs, and lows from day to day.
Friends well met, virtual to date.
Party beckons, sandwiches await.
Hold your shares to join the cast.
Main worry I see is not funding but nationalization of oil and fields, the Bahamas was hit hard by natural disasters. But on the other side it would go to arbitration
P_ I (BTW-really annoys me when I have to go in different script for lowercase dash! XX)
Absolutely correct as usual - luv ya! And waiting for the invite to the African coastal Islands.
P.S. - I’ll pay!
Look guys - The Maths take care of themselves.
You can equate and divide and multiply til - wait for it - The cows come home and then the market milks you!
Be patient - you will either be very rich next year or no worse off! THAN NOW!!!
I genuinely believe the best prospector in The history of”divining” was Alan Burns (read his CV- amazing!)
SP
was /is his protege.
EU is exceptional- one of my mates met him on hols and was very impressed
All the other stuff has been reiterated so many times.
BUT AGAIN WE ARE NOT TRADERS IN THIS ONE - WE ARE DOING THE DANCE LIKE MR HUSTON AND HUMPHREY B IF THIS STRIKES!
Chill pill on detail - WE ARE ON OUR WAY!
Luv ya folks.
My goodness am I going over the top now - vvvvvvvvv excited!!!a,
GL
IK
XX
@Welsh - no probs - when we get post spud and we know what the current POO is around then we can both put some numbers together.
Welsh,
I am not an expert in the area of production flow rates and it is not a post critical of you.
I would be interested to hear from an informed poster on the productivity rates per operating platform once in production.
Given the potential size of the prize I would expect multiple wells will be in play if the numbers play out. Our deal with BG is scaled against production targets, they will want the revenue just as much as BPC will.
Hi Minimill,
I understand its just a "back-of-the-envelope" guesstimate. Of course there are many other factors to consider on top of oil price and taking an average production cost per barrel. I am sure BPC can come up with their own evaluations taking into account further technical variables. I also understand the oil won't be out of the ground and on the market after a few weeks.
I have no idea what the SP will be, I was just having a go at getting a rough estimate for how much the prospect would be worth once proven. I'd be happy with even a tenth of my figure based on 4bn barrels. Of course, they then need to find somebody to sell it to as well.
OK
Time for the lecture:
Calm down - this is a great BB that respects folks views.
Somethings that get written can be interpreted by the reader as negative responses - In almost all cases they are not meant to be. It is misinterpretation I.e. can’t see body language to judge joke or not!
AND we have DCI Bryn to deal with idiots who sometimes try to pop in!
All your contributions make us stronger - just be kind please!
Luv ya all
GL
IK
XX
Phoebus - Looking good according to Antman on twitter the xt target is 3.41.
https://twitter.com/AntMwah/status/1267168956915355648/photo/1
That's fine with me Loz. I see we've come out of auction 10 minutes late at 3.34p.
@Welsh - I am all for someone putting an estimate together but some reality needs to be factored in here. Let's assume there is a commercial oil strike in 6-7 months time. Let's also assume the Oil is good quality i.e. around 35-45 API and is sweet with normal GOR and low or no water cut. Let's also say they use an FPSO with 50,000 bbl/d STO production. Work out annual revenues and profit from that and you will get something near a conservative SP. 1 billion barrels would take over 50 years to produce at 50kbbl/d production.
What on earth are you talking about?
Welsh - ya cant beat a bit of “torque” in share dealing!
GL MON AMI
IK
XX
Phoebus - Why would that make a difference to me? when it's you whom came at me first....Jeez.
Just remember, if you come at anyone then they have a right to respond in the same manner.
Let's draw a line under it, as i don't want to clog this board as we are here for BPC and we shall all be rewarded come end of the year.
Loz, do you want me to put your on filter? You're going about it the right way?
Your figures might seem ludicrous, but so is the massive potential on offer here. This is by far one of the juciest exploration drills I've seen in a long time. I'm sure many people agree and this should drive the SP significantly higher even before the drill starts turning especially. Many have been waiting 10+ years for this and will be desperate to get in rather than sit on the sidelines and watch it march higher. We must bear in mind that in most cases share prices of companies with major drills start rallying significantly higher several months ahead of drilling, so we are right on schedule to begin the rerate much higher.
Phoebus -stop acting like a child.
I clearly said, i was going to take some off, as incorrectly read the RNS as i though the new shares will be on the market until Bonus corrected me. This was my message:
''Nice to see some blue, after new shares hitting the market today, as I expected some retrace.
It'll take a bit time to shift the new shares but no more debt thankfully.
Will be taking some off today as I'm almost 90 % up.''
It seems, i ain't the only one who needs to re-read. Now go and grab your cereal lad :-)
Phoebus, was halfway through them when I saw it so they'd just started kicking in haha.
That puts this at an estimated profit per share of between £34.40 to £258 (4 to 30bn barrels). If they sell off the prospect for even 1/3 of that, I think we'd be laughing all the way to the bank.
Thought you were a bit out LOL. Go eat your Weetabix. ;)
And Kerching, I see now where I was out by 100.
£20,000,000,000 / 2,328,000,0000 = £8.60!!!!!!!!
Sorry, if oil doubles then the profits will more than double ($25 prod, $100 sell price = $75 profit).