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The US market has learnt a big lesson from Oxy’s Acquistion of ANDARKO in 2019. It destroyed them.
Warren Buffet would probably disagree with you but you are correct that initially OXY did struggle with the acquisition of Anardarko as the overpaid by outbidding other competitors but that is water under the bridge now.
Certainly taking over a company that has a larger market cap than yourself is not that unusual and the mood of BP shareholders is such that there might not be that high level of opposition to a takeover.Conoco would be most interested in BP's assets in Gulf of Mexico and Permian basin.They got an absolute bargain from Shell when the bought their Permian assets and Bp's acquisition of BHP assets there was also an absolute snip.Other assets can be sold off to reduce debt.US traders like all share deals as there is no capital gains tax to pay on those sort of deals and at least 50% of BP equity is held over the pond
BP is not going to be acquired guaranteed .Unquote. We shall see on that one,absolutely nothing guaranteed in the oil business,learnt that from 35 years in the oil patch.
• In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizationsc compared to the prior quarter are expected to have an adverse impact in the range of $0.2-0.4 billion, including declines in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. There is also expected to be an adverse impact of around $0.2 billion as a result of the devaluation of the Egyptian Pound. In addition, the gas marketing and trading result is expected to be strong following a strong result in the fourth quarter 2023.
• In the oil production & operations segment, realizationsc compared to the prior quarter are expected to have an adverse impact in the range of $0.3-0.6 billion, including price lags on bp's production in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE and also declines in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices.
Other items: Net debt is expected to increase in the first quarter mainly reflecting a working capital build plus phasing of capex and divestment and other proceeds as previously guided.
a All impacts influence bp's underlying RC profit before interest and tax, unless stated otherwise.
b Includes bp's share of production of equity-accounted entities.
c Realizations are based on sales by consolidated subsidiaries only - this excludes equity-accounted entities.
Trading conditions
Brent averaged $83.16/bbl in the first quarter 2024 compared to $84.34/bbl in the fourth quarter 2023.
Morning all
Clued- The issue I have with the EIA is their methodology and their adjustment pattern that enables them to publish now and adjustment later. Now that would not matter if it did not have the subsequent influence over the price of oil.
By design ? Well if not then I would expect adjustments to data would be to overstated as well as understated published data.
The fact of the matter is that the EIA adjustments to US oil production has become consistently negative, indicating that US oil production is likely overstated and not only are supplies overstated, implied weekly oil demand has been understated. Surely, the flawed methodology could be amended to avoid this problem. The EIA's previous attempt at clarity in response to concerns of method was merely the substitution of one confusion for another.
My question is this. Is the EIA really a government agency doing its best in attempting to publish official data, or, is it under the influence of vested interests?
My opinion after studying EIA publications for the past two years alongside 'independent' data providers is the latter.
Have a great day all
Mark
You say CONOC (COP)could launch a bid for BP. There smaller than BP, and think the US market has learnt a big lesson from Oxy’s Acquistion of ANDARKO in 2019. It destroyed them.
COP don’t have prowess as XOM or CVX, and note COP have already completed M&A of Burlington for $36bn
https://intellizence.com/insights/merger-and-acquisition/largest-merger-acquisition-deals/
BP is not going to be acquired guaranteed .
Hugely impressive from shell - What a business they have on their hands - still think the value play is bp however.
Shell can complain about their valuation vs. US oilers all they want, but they cut divi's rapidly during COVID which the US players did not
Shell is a dynamic company run by highly qualified and experienced young professionals.
Hope they take us over and sprinkle some of their magic on our tired old bones.
I get a bit dispondent when I compare the BP BoD to them.
Hi Happy I cannot wait for our results
Exciting times for Bp :)
One of Shell's best quarters in recent memory. Sets a very high bar for us here next week.
It'll be interesting to see how Murray does. With all this talk of Shell / BP relisting, it's worth pointing out that larger proportion of our barrels are produced in the US (v Shell). We are the ideal candidates for a US move.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Monday a bank holiday
So only 2 more trading days till results.
Oil down today so maybe till Tuesday my glass will stay half empty.
Will welcome any positive news Tuesday.
No one has the dosh to acquire BP which have to be north of £100bn.
Fancy Conoco might test the waters with a bid which would show how far BP have fallen in the big stakes but is it actually value for money.It is cheaper to increase your reserves by buying rather than exploration by a long while.Thats what BP always did
$10 a pop and they can have my pot tomorrow.
Clued/ Spights/Mark
I have always believed that the swings week to week are a function of start times of tankers being loaded or offloaded.
Eg if you start loading a tankers at several ports 6 hours before reporting time or 6 minutes.
Note if it’s only 6 minutes,the other 5 hrs 54 minutes would have been taken up with one tanker departing and a new one being tied up.
It simply displaces the activity into the next reporting window.
So large loss followed by large gain next week.
It’s my theory and I’m sticking to it.
Significant acquisitions included ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources for $64.5bn and Chevron's $53bn deal to buy Hess I think says it all.
The EIA noted that these deals are the largest in real terms since Occidental Petroleum Corporation acquired Anadarko Petroleum Corporation for $55bn in 2019.20 Mar 2024, and Crownrock for $12bn in 2023.
No one has the dosh to acquire BP which have to be north of £100bn.
I’d just be happy that the FTSE still has it as SHEL is leaving FTSE. That’s for sure.
BP is in play for a takeover, its a sitting duck...be patient
MarkGo, "EIA's corrupted oil demand data seen for what it is."
Surely the EIA is reporting correct data and not falsified wrong data ? I know that Biden wants a low oil price for his election and that movements within the US Oil Reserves (SPR) can distort data, but surely the EIA is reporting the correct figures ?
Thanks spights. Sounds to me that as the FED are reducing from June2024 the monthly price cap on buying Treasury securities from USD60b to USD25b that the inflationery effects of that will reduce and that there's an acknowledgement from the FED that their higher rate of purchase of these securities may have been fueling the very inflation rate that they're trying to reduce. My Economics is quite rusty so maybe I'm wrong here ?!! If I'm right, then the FED statement is maybe some good news ?
Https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fed-decision-heres-what-changed-in-the-new-statement.html
Https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-may-fed-rate-decision.html
Mark the oil data 100% agree
Manipulation
Jeroen blokland
@jsblokland
BREAKING! The #FederalReserve keeps rates unchanged. AND cuts Treasury balance sheet reduction to USD 25 billion. Like #Powell told everyone at the last #FOMC meeting, the Fed likes its balance sheet BIG!
BP held up well today considering.
Evening all
Looking forward to the manufactored market drama moving on. Federal reserve interest decision, Powell's cautionary words. The return of 50% of markets after today's International labour day market holiday and the US government's weaponised EIA oil demand data seen for the corruption of detail for political advantage. US Presidential election just six months away.
BP back in the 520's within days.
Powell's comments. Dov
Return of many European and Asian markets from International labour day tomorrow.
EIA's corrupted oil demand data seen for what it is.
Webcast details
bp's first quarter 2024 results will be released at 7am BST/2am EDT on Tuesday 7 May.
Murray Auchincloss, chief executive officer and Kate Thomson, chief financial officer will host a question and answer session from 1pm BST/8am EDT to 2pm BST/9am EDT (approx).
Date
Tuesday 7 May
Time
1 – 2pm BST / 8 – 9am EDT (approx.)
The next BP dividend will be declared on 07-May-2024. This BP dividend will be the 2024 Q1 dividend and is expected to be $0.0727 with an ex-dividend date of 16-May-2024 and a dividend payment date of 28-Jun-2024. BP.D