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Hi Guys,
Please add me @ 475p
ATB
OPEC Maintains Its Rosy Outlook For Oil Demand In 2024
By Julianne Geiger - Jul 06, 2023, 10:30 AM CDT
OPEC is expected to keep a bullish view on next year’s oil demand growth when it publishes its outlook on July 13, according to Reuters.
Anonymous OPEC sources who spoke to Reuters said on Thursday that OPEC’s 2024 demand outlook will likely remain upbeat and above average, although lower than this year’s oil demand growth.
For 2023, OPEC said in its June report that oil demand growth was expected to be 2.35 million bpd—a 2.4% increase over 2022, and a rather high rate that comes only after a couple of years of sluggish demand courtesy of the coronavirus pandemic. This was a slight increase from its May report that forecast 2.33 million bpd.
OPEC’s 2024 oil demand growth is expected to be below that 2.35 million bpd forecast for this year, although the group is still expected to forecast above-average growth next year.
It will also likely be above IEA projections, which is anticipating a mere .86 million bpd growth.
Three OPEC sources said that the oil demand growth slowdown next year won’t be as severe as the IEA projects—and still above 1 million bpd. A fourth source that Reuters described as close to OPEC said that the demand growth would likely be above 1.5 million bpd.
OPEC’s bullish view of 2024 oil demand growth comes as OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia raised its crude oil prices to Asia today, and follows Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser’s comments earlier this week that oil demand growth out of China and India alone was 4 million barrels per day between 2019 and 2023.
In its latest monthly report, however, OPEC cautioned readers of “rising uncertainties regarding economic growth” in the second half of this year thanks to inflation, rising interest rates, and tight labor markets. It also pointed to geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe as adding yet another layer of uncertainty to oil demand growth forecasts.
Yeah I think your right Tinker hope tomorrow is a better day or this will be a strong sell signal. Unfortunately I can’t see much positive at the moment it may just be better to take 6 percent + in a savings account for now and see how things on out.
I could be wrong but I think the last time we closed under 450p was last Oct. Just got to hold on tight.
T
Competition update5 Jul 2023 06:56
Subject: Competition 2023 Christmas ( Bottle of Champagne for winner)
Christmas 2023 Jeffrey1979 £4.60
WeirdPal £4.64
Christmas 2023 Owls £4.71
Cunningfox £4.79
Christmas 2023 Spikeyj £4.84
Christmas 2023. ClydeCrusader £4.85
Christmas 2023 wolfiebill £4.87
Christmas 2023 beecknot £4.95
Redjim £4.97
Christmas 2023Selecta6 £5
Grezz £5.05
AimingForProfit £5.09
Christmas 2023 Halma 1983 £5.10
Christmas 2023 Pang £5.12
Rupert Bear £5.15
Christmas 2023 Boxter £5.18
Christmas 2023 GKerr £5.20
Christmas 2023 J.S.B £5,24
Christmas 2023 Bruce77 £5.27
Christmas 2023 Neil 74 £5.33
Christmas 2023. Keepergy £5.45
Sundezena £5.48
Christmas 2023 Harmonica £5.50
Christmas 2023 Rjb 92 £5.55
Christmas 2023 Redjim £5.65
Christmas 2023 GoodTo Go £5.70
Christmas 2023 Jezzo £5.75
Christmas 2023. meoryou £5.78
cChristmas KPMAN £5.83
Christmas 2023 Jakers £5.85
Christmas 2023 MarkGo £5.90
Rhino2K £5.97
Christmas 2023 Happy investor 100 £6.00
Cong £6.15
Christmas 2023 Spights £6.45
Christmas 2023 jamtart 1 £6.50
Christmas 2023 y11 £4.05
Crude oil prices remained down today after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an estimated inventory decline of 1.5 million barrels for the week to July 1.
This compared to an estimated inventory draw of a substantial 9.6 million barrels for the previous week, which pushed prices temporarily higher.
At 452.2 million barrels, the EIA said, U.S. crude oil inventories were about the five-year average for this time of the year.
Demand concern, however, continues to weigh on prices, even if the EIA recently revised upwards its own fuel demand figures for April—the month with the latest data—surprising at least one bank.
Citi analysts called the EIA’s revision “startling”, with the total upward revision of fuel demand for that month at 350,000 bpd.
The market, however, has shrugged off or ignored the news, focusing on rate hikes and GDP numbers.
The EIA, meanwhile, reported inventory declines in fuels for the week ending July 1.
Gasoline inventories shed 2.5 million barrels in the reporting period, with production averaging 10.3 million bpd.
This compared with a build of 600,000 barrels for the previous week and production rates of 10.1 million bpd.
Meforyou - spot on
Jeffrey it’s easy
The world has went nuts.
Nothing makes sense for more than 3 days.
A trend is something that moves in a straight line for at least 10 minutes.
Looking like I need to revise my xmas number to 400p - I am just bewildered with SPs across teh board. Clealry all teh smart investors are buying gilts while the UK stock market becomes an elephant graveyard. Irrelevant what OP does (unless it goes down) we just cant seem to change direction. My pension is 50k donw this year and all I see on tiktok is that people are making money...clearly not on Uk stocks
Careful Meoryou, in the new world order if you don't fully agree with climate change your shareholding will be sacrificed, your bank account closed and you will be reduced to eating gruel.
Lol
Thanks Spights
We will always enjoy your positivity ( and many of your posts)
You think Theaky is being funny.
He would love to see all the Greenie members of the board walk the plank,and would probably prod Looney of with a sharp implement.
Thanks Spights
Same to you for your daily livechart and optimistic outlook posts and there are many reasons to be positive despite the recent fall. I have topped up a number of times on the way down with all these top ups being under water. Not perfect timing but I would not rule out a return to previous recent highs by the end '23.
Just for fun. I'm going to call a positive end to the day today and after tonight's IEA data a positive day tomorrow.
Let's see. Great afternoon all
Theaky you are funny
Thankyou Mark and meoryou for your excellent posts really appreciated
Plus the others I have not mentioned
Onwards and upwards:)
https://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php
Positive
Hi Theaky
Thank you. The investments in the transition are wide and vast and have zero value to date. I am looking forward to some meat on the bones at Q2 also. By 2025 they have previously stated they plan to produce 25GW of renewable energy so only two years or less to go and 50GW by 2030. This is on par with Orsted's targets. A company ( from memory ) valued at around £30 billion !!
Here's a positive article, albeit from fool.
https://www.fool.co.uk/2023/07/04/new-field-start-up-and-china-recovery-makes-bp-share-price-look-cheap-to-me/
Have a great day.
Soylent Green !
Clued, maybe we can start with the BOD.
MarkGo, Thankyou for the exellelent posts.
Hopefully looking forward to next results we can get a better understanding of were we are regarding all our green expenditure.
Along with a nice dividend increase and brighter skies approaching we can look forward to a substantial lift in the share price.
Cheers.
Hi meoryou
I expect that the data is already probably released to some 'insiders' prior to the official release and the movement in the price of oil prior to release gives me reason to be positive.
With all the negative narrative around on interest rates, demand worries, global recession, China slowdown etc etc demand for oil is still expected to be at record levels this year.
Here's the IEA market report from June 2023
"The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries.
About this report
World oil demand will grow by 2.4 mb/d in 2023 to 102.3 mb/d, a new record. China’s rebound continues unabated, with its oil demand reaching an all-time high of 16.3 mb/d in April. The non-OECD accounts for 90% of gains this year, as OECD demand remains lacklustre amid the current manufacturing slump. An increasingly adverse macroeconomic climate will act as a headwind in 2024, and as the post-pandemic recovery will largely have run its course, oil demand growth is set to slow to 860 kb/d.
Non-OPEC+ leads world supply growth through next year, adding 1.9 mb/d in 2023 and 1.2 mb/d in 2024. As for OPEC+, total oil output in 2024 is set to decline by 200 kb/d as production curbs are carried through the year. Total oil supply is forecast to reach record high levels of 101.3 mb/d this year and 102.3 mb/d next year. In May, world oil supply fell by 660 kb/d to 100.6 mb/d after extra cuts from some OPEC+ producers kicked in. Saudi Arabia has promised to curb output by a further 1 mb/d in August."
So record oil demand with all the uncertainties. Now if those uncertainties decline, if the slowdown in China turns around, if non OECD countries demand more supply and with supply already tight it is clear what would happen to the price of oil and oil equities in my opinion.
We need a few months of positive oil data for fundamentals to trump sentiment.
All the best
Hi Mark
We await theIEA report with keen interest.
Another monster build please
Clued
Maybe you have hit on the next big green thing.
All the greenies can leave their bodies to global energy.
Goodness, they'll be grabbing corpses next !!
I'm liking the vibe from Shell's new CEO - he understands their biz model will change but the change will happen over years/decades therefore is not rushing into anything and is even producing more - I may start to switch some of the personal bp holding over to Shell as he seems more focused on investor return
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66108553?dm_i=53XH,TDHC,2JIQBV,3H6NC,1
Good morning all
Broker recommendations are like horoscopes. Both are meaningless but I would rather read a positive one than a negative. Brokers always follow the trend and announce adjustments after share price movements. Barclays still have £10 which was an upgrade from £7 that was never achieved. It's all semi interesting nonsense. Once the SP rises analysts will follow with upgrades just as they have announced downgrades 'after' the share price has fallen by 20%. Hardly rocket science.
On a bright note, AIP US data released yesterday showed a possible draw of 4.4mb last week ( w/e 30/06 ) against an estimate of 1.8mb from US crude inventories. This is an upward weekly trend. The IEA announce their data later today.
To reiterate a previous post. As of this week, the SPR releases end and replenishing begins. The Saudi 1m cut will hit supply this week and for at least the next two months. Peak summer driving season is recognised to commence early July and it seems the price of oil is rising due to these factors.
I'm guessing we will rise slowly from here out of the recent trading range with zigzagging northwards and a pick up after volumes and traders return in September.
GLA