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Max, thats fine and you could well be right.
But here's the kicker: Couldn't you have expressed exactly the same sentiment just 6 months ago when the SP was around 350p?
Lol.... Try this....
Very interesting figures above, pre pandemic online shopping rate was 19.7pc then mid pandemic it hit 36.6pc but have now settled at over 28pc.
This is an absolutely massive boost to online spending when put into perspective - it means online retailers revenue will go up by 30 percent against pre covid ....
Sightwatcher... Careful. Catching a falling knife can be very painful!
Can you imagine if you had been saying that since 400p odd?
At the moment the SP is in decline and it may take a while to stabilise and as you said no idea when it will stop! It is any body guess it may fall to 150 but sit tight and try to buy during this downward trend !
I gave 3 options.It must be option 3!
Thats fair enough Rag, i just can't "see" where this one is going, which in my terms makes it far too high a risk.
Short term its under pressure but at some stage that will stop . It might stop here at 180p and be a great entry point or it might fall to 150p before it stabilises , who knows.
Long term, too many variables (for me)
You gave the 14% figure,which is the only figure needed.If that market is only 50% of the entire market ,it makes no difference to the 14%.The 14% relates only to the market we are talking about.
Try that one pedro....
RE: NO ONLINE TAX in Budget28 Oct 2021 09:24
"Online spending values increased in September 2021 by 0.5% when compared with August 2021, largely because of an increase in department stores sales values (3.8%). The monthly increase in online spending values resulted in a slight increase in the proportion of online sales, which increased to 28.1% in September 2021, from 27.9% in August.
This remains far higher than the proportion of online retail spending in February 2020, before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, of 19.7%, although it is below the peak pandemic level of 36.6% reached in February 2021."
@@@@@@@@@
Very interesting figures above, pre pandemic online shopping rate was 19.7pc then mid pandemic it hit 36.6pc but have now settled at over 28pc.
This is an absolutely massive boost to online spending when put into perspective - it means online retailers revenue will go up by 30 percent against pre covid ....
When you consider boohoo was comfortably growing above the guided 25 to 30 percent growth per year with online having under 20 percent of shoppers online you then start to realise what's really happening....
Covid has accelerated the move to online shopping....
THIS IS SIGNIFICANT.
No pedro you dont understand.
Nobody knows but we can go by years of stats if we wish to...
The key for me was when all the brands went into administration and any buyers refused to take the stores on board.... These were brands built up over decades as well... Imagine starting off with a new brand trying to succeed when established brands couldn't succeed
Great Britain’s high streets lost more than 17,500 chain store outlets in 2020
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/14/great-britain-high-streets-lost-more-than-17500-chain-stores-in-2020-covid
Wyn not sure about this.
Fast fashion is hard enough as it is to stay top dog for any length of time, let alone in a technological even faster moving environment, coupled with a social mobility upheaval.
I think this obsession with Fast Fashion is overplayed, majority is from UK and Turkey which as we know is not cheap so margins can be slim on own buy.
BH Group now has great balance of sourcing off shore (tks to AR) and a great balance of Brands (tks to acquisitions) to exploit this , I strongly believe these Brands will come into their own in next few years, they are going to be going head to head with Next, these Brands are far more steady and easier to plan, this is exactly what is going on within BH at mo, unlike Next BH Group is far more nimble then Next and BH's stable of Brands has far wider appeal, half the people on here are not even aware of what the Debs actually are, this is also crucial when it come down to joe public, it's easy to dismiss them as stale, some are but that's exactly what some of the demographic want, not to stand out in the crowd, for the ones that do there are others and ones who want to be fashion followers there is a Brand for them also, as for fashion leaders that's how BH got to acquire this stable in the first place. Fast, Steady, Slow Fashion this Group can now do all three.
SCB,
I'm not denying any of that, I am just trying to see where BH specifically fit in going forward from where they are now over the next 3-5 years.
However I don't think the high street is dead. I think it will change and right now because of covid, we can't make any judgement yet of how that might manifest itself.
Absolutely agree on the returns point. It's an important aspect of online sales that somehow needs to be addressed. Not sure how though.
If the footfall drops 14%for physical not online sales,which you claim,then that is the figure.Doubling up to 28% is wrong as you have already given the figure 14%.It makes no difference if physical is only 50% of the market.The 14% drop is the drop.You are trying to compare apples with oranges.
The nail in the coffin for high streets was smart phones.... Internet shopping from laptops was good but now everyone has a smart phone its even easier.....
People can deny it all they want but all the statistics for the last 10 years have mapped out the move to online...
And with all the new acquisitions it's a good time to buy imo....
Online shopping fails are a well-known entertainment online if you're bored. There is a reason why there are still so many shoe shops on the high street. It's the number of returns not purchases that should be used for guidance...and that's not even acknowledging straight to bin/charity shop purchases.
T4G, I was referring to advertising pay per click basis. Does BH not get involved in that?
If it doesn't then apologies, it was an assumption that they did.
Again I imagine there is a cost to the influencers? but again this is not an area I am familiar with and as an overall cost to the BH model it might be exceptionally low relatively.
However would you think if competition increases so BH's marketing/advertsing budget would also increase irrespective of sales volume?
Cheers
*I don't know how accurate that is although i take your broad point, but the reason you buy trendy clothes is to show them off in a social environment. *
The social environment is the club / bar / cafe / Instagram / TicTok.
I live opposite a mall and I don't see that many young people shopping - some definitely - but not as many as in times past. My wife (32) does go to the mall and buy clothes, on occasion - although mainly beauty products - but from brands like Ralph Lauren, Ted Baker, Tommy Hilfiger and so on. It's a different market place.
16 - 19s might hang out at the mall / high street, but I doubt they do much shopping there. Besides think about where these people used to shop - many of these places are no longer around or indeed have been bought by BOO / ASOS.
I'm not saying BOO is a sure bet, but I think it's pretty safe to say that E-commerce will continue to be a big part of how people shop.
KBYK, "Many of BOO's customers have probably never bought their clothes in person. There's no need to waste time going to malls and so on when you can do it all by phone."
I don't know how accurate that is although i take your broad point, but the reason you buy trendy clothes is to show them off in a social environment.
A lot of fun was recently had (just a few years ago or so) in youngsters "going to the mall", both to shop and to socialise with their friends.
yes they can buy on line, but is it/was it as much "fun" as high street shopping?
Will this trend of young people buying trendy clothes online continue? It may well do but it might not.
Say, you order something and the material/pattern/quality was not up to expectation, then maybe a rebound to seeing it in the shop will take place?
I am not for one second saying it will, but really to highlight youngsters can be a fickle bunch in their habits and if clothes shops can "afford" to be in the high street more than previously due to rates/online tax etc, that greater market place may attract BH demographic away from on-line.
As I say, I am not saying it will happen, just that I am suspicious in accepting never ending online expansion as a given.
I find it a very hard call on this one looking forwards
Simple analogy for you..
If online has 50 percent of the total revenue and and the high street has the other 50 percent - with me me so far?
Stay with me.....
If highstreet then lose 10 percent of sales to online does that mean the total highstreet revenue drops by 10 percent or 20 percent?
Pedro you do no understand percentages do you
People are always skeptical, as well as fearful of the future - but the high street is the past not the future - at least when it comes to clothes shopping. Many of BOO's customers have probably never bought their clothes in person. There's no need to waste time going to malls and so on when you can do it all by phone. And as for socialising, well, that takes place - but mostly on social media (modeling the clothes on insta) or indeed in clubs / bars and cafes.
At a current rate of 20-25% growth per year, BOO is more likely to be bigger than smaller in a few years.
Wyndrum.Excellent post,and very true
Its difficult to know how eventually the "high Street" will play out. Either an on-line tax, or complete business rate tax reform is coming quite soon, but either way there will be a levelling of the playing field soonish (as to what extent I don't know)
Clearly people being social animals like to go out and mingle. That has been damped down due to fears of catching or re-catching covid, but that is likely to pass over the coming months.
On-line is clearly hear to stay but it is expensive to maintain and improve websites as the minimum wage tends not to affect IT workers and it is also very expensive to "buy" business online through advertising.
I think some equilibrium is likely to occur and maybe online growth will start to slow.
With Boo expanding through other new brands that is not potentially a headwind right now, but I find it difficult to see where BH will be in 3-5 years (I don't mean that as a negative but simply as a reflection that I have no analysis to believe it will be more or less profitable than it is now, It could be double the size or smaller, I simply have no idea.
Fast fashion is hard enough as it is to stay top dog for any length of time, let alone in a technological even faster moving environment, coupled with a social mobility upheaval.
Or just very stupid?