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Time to recall some predictions made on this BB this month.
* 01-10-20 magmanus_49, SP=11.25p
BMN will be bounce much higher from here... Over 20p in week or so.
* 21-10-20 Wololol, SP=14.70p
From a technical point of view 16p tomorrow [22-10-20], 20p by end of next week [30-10-20] at least.
* 22-10-20 Libero, SP=13.63p
I now believe that we will see 20p+ next week [30-10-20] the way things are going.
* 22-10-20 Wisha, SP=13.63p
Floodgates about to be opened. Resistance about to get obliterated
Actual SP at end of the month: 11.30p
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it (Santayana).
Just to abbreviate your point , I think you are suggesting too much bull**** here.
Nice one LG .... I am a tad miffed .. had a limit order set for 11.25 today and just missed it ... oh well .. have to stick with the 82K shares I topped up on earlier in the week.
I have often repeated... Trading range of 11-15 until the paradigm changes .. and GS selling was not it. The MM's just played ping-pong to make a few quid.
All gonna go bang sometime soon .. and if .. if... Eskom does not happen ... if all we ever be is a steel makers supplier, then in 3 years we are making circa $100M net profit and naff all to invest in .... 3-5p div at a yield of 3% makes an SP of what ... a feck side more than it is now.
One way or another we will re-rate .. just hold hold hold
Well tbf the charts were pointing towards 20p+
Had we broken 15p, like we almost did, we would be there by now.
Next time it will happen.
Faramog
From the assumed annual $100m profit you mention from the completed production expansion (£75m) I would assume 1/3 could be made available as a dividend (Im sure FM could think of something to reinvest the 2/3 in..)
So £25m as divi. Shares paying 3% yield would get snapped up in today's low interest rate world so £830m Mcap would do it.
In other words more than 6x current £130m level. SP of around 70p.
What is the actual forecast profit from SP angel in 3 years when the doubling of production is complete? Does it tally with the $100m figure suggested?
Vv
Don't know VV ... my back of the fag packet calc a few months ago assumed more or less the same tax, benification and production costs, a Vanadium price of $35 and at least 6,500 MTV
Is it correct ? .. No .. is it wildly out .. probably not..... but in the end the real point is to get over to nervous PI's that feel they may have to take a hit that they do not .. just hold and just on steel alone we get to 70-100p in 3-4 years (faster if off AIM). The soundbite is rather the message - lots and lots of growing net profit.
Add in Electrolyte .. and remember, if we ourselves are not involved in rolling out storage, but just supply electrolyte there is that added premium and probable lease profits.
As for SPangel's numbers, well they have never remotely been right and even they attribute no value to various elements. They need to take a perhaps more conservative view for market reasons, but in the end, the big picture shows there is no question of ever growing revenues and profits.
All those PI's underwater, nervous, thinking about just taking a hit, just look forward a bit .... a year ago FM put some final bits in place. Now we have all the ducks in a row from mining to electrolyte to leasing to box-makers. We have stakes in supply elements and all ready now for the bit VFRB expansion.
There has been an oft used phrase on this BB 'exciting times' .... always been a very forward statement for me, but really, right now, the door is ajar and opening .. we really are heading into Exciting Times.
In olden times, sailors used to tatto 'Hold Fast' on their knuckles. Short for 'Hold has and ride it out'. Never has such a maxim applied to Bushveled right now
Hold fast !
Just looked and your quick calc isnt that far from SP Angel for 2023 - they've gone for $87.8m.
Thats on mining alone (7645mtV) with nothing added for any BE related activities.
Add in what BE/vrfbs could be doing in 3 years time and the outlook is compelling.
On twitter I've posted about the looming supply deficit and one can only speculate on the effect it will have by by 2023
https://twitter.com/VauxViva/status/1321782289903374339?s=09
Hi Faramog, I am a PI underwater at the moment but my confidence has not been shaken by the reduction in the SP. Those who understand what Fortune is building at BMN can see the strategy coming together and they are placing BMN front and centre of the Vanadium and VRFB take up in the near future. I still feel confident in my investment and have taken the opportunity to top up and reduce my SP average. Happy days!
Hi VV - the SPA flash note from 23.06.20 forecasts post tax profit of $105m for 2023 with sales of 7,645 mtV and V price of $40/kg.
I would estimate that at this level, a movement up or down in V price of $1/kg would impact the post tax profit by circa $5m per annum.
You quote a post tax profit forecast of $87.8m. Is there a more up to date SPA forecast available?
Thanks
https://*********************/dashboard/PortalDownloadResearchNote?id=a24eb81d-046e-406b-a98a-dbd28ec02a06&token=862e99cd-fd0f-4919-a449-4a83a6b45840&partner=&whitelabelCompanyId=
Hi James , I just looked in my downloaded files on my phone and the latest one I'd got from SPAngel was 30/09/20. So pretty recent.
Not sure how to attach it from my phobe to this lse message though. Would perhaps need to find it again online.
Found it now here James
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/sp-angel-morning-view-wednesday-30-09-20-cd66d8a/
The xxxxx on link address is v o x m a r k e t s
VV - thanks, I’ve now got it.
Looks as though SPA have increased operating cost from $15/kg to $17/kg when compared to their previous note. I recall this may be something related to a change in the way BMN are reporting operating costs, but will need to check interims. The change has reduced profit forecasts to $87.8m for 2023.
Cheers
VV - I believe these forecasts are also on a 100% basis.
Cheers James.
On costs it's a funny one as I would expect the natural consequence of increasing throughput is an increase in efficiency as de-bottlenecking investment takes effect and fixed costs are shared by dividing by the larger production figure to give a lower per kg cost. Also FM is keen on interviews to talk about reducing costs as something the company must focus on.
We'll see but I am hopeful that margins will increase as a result of squeezing costs and rising V demand so the sp Angel number I would hope is on the 2023 underside.
Worth noting too that whilst history isnt a predictor of the future, there were 3 Vanadium price spikes in the 13 years from 2005 to 2018 inclusive. Average of 1 every 4.3 years. So by 2023 we'd be overdue.. :)
LionelGreen - Great post, made me smile.
Going back to Eskom and the contract. We have to remember the situation on the ground in SA, in a nut shell its crap for most South Africans. The world bank have loaned the funds to Eskom as they are finacially fxxk for a better word.
"Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd has received financing for an the amount of US$ 406M, some serious chicken feed - This is for phase 1 of the BESS (800MWh) is divided it into three main packages for the seven (7) sites. The consultant will be responsible to provide engineering and project management support and legal services to the client on the following packages.
The total Scope of works includes all civil works, interlinking roads, and Battery management systems, a collection system, fibre-optic communication, BESS foundations, Firefighting, HVAC systems and commissioning of the BESS'
Eskom have to, literally get away for coal and get into solar which is happening. Eskom infrastructure is a mess, its falling apart due to a lack of investment, corruption and a lot of the 'old guys' have left. For Bushveld not to be involved, not to get contracts from Eskom, not to be the flagship supplier, if that happened I would eat my flip flop! South Africa does not work that way, there are reason why the make up of the BoD includes Dolly Mokgatle, ex employee of Eskom on numerous levels.
There is a zulu saying, 'Do not speak of a rhinoceros if there is no tree nearby' effectitvley means back up what you are going to do. For me, Eskom is a done deal, there is enough language from the board to tell me all is going to plan.
Yes Bushmaster totally agree it’s a done deal, actually I posted this back in August?! The more you look the more you will see that the last couple of years Bushveld has been gearing up to cementing the business with Eskom, for example just looking on the corporate page on the website you will see 4 director/managers were previously employed by Eskom in Key management Roles?
https://www.bushveldminerals.com/management/
https://www.bushveldminerals.com/directors/
Dolly Mokgatle
Dolly is a former Managing Director of the Transmission Group at Eskom and held various roles including, Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, Senior General Manager: Growth of Development and Acting Legal Manager. She served on the steering committee of the Electricity War Room in respect of electricity supply industry restructuring, both within and outside of Eskom. From 2005 until 2009, she was engaged by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa as Deputy Chairperson and chaired the Electricity Committee.
Prince Nyati
Prince has over 15 years’ experience in energy and mining with a particular focus on project development and mergers and acquisitions. He has worked in several countries including Zambia, South Africa, India, Singapore and the USA under Shell Oil, Total Petrochemicals, Eskom, Tata Power and Oreport. As group head of Tata Power, Prince evaluated over 100 coal assets and over 50 power opportunities in 30 countries.
Ken Grove
Ken is a Mining Engineer with extensive experience in project management, project development, business and company valuations, mergers and acquisitions, logistics contracts and specialised financing, particularly in the resource industry.
Prior to joining Bushveld, Ken worked in a boutique corporate finance company with industry colleagues providing a range of corporate development advice to various South African companies including BHP Billiton, Harmony Gold Mining Company, Eskom and Bushveld.
https://www.bushveldenergy.com/company/meet-the-business/
Pat Frampton
To date, he has project managed and commissioned 5 different Energy Storage Projects in South Africa, involving 3 different technologies.
His company was instrumental in the development of a Large Scale Energy Storage Pilot and Demonstration Facility for Eskom at its Rosherville Research Centre, including managing the installation, commissioning and integration of the various battery energy storage systems, as well as conducting the testing of these units on behalf of Eskom.