focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
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COC HSBC & OVMK still hanging in there,
another share that has turned out to be an utter FK Up for the PI's Milked dry by the previous incumbents and not likely to delivery any value to the PIs. AIM should be blown apart
so it would seem :(
heading back doon again.
Thanks Aalanani1.
From my perspective unrisked resource base at $170m is linked to a defunct development plan (fertalizer) where the economics where the were not compelling so my suggestion is that the 75% is linked to a blended average of the NPVs of the 3 scenarios highlighted (FLNG, Bioko Island, Golar Hilli). Being conservative let's assume for now this is USD190m, not USD170m.
In addition to which the FID would need to stay constant at USD25m. No need to risk this given this is a given.
Then,
Valuation of USD190m + USD25m (FID) + USD 80m (cash)/ 327m shares = USD 0.90 or GBP 0.70
For those amongst you not keeping up with the posts from ADVFN, I thought it might be helpful to share the below with you as well. Apologies for the repetition if you've already read it.
I felt it would be appropriate for me to chime in and remind everyone of the fundamentals that drive BLVN's valuation. I am seeing figures and numbers thrown around, but without any basis to back them up.
There is a general agreement amongst analysts that the the existing (unrisked) resource base is worth c. $170-190mn. Let's take the lower end of that range and consider it in the context of the development options available (i.e. standalone FLNG, offtake to Hilli, Bioko, etc). In my view, I am comfortable placing a 75% chance of the project proceeding with what we already have in the ground (you can adjust that probability as you like, point is it's not zero probability). That then gets me a risked value of the existing resource of $127.5mn. I then take the $25mn cash at FID and risk it by same probability, netting me $18.75mn. Finally, we have another $80mn of cash on the balance sheet, resulting in a total NAV of $225-230 vs a market cap of $140mn. By my math, that's an upside of 60-65% from current stock price.
Although IM-6 did not establish as much additional resource as hoped, the drilling program represents a critical step towards the development of Etinde. I am confident that we'll have FID eventually, not a question of if but when in my view.
Thanks Rivendell - that's quite some history!
They'll have to purer than pure for an IPO. Success in Cameroon would be a great fillip to that. ....
Their backers have history ....
""In 2011, Och-Ziff created another Africa-focused fund in a London-based oil exploration company. The fund purchased shares from Och-Ziff’s South African partner, who then paid more than $1 million to a consultant. The latter used the funds to bribe Guinean government officials. Both Och-Ziff and its two employees were willfully blind as to the high probability the consultant would use the funds for bribery (SEC, 2016)....""
https://sevenpillarsinstitute.org/case-study-och-ziffs-african-bribery/
Malcy today rumours that maybe there is to be a big new listing soon. With Steve Lowden gone, could it be New Age? And how would this affect Blvn?
This article is from the FT in 2016:
New Age takes first steps towards stock market debut | Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/51067150-77ff-11e6-a0c6-39e2633162d5
11 Sep 2016 - New Age, an Africa-focused oil explorer backed by Och-Ziff, the US hedge fund ... on the matter, marking the first firm step towards a stock market listing. ... Vitol, the oil trading company, Kerogen, an energy-focused investment ...
is approx what we have in cash; doing my head in this share now
big dipper yesterday
If, as has been suggested there are drill problems, would they be required to tell us?
Not given up hope yet....another 100k(45+55)at 29p avg although not showing on trades here
Absolute dog shite of a share!! Feel sorry for all the investors here including myself. I will almost certainly never get my money back (my average is 112.3).. By far the most frustrating share I have ever invested in!
getting clogged on to much oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
this dog must be trading cash now. Cannot believe its dropped this low. I can hear BLVN barking cos it sure is one hell of a dog. Still holding average 45p. CoC will want to make some money out of this one way or another.
Report on Advfn of drill problem, dont know if anything in it but someone's reacted by selling
Well now in 20's someone must have dumped quite a few. I'm out a while ago. Tempted to get back in but watching for now.
be back into the 20's :((
long but interesting 3 months.
Never mind the ""thereafter"" I think I'll be in the ""hereafter"" before Bow comes good .......!!
Thanks Dougal - yes, I've probably misunderstood what was said. Somewhat confusing though - these were Eli's words: 'We hope that over the course of the next 2 to 3 weeks we can give you an update on the IE4 well - or perhaps even longer - and thereafter, communicate with you what the test results, and what the increment to the reserves there has been. And hopefully we'll have a clearer idea of what the development plan looks like for Etinde.' Does the last sentence refer to the 2 to 3 weeks period (or even longer); or to the 'thereafter' period? Who knows? Certainly not me.
Conference Call was on tuesday 21st Aug. In summary, at the end of call, we were told to expect an update in 2 to 3 weeks - of particular interest imo was what the development plan B may look like. So I'm expecting an RNS in the next few days - and perhaps a strong share price movement if a pragmatic solution brings the monetisation-period forward.
have painting going on where I work, I am going to sit and watch it as its better than looking at this!!
Certainly not interesting at the moment, never known it as quiet in all the years I've been holding