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*investor focused
My eyes have gone to £&?k!
GLA
AIB are a better bank than BOI and should produce better results, always have been invested focused and would not be surprised to see a materially higher return than our old FKIR.
GLA
Rinse Boi's results and repeat, John. Bet AIB won't fall like BOI but what do I know.? SFA.
Newcrest Mining's Telfer gold operation could be sold to Greatland Gold, the gold giant's junior partner in the nearby Havieron deposit.
Sold my last few shares yesterday 8.50euros - It will fall under 8euros and stay under very soon eventually 7.30euros after the income dividend the share price will tank so waste of time i was only after growth from the start. wake up smell the coffee johnhume all looks not to bad on paper but its going down, AIB strong sell. Even before the results i did not like the chart for the past few months it was a warning my mistake then that friday up to 9.12euros last bit of breath that has haunt me!
Operat profits= 1.95 Bn
Distrb= 625mill.
Share buy back = 500 mill.
Barclays drop BIRG TP to 10.90 (12.8).
Steady as she goes?
The plan appears to spend €5M a day on buybacks. I suppose this allows for the best bang for buck on the buybacks, but it’s not really going to move the dial with the SP.
GLA
Interesting to see that AIB now just about back at their 12 month high while BIRG are about 20% off their's
Are people expecting strong AIB figures on wednesday ! Any predictions on pbt figure.
Hi Silverhorse...you are usually on the ball with your gut feeling approach. Is 4 euro your buy back price? regards and thank you fir taking time to consider my query.
Don't believe all you read . received email from Simply wall street" saying BIRG shareholding being substantially diluted.
emailed BOI Investor relations who confirm other s/h in touch about this Investor relations already in touch SWS who apologise for the error.
I expect investor relations will also be in touch with the Donkey concerning misrepresentation.
I feel this will fall around 7.40euros even lower inside a week or less. The buyback is great BUT blackrock is selling so NO support, Ask yourself is it worth holding for a dividend looks good 60cent now but when the share price is 6euros whats the point. Goodluck all. waiting now for the next market crash it will come for certain , target here 4euros
All. I will be running a Q&A on friday 8pm to 9pn. All questions open re BOI shares or my background or general chit chat. Regards
Doomster,
surely you are not surprised. You came on board, lavishing your praise on BIRG and, as posted,that was the death knell of BIRG.
you are well aware of your negative correlation with the market.when you are up the market gone in direct opposite direction.
Johnhume said 27/6/23:
"very confident will see €11 by y/e or early new year."
Fair point about growth. The increased profit has come from the gap widening between wholesale and retail money. From what I can see management predicted a decrease in NIM of 5 % which would reduce PBT by about 180mn but the current share buyback and a reduction in bad debt provision would easily cancel out that effect on future dividends and I allowed for a reduction from the 2023 dividend 1.1 euro to 1 euro. It would be a very poor look and surprising if the board recommended any reduction in dividend going forward. What correlation between dividend and share price do you think is appropriate for Birg
My interpretation of future dividends is that management are saying it will 40% of PAT as cash and then flexibility on the surplus up to 60% flexibility that says to me next year 76c (at 40% payout) plus anywhere from 0 to 38c per As the year is €1.1 per share I would be surprised if management go below that number
Observe,
also only fair to post that going from 1.1bn to 1.9bn PBT in 12 months is not exactly standing still. If the 23 figures incorporated the identical 22 bad debt reserve provision the 23 PBT figure just about doubled the 22 figure.
Observe
No doubt but growth is essential for SP to flourish. However a 10% share buy back will definitely make a difference and will compensate to some extent that growth that BIRG may lack. Ryanair prove this.
Should BIRG maintain a div of 60c plus ,and I see no reason why they cannot do so, then this will be in big demand from a dividend pay out alone - at €10 it is a 6% yield and nobody will walk away from this when the alternative is 1.75% with plenty of T & C attached.
UK Banks not setting the world on fire for a long time . Barclays p/e ratio is 6.02, Lloyds is 6.09 and BIRG is 5.49 assuming SP of 8.22.
Trudemill,
an interesting point which may come into play later in the year is that a buy back of 10% of the share issue was approved at last AGM ( 108mill shares approx ) with buy back to be completed by mid december 2024. €520million of this buy back commenced yesterday (453,000) and such a rate of buy back will ensure this is completed in about 135 trading days or sometime in august. Will the balance of the approved buy back continue post 2024H1 results through to mid december which would result in s/holding of c 950million.
As regards future dividends BIRG have confirmed a max payout ratio of 40% which they met this year - PAT =1601million.
You appear to be equating buy back with div. A max pay out ratio of 40% will limit divs to 60/70c for near term future unless profits take off.70c div = PAT of 1.755Bn = 2.2Bn PBT.
The share buy back must affect the SP as there are less shares in issue so sp must rise. 3 kids get more out of same inheritance than 4 !
I agree SP is undervalued on fundamentals . SP was up to €11 in February/march 2023 when annual profits of 1.1Bn announced - now 1.9Bn announced. If AIB results positive on wed should see a bounce. If not ..
Agree that SP will just roll along over the summer after div pay out.
@ Trudemill
Your analysis did not mention the word growth once. Without the purchase of the KBC loan book in 2023, BIRG would have showed negative loan growth of E7.7 billion. With KBC in they showed growth of E300m. They also appear to be exiting the UK market, so no future growth from there. For all intends and purposes they are not permitted to spread their wings into other markets outside of Ireland.
Management point out that the call on PBT in 2024 is down on 2023. That changes all your smart ratios!
If your number on NAV at 0.8 is correct then best look at where European Banking is trading on this ratio. 0.65????
Ex growth is not a good space to be in. You may pass go and collect dividends in the future but you can kiss the SP goodbye.
My opinion is that this little fkir has been undervalued for 10 years at this stage and I don't know why. After that set of results in a normal world the share should have jumped 20 - 33%, instead it slid 10% based on not making expectation of 2 bn PBT and high bad debt charge of 400 mn. Currently on a valuation of 4.6 times PBT or 5.6 earnings or 80% of Net Asset Value. A capital ratio of 14.3% and all factors in its favour economy, monopoly, demographics etc.
When this share buy back is complete that will contribute about 7/8 c per share to next years distribution and assuming a distribution of 1.2 bn in cash dividend we are looking at €1.20 dividend per share. Historically a good dividend yield is 5% but for arguements sake say 8% as ECB interest rates are now 4.5% that should mean in a normal world the share price would be €15 minimum at an 8% yield or upto €24 at a 5% yield. Reducing next years dividend to €1 per share moves these share prices to €12.50 at the low end to €20 at the high end.
The cash element of this years dividend is 60 c puts the range at €7.50 to €12. I believe the share buyback won't affect the shareprice this year. Expected ex dividend date of early May as per last year should see the trading range move to the higher end as we approach early May followed by doldrums until next Jan and then bring out the Boli
Please give me good reasons why the above opinion is wrong and what will derail it. Of course we have all watched the market manipulation of fkir and shouldn't expect anything different. From my perspective the only potential black cloud is if there is a further share buyback in 2025.
Leave is alone John.hume. I feel bullied
In yesterday’s Business Post interview Myles O Grady said as much, ECB rates gone up by 4.5%, but BOI rates only up by 1.75%. Drops in the ECB rates are not going to be mirrored by BOI as they did not follow them up.
GLA
Agree - this return to very low rates is going to be slower than the market has anticipated
Or at todays price -8.30 less 60 cent dividend this year ( and almost certain minimum same next year - as that is guidance for 2024 ) so that’s 7.10 less 6-10% share buyback ! That we will have a company making 2 billion at a PE of about 3-1. !! Insane but true
Following my gut as well and ignoring brokers and their bs.