Member Info for Trudemill

Next date of note for this slowly developing gem is July 29th ... Interim results annoucement.

In 2024 shareholders got a total of 95 cents per share in dividends in two tranches 60c and 35c. Given that shareholders got 28c per share last week for 2024 results should we now expect a similar interim dividend of 30c or could management go all out and issue a 70c dividend per share.

Hopefully then Myles will let the market know the Buyback is complete.

If shareholders had got the €560m buyback as cash dividend we'd be looking at a decent dividend of 80 c per share which would create the space for a share price of €16 euro. If the management present some visibilty on their intention around how they are going to divvy up 2025 earnings it could spell a very rosy period ahead for our little fkir.

Interesting to see that the shareprice did not drop after ex dividend date. Should the shareprice continuesin this vain with a positive agm where Myles indicate s the buyback policy post 2025 could see this share move solidly up to mid teens. And with the wind of peace in Trump tariff land and irish economic growth looking at 3% plus a solid BUY. But if the buyback policy continues as is we are close to high water market as the final cash dividend yield will be below 3% at current price. It is to early for bank to indicate if an interim dividend will be paid out towards the end of 2025. H1 results will be needed before that.

Despite 9% of the issued share capital being canabilised the shareprice is still stubbornly low relative to its value. In my opinion this is because shareholders want tangible cash dividends not buybacks. The buyback has failed year in year out to deliver shareholder value. From the 2024 accounts there was a billion that could have been comfortably distributed to shareholders but today the dividend distribution is €275m. Even taking in last Octobers distribution of €350m that still is only €625m. Consider that the buyback program is €560m was given as a cash dividend that allows for an all cash dividend of €1.18 per share (1.003 billion shares) If the cash dividend was even 1 euro at a very high dividend yield of 5% that would give a sharevalue of €20 per share. The Directors of the bank are shortchanging the shareholders with this buyback. With the AGM on May 22nd will the Directors take note.

28 c per share goes ex Dividend May 1st. Will be interesting to see share volatility over nest 2 weeks.

Recent price drop is following trend of the last 15 years fall on good news and rise on bad news. Price manipulation is rife in Birg but at this moment the price drop is favourable as the share buy back continues with about 13 million shares left to buy.

The interim dividend is an excellent move. Regulatory approval would have been required and it demonstrates that birg is well capitalised. 2023 final dividend was 60c and then the share buyback. With profit circa 2 bn and the less shares in issue I see the final dividend to be announced in 6 months time to be 65 c on top of the 35c interim dividend already announced. Any challenge to this number management should decide to reduce next years buyback.

If you agree with that buy now at 9.30 and wait for a 12% dividend yield in in ten months.

Tell me why I'm wrong about my speculation on the dividend.

Fair point about growth. The increased profit has come from the gap widening between wholesale and retail money. From what I can see management predicted a decrease in NIM of 5 % which would reduce PBT by about 180mn but the current share buyback and a reduction in bad debt provision would easily cancel out that effect on future dividends and I allowed for a reduction from the 2023 dividend 1.1 euro to 1 euro. It would be a very poor look and surprising if the board recommended any reduction in dividend going forward. What correlation between dividend and share price do you think is appropriate for Birg

My interpretation of future dividends is that management are saying it will 40% of PAT as cash and then flexibility on the surplus up to 60% flexibility that says to me next year 76c (at 40% payout) plus anywhere from 0 to 38c per As the year is €1.1 per share I would be surprised if management go below that number

My opinion is that this little fkir has been undervalued for 10 years at this stage and I don't know why. After that set of results in a normal world the share should have jumped 20 - 33%, instead it slid 10% based on not making expectation of 2 bn PBT and high bad debt charge of 400 mn. Currently on a valuation of 4.6 times PBT or 5.6 earnings or 80% of Net Asset Value. A capital ratio of 14.3% and all factors in its favour economy, monopoly, demographics etc.

When this share buy back is complete that will contribute about 7/8 c per share to next years distribution and assuming a distribution of 1.2 bn in cash dividend we are looking at €1.20 dividend per share. Historically a good dividend yield is 5% but for arguements sake say 8% as ECB interest rates are now 4.5% that should mean in a normal world the share price would be €15 minimum at an 8% yield or upto €24 at a 5% yield. Reducing next years dividend to €1 per share moves these share prices to €12.50 at the low end to €20 at the high end.

The cash element of this years dividend is 60 c puts the range at €7.50 to €12. I believe the share buyback won't affect the shareprice this year. Expected ex dividend date of early May as per last year should see the trading range move to the higher end as we approach early May followed by doldrums until next Jan and then bring out the Boli

Please give me good reasons why the above opinion is wrong and what will derail it. Of course we have all watched the market manipulation of fkir and shouldn't expect anything different. From my perspective the only potential black cloud is if there is a further share buyback in 2025.

It would DROP 20 % if profit of 3bn announced

It would GAIN 20 % if loss of 3bn announced

Only the dividend will move this catastrophy

With PBT of over 2 bn, a capital ratio better than the vast majority of banks, operating in a duopoly, a stellar NIM and book value per share 10.5 but still a dog of a share. With all this EPS looks to almost double from 0.87 per share to 1.6 per share. Management must look to dividend to move this share on. Buyback was too conservative and has not produced value for shareholders. Third quarter statement should be used to shed some light on future dividend policy and introduction of an interim dividend. Cash dividend could triple from 21c to 63c. A share price of €12.50 demonstrates a more accurate value than this miserable €9.20. Myles are you listening.......

Big ask but last year was 10 c if you include buy back and was still miserable should have been 15-20 c. Now with govt out as a shareholder and a "normal" bank 30-50% of EPS is .... normal

EPS conservatively 80 c, 30% of 80 cents is 24 c
EPS optimistically 100c 50 % of 100 c is 50 c
I am looking for a 33 c dividend otherwise share price should tank

Net asset value per share is €8.30, why target so low at €6.80 Currently priced at less than 5 times earning

There were 9,339 new mortgage drawdowns with a total value of over €2 billion in the three months to June, latest figures from the Banking & Payments Federation (BPFI) show.

This represents a 16.8% rise in volume terms and a 22.2% increase with regard to value, when compared with the second quarter last year.

How much did fkir get of this ?

Still blocked below the �8. What is holding birg down

That market cap should have been euro not pounds

AIB Market cap is �14.4 billion while BIRG Market Cap after the recent run is �8.4 billion. I do not understand why AIB is valued at 14 times P/E while BIRG is 8 times P/E. These figures will converge over the next couple of year. Roll on 26th Feb What is the best estimate of earnings for this old Fkir/new Bugger

Based on an average mortgage size of 250k, If these numbers are the full picture it's a liability of circa �7m plus compo to the bank. Even if the compo is another �7m the bank has set aside �25m to cover this. While it looks bad in the media it won't impact the bottom line in any meaningful way. Discuss