Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Fair point about growth. The increased profit has come from the gap widening between wholesale and retail money. From what I can see management predicted a decrease in NIM of 5 % which would reduce PBT by about 180mn but the current share buyback and a reduction in bad debt provision would easily cancel out that effect on future dividends and I allowed for a reduction from the 2023 dividend 1.1 euro to 1 euro. It would be a very poor look and surprising if the board recommended any reduction in dividend going forward. What correlation between dividend and share price do you think is appropriate for Birg
My interpretation of future dividends is that management are saying it will 40% of PAT as cash and then flexibility on the surplus up to 60% flexibility that says to me next year 76c (at 40% payout) plus anywhere from 0 to 38c per As the year is €1.1 per share I would be surprised if management go below that number
My opinion is that this little fkir has been undervalued for 10 years at this stage and I don't know why. After that set of results in a normal world the share should have jumped 20 - 33%, instead it slid 10% based on not making expectation of 2 bn PBT and high bad debt charge of 400 mn. Currently on a valuation of 4.6 times PBT or 5.6 earnings or 80% of Net Asset Value. A capital ratio of 14.3% and all factors in its favour economy, monopoly, demographics etc.
When this share buy back is complete that will contribute about 7/8 c per share to next years distribution and assuming a distribution of 1.2 bn in cash dividend we are looking at €1.20 dividend per share. Historically a good dividend yield is 5% but for arguements sake say 8% as ECB interest rates are now 4.5% that should mean in a normal world the share price would be €15 minimum at an 8% yield or upto €24 at a 5% yield. Reducing next years dividend to €1 per share moves these share prices to €12.50 at the low end to €20 at the high end.
The cash element of this years dividend is 60 c puts the range at €7.50 to €12. I believe the share buyback won't affect the shareprice this year. Expected ex dividend date of early May as per last year should see the trading range move to the higher end as we approach early May followed by doldrums until next Jan and then bring out the Boli
Please give me good reasons why the above opinion is wrong and what will derail it. Of course we have all watched the market manipulation of fkir and shouldn't expect anything different. From my perspective the only potential black cloud is if there is a further share buyback in 2025.
With PBT of over 2 bn, a capital ratio better than the vast majority of banks, operating in a duopoly, a stellar NIM and book value per share 10.5 but still a dog of a share. With all this EPS looks to almost double from 0.87 per share to 1.6 per share. Management must look to dividend to move this share on. Buyback was too conservative and has not produced value for shareholders. Third quarter statement should be used to shed some light on future dividend policy and introduction of an interim dividend. Cash dividend could triple from 21c to 63c. A share price of €12.50 demonstrates a more accurate value than this miserable €9.20. Myles are you listening.......
There were 9,339 new mortgage drawdowns with a total value of over €2 billion in the three months to June, latest figures from the Banking & Payments Federation (BPFI) show.
This represents a 16.8% rise in volume terms and a 22.2% increase with regard to value, when compared with the second quarter last year.
How much did fkir get of this ?
AIB Market cap is �14.4 billion while BIRG Market Cap after the recent run is �8.4 billion. I do not understand why AIB is valued at 14 times P/E while BIRG is 8 times P/E. These figures will converge over the next couple of year. Roll on 26th Feb What is the best estimate of earnings for this old Fkir/new Bugger
Based on an average mortgage size of 250k, If these numbers are the full picture it's a liability of circa �7m plus compo to the bank. Even if the compo is another �7m the bank has set aside �25m to cover this. While it looks bad in the media it won't impact the bottom line in any meaningful way. Discuss