Beazley Share Chat (BEZ)

Nice to se a price target today of 410p and an upgrade to BUY.

Likewise, this is a great trader for me and hey lets hope that today's upgrade is well researched as 410 would be nice.

SOCGEN RAISES PETROFAC TO 'BUY' ('HOLD') - TARGET 167 (107) PENCE

Nick, with insurance there is a lot of estimates involving the final loss ratio's as much of AFB's business is longer tail so the results are not fully known for a few years. It will also depend on investment returns in the current period.
Having said that some of AFB's classes are experiencing rates increases well above 10% which bodes well.
On a downside note I saw their ex head marine underwriter Clive Washbourn has set up in competition with them which will not be good news and this was once the star team in their portfolio. However I bought more shares twice today as it dropped.

i'm in again today as well.

Will Beazley be hit by the Suez Caal blockage claims? The blockage caused by the grounding of the Ever Given held up an estimated $400 million per hour in international trade. Insurers are expected to cover up to $100 million.Tags:Suez Canal, Egypt, Ever Given
Reinsurers could be looking at costs running into hundreds of millions of dollars following the wedging of a vessel in the Suez Canal, which halted international trade for nearly a week.
Ships typically have protection and indemnity (P&I) insurance covering third party liability claims, including environmental damage and injury.

Alan Mackinnon, chief claims officer with UK Club, the Ever Given’s P&I insurer, told Reuters it expected a claim against the ship’s owner from the canal authorities for possible damage to the canal and for loss of revenues.

"I expect we will get a claim from the Egyptian authorities quite soon and the claims from the other shipowners will trickle in over the coming months," Mackinnon told Reuters.

The blockage held up an estimated $400 million per hour in international trade, according to the German insurer Allianz.

The UK Club will cover the first $10 million of P&I losses while the wider pool of P&I insurers will cover up to $100 million. Reinsurers such as Lloyd’s of London could face up to $2.1 billion of claims.

"This is not an existential moment for the P&I sector. It may be a large claim, but we are structured to deal with large claims,"

Suez Canal Authority chairman Osama Rabie said earlier this month that the exact amount would be calculated after an investigation was conducted, but gave no indication as to when the process would be completed.

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2021/4/9/suez-canal-blockage-to-weigh-heavily-on-reinsurers

I doubled ny holding here today. Expecting good things ahead. Invested as a core holding. Hopefully not too soon.

Beazley have nearly doubled their revenue each year from $1,787m in 2015 to $2,911m in 2020 and forecast $3,736m in 2021.

Significant year on year revenue growth.

Made first net loss in 2020 of $46.1 in 2020. Forecast to make $244m profit in 2021. All previous years were profitable other than 2020. Note, 2019 was $234m net profit.

14 brokers estimates- 7 hold, 5 buy, 3 strong buy.

Was 600p before pandemic in Feb 2020.
Once we break the 365-380p resistance, next test 450p. Then up to 500p.

Think if Q1 update shows we are on the track we will start to see upwards momentum return.

Small initial exploratory position and will start to add when recovery comes.

Forgive me I'm not 100% familiar with the insurance terminology so I would appreciate any assistance from those in the know... Bez's gross written premium (turnover) in 2020 was £3.6bn. They are (according to the latest financials) expecting double digit rate increases on average in 2021 across their product lines, which would take it to £4bn.
The financials also say they expect a combined loss ratio in the 'low 90s%' for 2021, let's say 93% for arguments sake, giving them 7% profit on £4bn = £280bn profit before tax. The current market cap is £2.077bn meaning that forward profit/ earnings are just over 7 which seems very cheap.

Appreciate there a few ifs and buts there, but am I missing something?

These end of day 1m/2m/5m sales / purchases have been going on for ages, I wonder who is selling them as this must be what is keeping the price down.

MaryBr, not sure why this is so lonely but not much enthusiasm.
I will be going in again at 335 for 20k on the CFD's but will be out again at 350. I know I should keep some for the long term but i cannot help but cash these in right now when in profit as they seem to keep drifting back down
And that is even with the 1m or 2m purchase at the end of each day.

Sound company, in recovery phase, will buy at 340 (started) - sub 330 sub 313 sub 300 (should they get there)
Current average sub £2.95.

I do not trade this much buy I aim for £10k shares sub £2 initially.

GL me.

It is a lonely board :)

Like the look of this company. Some real strong points such as:
Well known brand name in the insurance world.
All Insurers (including Beazley) are currently pushing through rate rises across most lines, but especially PI and Management Liability where Beazley are strong.
Strong relationships with large brokers such as Aon.
Not afraid to exit certain lines e.g. loss making regional UK marine book.
Exposure to growing classes of insurance e.g. cyber, M&A etc.
2020 loss not as much as feared.
19% increase in GWP in 2020
Return of events in 2021 which will need insuring.
Wide margin of safety as still 30% below 2019 high.
Return of divi likely in the future.

I agree, although that isn't a large part of AFB's book but market-wide rate increases are large, almost up to the levels after 9.11.
With Platinum building a stake I don't know why this share is not a lot stronger, I think it will be in the long run. However, I generally just buy the dips and trade out, probably as it has become a profitable habit as I should really buy to keep.
Interesting that IG have closed down Hiscox amongst their small cap cut back of volatile shares and left Beazley running when Hiscox is almost twice the size.

With the markets buoyant in the hospitality and Travel sector following the final lockdown exit strategy, doesn't that de-risk things for Beasley at a time when premiums are being paid to insure against said event and make the chance of future profits even bigger and rosier or am I missing something?

Well that Director's sell certainly went down well with the market!

Every day there is an end of day UT with a 1 or 2m pound buy / sell which does look like someone is slowly building up a stake here.
AFB is a great company and is nearing its 300p low, so providing they don't have a problem in their annual results due out next week, either from further contingency losses, or cyber ransomware that could cause a gap down, I at least will be topping up.

In the FTSE 100, insurers were among the better performers early Friday. Aviva rose 3.9%, M&G climbed and Prudential were both 1.9% higher. The trio benefited from a positive read across from mid-cap peer Beazley, which itself rose 1.2%.

Beazley posted a rise in gross premiums written after its third quarter of trading. In the nine months ended September 30, gross written premiums surged 16% year-on-year to USD2.53 billion. Beazley said it has seen growth in almost all of its divisions.

Looking ahead, Beazley said Covid-19 related claims may climb by USD50 million should there not be a return to "some form of normality" in the second half of 2021. Back in September, it said its claims estimate for Covid-19 was USD340 million net of reinsurance, which it kept in place on Thursday. Beazley said it expects third-quarter catastrophe claims to be USD80 million net of reinsurance.

Beazley gross premiums rise 16%
Fri, 6th Nov 2020 07:02
(Sharecast News) - Global insurer Beazley said gross written premiums rose 16% in the year to date driven by rate increases across all its divisions.
The company on Friday said premiums for the nine months to September 30 came in at $2.5bn, compared with £2.19bn a year earlier.

"Our initial estimate of the costs of the third quarter catastrophe events including hurricanes Laura and Sally and the wildfires in California is approximately $80m net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums," Beazley said.

This is one or my longer term buys. The Syndicate will have Reinsurance in place to cover losses over a certain amount of their retention and then will benefit after the pandemic has long gone with higher premiums to recover the losses paid out. If they were unaware of this type of loss (i.e. business interruption by disease) then this will be rated in future for those who have it but who did not even think of it before. They will in time do very well out of this I am sure. The other thing is they will have paid out less for other types of losses. I.e. Some of their biggest losses would have been with aircraft crashes. How many are flying now?

Just spotted the opening trade @ 558 .
There can be only one reason for opening it there and that is to attempt to knock out stop losses and pick up more shares on the cheap. They patently failed .
The blatant manipulation that occurs in the " free and fair " FTSE is something to behold.

in conjunction with a ( very convenient ?) broker downgrade have added to their short near the recent top , so it is very possible that this will make a swift recovery as they buy back to take profit.
A divi is also coming up which should add to any impetus .

This should keep going IMHO -just like Admiral Syndicate at Lloyd's did. They obviously are writing a selective prime book of business here and benefitting from the rest of the Lloyd's market rate increases whilst having a very efficient premium investment team for income as well as sound Reinsurance/protecting their own book. The business they are in if more of the Reinsurance type will not have Large claims appear for a good couple of years - so make the most of the premium income. Problems is the results are so good they like many other Lloyd's syndicates before them are really now liable for a take over . So we will have a run to a far higher level for a while yet in my opinion.

Im out i love BEZ lol

Have crept in again !!!
That makes this a stonking buy IMHO.
I have re bought today, made some lovely money with BEZ. this year, one last punt and a special divi will see me HAPPY LOL

So I assume some broker has tipped this. Fairly beaten down of late and unfairly so imo. A very good buying opportunity with 10% upside possible.