Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Great trading update; happy days
"We have had a positive start to the year with good rate momentum that is well ahead of our expectations as well as continued strong targeted growth. We expect favourable market conditions to continue and are well positioned to take advantage of them given our capital surplus remains within our preferred range."
Looks undervalued and has taken a position.
Have we any idea whether Beazley will be exposed to the cyber attack on the US pipeline shutdown?
And I cannot work out wo sells £1m or £2m, occasionally £5m every day on this share?
There is still a five year tail on claims made business before you really know your actual number. Having said that AFB have some stop loss reinsurances, at least for cyber, so these will firm up the position a lot earlier.
Expect it to retest £3.90 - £4 next week.
LRE
HSX
BEZ is a star attraction here too
Edit: just seen the HSX update. 13% rate increase in Lloyds which bodes well for BEZ.
BEZ Q1 trading update on 13 May 2021.
The market definitely ties these two share together as peers in the specialty insurance market.
I actually think that BEZ is in a much better place than HSX. BEZ is expecting to return to profit this year, HSX not till 2023.
The most interesting aspect will be what sort of rate increases Hiscox are pushing through. I expect they will have managed big increases (10-15% on average) on cyber, PI and Management Liability renewals. If BEZ can replicate that then we will be in a strong position.
Hiscox Q1 Statement tomorrow. Be interested to see how they fair from a segment perspective.
Swanny, thanks for the reply. I guess it must be hard to forecast loss ratios when a lot of liability claims are not reported for a while after they happen. Plus a lot of their policies (PI, management liability etc) are issued on a claims made basis rather than claims occurring.
Nice rise today on the back of the broker upgrade. I still think this is undervalued
Nice to se a price target today of 410p and an upgrade to BUY.
Likewise, this is a great trader for me and hey lets hope that today's upgrade is well researched as 410 would be nice.
SOCGEN RAISES PETROFAC TO 'BUY' ('HOLD') - TARGET 167 (107) PENCE
Nick, with insurance there is a lot of estimates involving the final loss ratio's as much of AFB's business is longer tail so the results are not fully known for a few years. It will also depend on investment returns in the current period.
Having said that some of AFB's classes are experiencing rates increases well above 10% which bodes well.
On a downside note I saw their ex head marine underwriter Clive Washbourn has set up in competition with them which will not be good news and this was once the star team in their portfolio. However I bought more shares twice today as it dropped.
i'm in again today as well.
Will Beazley be hit by the Suez Caal blockage claims? The blockage caused by the grounding of the Ever Given held up an estimated $400 million per hour in international trade. Insurers are expected to cover up to $100 million.Tags:Suez Canal, Egypt, Ever Given
Reinsurers could be looking at costs running into hundreds of millions of dollars following the wedging of a vessel in the Suez Canal, which halted international trade for nearly a week.
Ships typically have protection and indemnity (P&I) insurance covering third party liability claims, including environmental damage and injury.
Alan Mackinnon, chief claims officer with UK Club, the Ever Given’s P&I insurer, told Reuters it expected a claim against the ship’s owner from the canal authorities for possible damage to the canal and for loss of revenues.
"I expect we will get a claim from the Egyptian authorities quite soon and the claims from the other shipowners will trickle in over the coming months," Mackinnon told Reuters.
The blockage held up an estimated $400 million per hour in international trade, according to the German insurer Allianz.
The UK Club will cover the first $10 million of P&I losses while the wider pool of P&I insurers will cover up to $100 million. Reinsurers such as Lloyd’s of London could face up to $2.1 billion of claims.
"This is not an existential moment for the P&I sector. It may be a large claim, but we are structured to deal with large claims,"
Suez Canal Authority chairman Osama Rabie said earlier this month that the exact amount would be calculated after an investigation was conducted, but gave no indication as to when the process would be completed.
https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2021/4/9/suez-canal-blockage-to-weigh-heavily-on-reinsurers
I doubled ny holding here today. Expecting good things ahead. Invested as a core holding. Hopefully not too soon.
Beazley have nearly doubled their revenue each year from $1,787m in 2015 to $2,911m in 2020 and forecast $3,736m in 2021.
Significant year on year revenue growth.
Made first net loss in 2020 of $46.1 in 2020. Forecast to make $244m profit in 2021. All previous years were profitable other than 2020. Note, 2019 was $234m net profit.
14 brokers estimates- 7 hold, 5 buy, 3 strong buy.
Was 600p before pandemic in Feb 2020.
Once we break the 365-380p resistance, next test 450p. Then up to 500p.
Think if Q1 update shows we are on the track we will start to see upwards momentum return.
Small initial exploratory position and will start to add when recovery comes.
Forgive me I'm not 100% familiar with the insurance terminology so I would appreciate any assistance from those in the know... Bez's gross written premium (turnover) in 2020 was £3.6bn. They are (according to the latest financials) expecting double digit rate increases on average in 2021 across their product lines, which would take it to £4bn.
The financials also say they expect a combined loss ratio in the 'low 90s%' for 2021, let's say 93% for arguments sake, giving them 7% profit on £4bn = £280bn profit before tax. The current market cap is £2.077bn meaning that forward profit/ earnings are just over 7 which seems very cheap.
Appreciate there a few ifs and buts there, but am I missing something?
These end of day 1m/2m/5m sales / purchases have been going on for ages, I wonder who is selling them as this must be what is keeping the price down.
MaryBr, not sure why this is so lonely but not much enthusiasm.
I will be going in again at 335 for 20k on the CFD's but will be out again at 350. I know I should keep some for the long term but i cannot help but cash these in right now when in profit as they seem to keep drifting back down
And that is even with the 1m or 2m purchase at the end of each day.
Sound company, in recovery phase, will buy at 340 (started) - sub 330 sub 313 sub 300 (should they get there)
Current average sub £2.95.
I do not trade this much buy I aim for £10k shares sub £2 initially.
GL me.
It is a lonely board :)
Like the look of this company. Some real strong points such as:
Well known brand name in the insurance world.
All Insurers (including Beazley) are currently pushing through rate rises across most lines, but especially PI and Management Liability where Beazley are strong.
Strong relationships with large brokers such as Aon.
Not afraid to exit certain lines e.g. loss making regional UK marine book.
Exposure to growing classes of insurance e.g. cyber, M&A etc.
2020 loss not as much as feared.
19% increase in GWP in 2020
Return of events in 2021 which will need insuring.
Wide margin of safety as still 30% below 2019 high.
Return of divi likely in the future.
I agree, although that isn't a large part of AFB's book but market-wide rate increases are large, almost up to the levels after 9.11.
With Platinum building a stake I don't know why this share is not a lot stronger, I think it will be in the long run. However, I generally just buy the dips and trade out, probably as it has become a profitable habit as I should really buy to keep.
Interesting that IG have closed down Hiscox amongst their small cap cut back of volatile shares and left Beazley running when Hiscox is almost twice the size.
With the markets buoyant in the hospitality and Travel sector following the final lockdown exit strategy, doesn't that de-risk things for Beasley at a time when premiums are being paid to insure against said event and make the chance of future profits even bigger and rosier or am I missing something?
Well that Director's sell certainly went down well with the market!