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I'm sure this is true. When people commit fraud on investments they often rely on the 'oh well once bitten I'll move on' factor. But I think people have got the bit between the teeth on this one, I wish I could see into the future and say "was Secker culpable after all" !!
Hi John, I think my fatigue is with the whole process and the bod. Be nicer when everyone’s cards on table and it’s all a little more clearer or “honest” let’s say.
I would have much larger fatigue at the prospect this goes through and I’d be sat there waiting for China approval and processes!
Atm it’s all very interesting for me, I like optionality good and had. We’ve got loads here.
I don’t think some people appreciate how much hard work Dee has done and how time consuming that has been. I owe him a few pints for at least trying.
I was wondering about trying to be smart and do you look at Henderson and m&g, the respective funds and performance, fund flows etc.
Henderson as an 45p investor make 50% ytd…m&g barely break even on ytd performance so I really think they would be unwise to sell with the backing they have from pi. They are in strongest position of us all.
Yes, not going anywhere! I have sold the remainder of my Vectura today, when a bid was announced there about 3 weeks back the SP went to a premium as a counter bid was widely predicted. Its sunk since, and think I'd rather only have one thing to worry about!
@johnpwh
Fatigue is part of their plan.
Personally, I use this time to put a few pieces of the puzzle into place, and fully prepare for our next move.
@johnpwh
That's their plan. To make you fatigued.
That's why we've staggered part of the email campaign, and done everything to reduce the workload for you all.
Personally, I'm using this time to fully map out our next course of action, and pre-prepare all that's required.
Foz & other posters
If its confirmed at 67.5 I would expect a couple of pence rise to low 60s until likely success or failure becomes clearer. Cant really approach 67.5p due to the likely time period until the moneys are paid if the bid succeeds (6 months plus). Bid and rejection might be quite fun and supportive at around current levels, depending on how soon GF can come back with a new offer (both due to the hoops they have to go through with their masters and Regulatory considerations).
Lack of a bid by GF will send the shares down as there is no other avenue open (no other bid is likely with GF holding such a blocking vote at 28.8%), but not as far as 40p - although that figure is possible as it may be perceived that something unpleasant was found in the corner of the broom cupboard during due diligence to even make the current derisory proposed bid.
All IMO. Don't know about you lot but I'm getting BCN fatigue.
Mr C yeah maybe, but again I think if it shoots right to 67.5p & that's actually pricing in a rejection to deal and subsequent higher offer to possibly follow?
Otherwise everyone would be dumping at 64-5+ and would fall straight back down?
AS you said prob goes suspended before that.
I'd be surprised Ganfeng would go hostile and try mop up shares at this point to then trigger a mandatory bid unless likes of M&G and Henderson and co offer them their shares at 67.5p but would be a naĂŻve move on all parties.
Still think ton of optionality, just sort of looking forward to getting it out the way now rather than speculating! It interesting to see China's latest campaign to rein in commodity prices, can't let them get too high when you are trying to buy the worlds controlling stakes in Lithium....
Fozdog - whilst I am very very anti-this deal I think if it were announced the SP would go straight to 67.5p unless it was suspended, thus allowing some to dump..
There are always risks and it comes back to why you are buying.
My personal view is that you buy here because you believe you believe there will be a firm bid and thus have a lot of optionality.
If it gets to firm bid which imo again seems likely (90%), then you have the upside if it goes through and are prepared to sit for 6-9 months.
If it doesn't and gets rejected (which is what im hoping for), then you have a collective long term shareholding group that believes in much deeper value here.
I also personally believe Ganfeng will come back with a higher price.
As a result of all of this BCN will also be much larger on people's roadmap than before and I think could go from strength to strength....With AMLO relaxing, Mexico concerns will ease and I think you see demand for these regions pick up.
Iv said this before, if you look at other lithium comps weve barely outperformed the likes of LAC even with Bid spec. Therefore I do not believe we pull back much past 50-55 (yes we might dip to 50p and rally from there) if Ganfeng bid 67.5p, it's rejected and that's their only bid.
The risk is they don't make a bid, again im pricing that best sub 5% and we would have more dramatic drop in short term.
The other concerns (im sure others who are short will jump on this) are that Ganfeng will slow down the mining/developing the asset - I do not believe they are petulant and I do not believe that is the case.
In my view they will seek to speed it up and increase production as quick as possible given they will only have 50% of the offtake. This is now in the news and someone else stepping in would be a serious thorn in Ganfeng side - one they don't want to risk imo. Therefore pushing on to production and increasing the SP to prevent others stepping in is both in ours and their interest.
All in all I think as long as you can hold a drop back to 50pish and not concerned as in this for longer term then as you said should be adding.
I completely agree, at the current price level I see little to no risk in buying right now.
If the deal goes through you make >10% in a year.
If it doesn't go through, you are invested in a very high quality asset, and sell price is likely to be higher than 67.5p.
Am I missing any downsides? If the deal falls through do BCN lose funding etc, which could collapse the price?
If the deal goes ahead at 67.5p, is that what every shareholder is guaranteed to get?
Confused what you are asking, You said if deal went through? If you are talking about what value this could be if deal doesn’t there’s a load of scenarios.
But if you are simply saying deal goes through, it’s all agreed and no competition issues or intervention too stop it, then it’s going to trade at circa 10% discount for me due to the time delay.
I actually think if we push on in coming week to low 60s and we are not too far from that now, that’s pricing a rejection and a subsequent higher price to come.
For me you have so many decent options here for upside and really only one downside that might take you back to low 50p. But most long term shareholders here can brush that off without any concern.
Yeah that makes sense. But if the deal fell through I feel that due to the quality of the asset that 67.5p would be a base level. I think I personally would take 15% over a year
It won’t be a quick 15%, the rns stated that for outward investments from China can take months. I read something about 8-9 months. Also you need to get to approval from U.K. regulator etc.
So if you are assuming 100% deal is agreed, approved and no hitches....you are prob looking to be sat on this at least till year end I would assume.
I just have a quick question about the potential buy out, if it goes ahead at 67.5p, will we all lose our shares and get the appropriate value from the sale?
If the takeover value is 67.5p, what is stopping someone buying loads of shares now and making a quick 15%?