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Good morning. I’m in absolutely no way a what you’d call investment savvy (I’m fairly clueless) however I’ve recently ploughed a fair bit of my SIPP into BCN based mainly on a punt that electric vehicles are most definitely the future and investment in battery technology or materials seems a fair way to go with my money. My average is around 30p and I’m happy now to let it ride(for years if I’m convinced the price will continue to climb)and see what happens. I guess what I’m unsure of is how do you know what the long term share price could potentially be? Do any of you guys have an opinion on this?
I am a complete amateur and I’ve definitely got lucky getting in at the time I have by the look of it, but I just thought I’d ask the question naive as it may be?
Many thanks
Why invest in a company that has effectively given away all their upside to a major? Read the releases. Ppl don’t seem to understand basics. There are other Li plays out there with much more upside they control themselves. BCN were desperate and Gangfeng took the opportunity. Clay still unproven and the German project is a non starter. Good luck
Give us some examples of junior miners who have got funding, sold their product and are shovel ready. There are plenty of companies out there who have completed a Pfs, but have yet to even start raising money, or get any pay or take contracts in place. I’m not talking about letters of intent or mou’s. It is agreed that Gangfeng have got an extremely good deal, but so have we for what they are bringing to the table. And we are still in control, not them.
We are not mining clay as you think. It’s a soft rock. Listen to some interviews by Peter Secker. It can be processed wet and does not clog up like the white coats of china. We have been providing samples to battery manufacturers for years. Hence the offtake agreements, so to say unproven Is wholly misleading.
Well done Trisse..that is the most inaccurate pathetic post we'll probably see this week...good luck with your other investments..BCN will be just fine without your £2K
Ultimately you have to look at the potential profit each year and multiply it by what factor you feel works going forward. A low multiple would be 7 or 8, high would be 15-20 (mainly reserved for high growth tech companies). Each milestone (financing, construction, commissioning, first production, continued long term uninterrupted production) will see BCN ‘step’ up in value. Between those hurdles should be a steady rise from after financing is secured. Pre-financing mining stocks are highly volatile because they can collapse to nothing with one bad RNS. Our first real long term valuation will come after year 1 of production. I’d roughly calculate profit x 10 to give ball park Mcap. We then have phase 2 and the construction process value steps will repeat. Crudely, costs are 4500 and from FS we plan to sell at 11000 (would be more currently but let’s jist say 11k). That’s a $6500 profit x 17500 tonnes = $113m x 10 = $1.3b or £1b. Now let’s assume we only keep 50% that’s £500m mcap as a base. Obviously got Zinnwald also and phase two 35k as potential future earnings which add value to this. Conservatively though that’s 10x current sp in 2 years. Long term investors will be the winners here.
Funding not really secured yet, you’ll still have additional capex commitments to fulfill at BCN level. You’ve given away 30 + 22 + maybe an additional 50 % of the one valuable asset you have. That said, you seem like a strong supporter crowd and that helps. Good luck...
Trisse,
Ganfeng wants to be the number one Global lithium supplier and were impressed with the quality and scalability of Sonora.
Trisse...funding is as good as secured..certainly much further advance than your pick - SAV,...there's a load of exploration companies out there that spend years doing just that - exploring. BCN is a monster battery grade lithium play, in prime position, easy to extract, close to port, with offtakes for as much as it can produce...it doesn't get much better. Those that think it's easy to get funding from the likes of Ganfeng are not in the real world...BCN will 3 bag from here in short order and if you want a 2/3 year 10 bagger, then this is the place to be. Sav will still be promising loads but in terms of actual production, be miles away...good bye
What’s the fully diluted post tax npv per share net to bcn? Gangfeng has 75 % of the upside. That makes those deals quite easy as they bought without premium and will buy without premium. Sonora economics not great but it’s big so could make sense. All good, for Gangfeng. Germany, not happening. Anyways. Agree to disagree, you have to listen to both sides.
Dobledee, oranges are not the only fruit! You can spread your risk across other lithium miners on AIM? I have made good profits on BCN by investing heavily at the bottom and taking profits as the price has risen. I still have a substantial investment but I have taken my original stake off the table. Suggest you take a look at SAV?
Sonara economics not great...as I sai...bye..GL at SAV, it has been and will be a long time coming
Trisse there are no sides, there are people who post based on facts and those who don’t. It is embarrassing to make unsupported statements like “Sonora economics not great” or “Germany not happening”. It is clear that the economics of Mexico are extremely favourable, and that Germany has serious and widely understood potential. atb
Sub 30 % IRR ( it sure if it’s pre or post tax) for Germany makes it really hard to finance. For a big project like Sonora it makes sense. It’s up to the financiers and not us. I’d rather take a low capex high IRR project. But that’s me.
Prob best to identify such a project and invest in it then, hope it goes well for you
From a traders POV this Looked prime for a drop after such a good rise over the last couple of weeks but the devil is in the detail and the detail here is loooking good! Gla
This is re-rating...sign off by Gangfeng this/next week...no time for a drop
Let's see, it went to around 34p on the morning of the announcement and now stands at 39.5p. I would think there's a lot of upside to be seen yet so no time for traders to get giddy.
Yes. The devil is in the detail. And as no one wants to run the numbers. Fully diluted (only counting Gangfeng, no warrants etc) pre tax npv net to bcn is 250musd. Apply 30 % tax and its 175mln usd. And for BCN being in control. Wouldn’t say that.. Bacanora has over 50 % of the project through 30+22.5 % and then - if they want to - an additional 27.5 % of the project. At no premium. That is key here. You are selling 80 % of the asset at no premium, fully dependent of your SP. On the flip side, GFL if anyone can see the project through and npv can go up/down with pricing and smart engineering. But 80 % of that goes to Gangfeng. Quite binary. If it’s good, they will use their options. If bad, well, it doesn’t matter.
We've had a few posters since the announcement of the deal shouting at the top of their voices with some shambles research to back them up. I wonder where they have all gone? Trisse will be the next one to completely disappear very soon
Yep as soon as he buys in
He has already disappeared..... into my filter bin.
NST
Trisse...you're like a cold caller than nobody wants to listen to. Why come on here if you're not invested? What does it matter to you? The only logic is it's a personal thing because you purchased high and sold before the uplift..in which case....tough lines. Your figures are wrong, your intentions are sad...go and get a life son
Or he's a shorter attempting to disrupt
Trisse has been a long term SAV cheerleader. After years of promises, those guys have thus far failed in Oman, failed in Mozambique and now trying their luck in Portugal.
All they seem to do is drill.
I'm currently holding some SAV but thankfully much more BCN. SP envy can be a terrible thing for the likes of Trisse.