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Didn't expect the SP to still be bouncing around this low so close to ex-divi.
Added to double my holding again this morning at SP 2677.
Current yield is circa 7.8%.
Hoping for a tidy exit before ex-divi, but if I end up holding for the divi so be it.
Yep, pretty much my strategy.
Use TA to intentify and trade in and out of trends / pattens in stable divi paying shares.
No I haven't traded IMB, still watching it, and waiting for a decent tradeable TA pattern to emerge post-ESG effect.
Reading through your posts you seem to follow similar stragies to me; sell on run up to XD banking on a larger fall that divi.
But sometimes getting 'trapped' & having to take the divi and wait/trade out of it.
Also, searching the chart for 'trends'.
This has been working ok for me for a while now. (tho get caught with BHP.....lol)
The 2,651 i mentioned was 'only' 18 trading day's ago, on 9 Aug. Although the closer we get to XD (30th) the less chance of that being revisited. Unless, as i say, the US has a little correction.
Doesn't seem to want to breech that £27,but if it does i will start to get interested...
Also, do you trade IMB in a similar way?
Pig
If you look at the 30 min time interval TA chart you will see that BATS
is regularly being pulled back down to the lower level of an ascending channel.
That is where the SP is now.
I'd expect support to hold and buying to return.
But you can never be totally sure and support could break,
as was the case earlier this week when RIO fell out of its channel after profit taking.
My finger is hovering over the buy button again, but must resist !
I'm very tempted to double holding again, but that carries extra risk with it
I like to keep sufficient funds available for if there is an unexpected and serious drop.
So I can buy my way out of it.
Must remain patient and not greedy, and stick to my planned trade.
Sigma,
bought in a while ago in my ISA at 2,678
Noticed recent(ish) low's with support at 2,620 (1 May) & 2,651 (9 Aug) respectively.
So, may top up if we see 2,650/2,670 area again.....perhaps due to a bad day in the US
18 trading day's until XD
Do you intend topping up with more at all?
Pig
Same for me with BHP. Wanted £24 for a nice cap gain. But went nowhere near, so taking the divi now.
Still, it equates to 6.5%. SP has dropped (XD) this morning but not by as much.
£24 & i'm out, plus i have the divi.
So may strangly work out better in the end
Pig
P - hopefully lower than where the SP peaks before ex-divi !
I'm not a fan of holding for the divi,
prefer to take a profit and then look for another trade.
Makes life a little more interesting.
Came unstuck with PHNX though,
set my exit to high so had to hold and take the divi.
Waiting and hoping for a suitable SP rise and exit from that one soon.
"exit sell price"
Which is what Sigma, may i ask
Pig
I think the uptick in the recent week is both the upcoming divi and also the FDA PMTA announcement on the 9th September which is expected to be positive for Big Tobacco.
I think the end of day pull backs are profit taking.
GLA
Bought more at SP 2706 this afternoon to double my holding
as the SP had been continuing to tick up nicely in an ascending channel.
Ex-divi at the end of this month (Sept),
so hopefully SP will continue to rise to my exit sell price.
Always DYOR.
Good news for BATS share holders,
but very bad news for the health of the nation!
"The number of 18-34 year-olds who smoke increased by 25 per cent in England during the first lockdown, according to a study conducted by the University of Sheffield and UCL published today (25 August 2021) in the journal Addiction."
https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/surge-smoking-among-young-adults-during-lockdown
https://news.sky.com/story/smoking-among-young-people-increased-by-quarter-during-first-covid-19-lockdown-12389992
Last week finished strong,
2650 support held again.
RSI continued to rise.
Bought in this morning at 2725.
Current yield over 7%.
Ex-divi at end of Sept.
Always DYOR.
SP revisited 2650 again today.
With a yield of over 7% and Spring Mountain Investments Ltd having increased their holding (see RNS),
it's a very tempting trade target,
but still a little concerned from the TA that it might dip a slightly lower.
So still waiting!
Yes it seems that way :-)
And it would appear that an institution has just upped its stake in the Company. Have I read that correctly ?
Rogue, I also hold both IMB and BATS (high income ISA portfolio) having worked for Philip Morris back in the early eighties. Happy to take the 54p div in mid May and also 54p next week in BATS and have taken a 3 year view on both companies but check the results as they are released.
Support at circa 2650 has held for 4 days now,
but will it last?
If you draw a trend line from the Oct 20 low,
through the Feb 21 low,
and extend it into Aug-Sept 21,
it suggests a possible low of circa 2570 towards late Aug.
For now I'm still waiting in case support breaks and SP continues downwards.
Ex-divi at the end of Sept.
Always DYOR.
I opened a position in IMB around the same time as I did in BAT. I am in the black with IMB, but 7% down with BAT, so the problem seems to be with the company, rather than with the industry as a whole. Hopefully this is a temporary phenomenon.
My guess is this could drift down to the all time lows around 2400p and bounce around there for a while. I can't see it dropping below that without a dividend cut or a big fall in earnings (which I believe to be unlikely to happen).
Personally I don't think we will see a significant move upwards until share buybacks resume....hopefully in early 2022. However, between now and then I would take any drop from here as an opportunity to add to your holding.
If there was ever a situation where buybacks make sense - this is it!! Personally I would rather they forget about trying to reduce the net debt and just buyback shares now. In the current interest rate environment it really doesn't make sense to repay debt, especially when the business is being valued at significantly less than 10x earnings!!!
The madness of it all is that they increased debt to way over 5x to acquire Reynold back in 2017 at multiples double what BATS is being valued at now, however now that the share-price of BATS has halved they think that repaying debt is a better use of funds! Arrrgh
Anyway, the latest announcement did confirm they are on track to reduce net debt to 3x by the year end, so hopefully we won't have to wait much longer for them to introduce a more sensible capital allocation policy going forwards!!!
SP still seems to be walking down.
Any views on where it might bottom out?
2600?
2575?
Lower?
The ESG effect weighed heavily on BATS over the past few years,
but it does seem to have found a more stable trading level for the time being.
The II's who were divesting due to ESG seem to have finished parting ways with BATS,
to hopefully be replaced with major shareholders who have profit and returns as their primary focus.
There is some useful information regarding major shareholders
in the latest BATS company accounts (up to 31 Dec 2020) filled here:
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/03407696/filing-history
Share holder info begins on page 326 of the accounts report.
UK shareholder register 31st Dec 2020.
36648 shareholders of 100% of UK ordinary share capital.
307 shareholders held over 500,000 shares each.
307 shareholders held 85% of UK ordinary share capital.
Major holders of issued share capital included:
The Capital Group Companies Inc
BlackRock Inc
Spring Mountain Investments Ltd
Some further BATS info here:
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BRITISH-AMERICAN-TOBACCO-4001163/company/
However the pressure on cigarette sales in the UK has not ended:
"MPs have called for a consultation on raising the age for the sale of cigarettes to 21 from 18 in order to end the “tobacco epidemic” by 2030."
"The cross-party group of MPs and peers has warned the government that it can only build back “better and fairer” from the pandemic by making smoking obsolete and must commit now to the actions needed to secure its vision of a Smokefree 2030."
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/09/uk-smoking-raise-age-cigarettes-sale-to-21-mps
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/smoking-age-limit-cigarettes-21-b1862375.html
Always DYOR.
I have been slowly buying a pretty large position in this company over the last 6 months and continue to buy more at it reaches new lows. I view it as an interesting experiment to see whether I can get my investment back in dividends before the company goes to zero.....anything received in excess of this will be my profit!
If BATS can maintain its current profits with no increase whatsoever, I should get my money back within 10 years. Any residual value after this will be pure profit. Given that the company is actually still increasing its profits and revenue, this seems like a decent bet. Contrary to what many people believe, the number of smokers in the world is actually increasing currently due to population growth, not to mention that some proportion of future profits will be coming from non-combustibles which in theory could generate profits into perpetuity.
I think its pretty clear that you are getting a huge discount here for a company that others are unwilling to buy at any price due to the harmful product it sells. There is just simply very little demand from institutional investors due to the absurd suggestion that they are being socially responsible by not owning tobacco shares. Even if the shares fell 99% with no reduction in profitability, these institutions would still be unable to buy the shares.
Hey RR that's my investment strategy. Seriously, shares are designed to confuse and infuriate. All sensible metrics such as PE, profitability, and debt have been abandoned in favour of fairy tales. Welcome to the parallel universe of Tesla, Bitcoin and Monzo.
Bought in a few weeks ago for the 7% divi and I’m now 7% down. Bit of a dog so far.