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I am with II. You can't hold Poly on their platform beyond the cut-off date. They will simply liquidate the holding. You have to sell or transfer from a SIPP or ISA to a broker who will hold your shares and certificates pending relisting. From a trading account you can sell or request the physical certificates to hold personally. This is the action I am considering then registering my holding on the Kazakh exchange via their system. Re the SIPP I am considering shifting it to AJ Bell.
As a Poly shareholder I visit this site occasionally in the hope of gathering information upon which to base my decision regarding the pending delisting. I find the pointless political BS utterly banal. Regardless of whether you are for or against Russia, the fact remains that the political machinations of international power brokers are far beyond the comprehension of the halfwits on this bb who claim to know what is going on. The information cited is based on MSM and therefore unreliable. Cui bono?
Mark Twain sagely stated that if you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed but if you read it you are misinformed. Since Syria, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the emergence of BRICS and the SCO, the US has faced a Thucydides Trap. Subsequent action has been to reestablish its credentials as the global pre-eminent super power. What we witness in Ukraine is simply a sideshow, a proxy war. The real issue is de-dollarization and transition to a multipolar world where wealth and influence shift eastward and southwards against the backdrop of debt, reduced energy supplies, climate change and demographics. The US has weaponized the $USD while its adversaries have responded by weaponizing commodities.
All the nonsense and cheerleading simply fill time for myopic individuals who know very little. They should get out of the house more. Perhaps they could read more widely. I recommend Chomsky and Hersch. We will only know the truth in retrospect and only then if it serves the PTB's interests.
orange, interactive investor will send you your paper certificates if you request them by the deadline, which i think is the 30th of june, but only from a trading account not a sipp, junior isa or isa. it seems like a bloody racket to me. purchases are being frustrated on numerous platforms while private investors are being driven towards the exit. one way traffic is bound to drive the share price down. i don't doubt that some institutional investors are mopping up cheap shares at the expense of little guys and that our fiduciary agents are assisting the daylight robbery by their mates in the city. spreads are bull**** also. total con.
sick of our government ballsing up my macro investments by interfering in markets when they can't managed to fill in a pothole. they screwed bp and shell, driving inflation up by jeopardising future north sea investment. they blew enormous bubbles by manipulating interest rates to artificially low levels. they created unpayable debts via qe. they have used imb and bats as a private piggy bank when it suits them. they propped up insolvent and nefarious banks at the tax payers' expense. when are these clowns going to appreciate their own limitations? all governments since 2000 have been profligate peddlers of lies with delusions of adequacy, regardless of stripe of professed ideology. westminster has become a self-enriching grifter's paradise. cui bono?
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
? H.L. Mencken, On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe
I adore the notion of democracy from the Greek demos, the people, kratos govern. What is described as democracy these days bears little resemblance to Plato's Republic. We are offered the choice between two equally insipid, compromised parties lead by mouth pieces for other financial and political interests. We are no better than the US where a man in his eightieth year rails against the corruption of his predecessor ignoring the fact that his son and brother struck deals in Ukraine and China with foreign companies from which he benefitted financially. The people are not fit to govern otherwise we would have chaos, hence Roman emperors placated the mob with panem et circenses, bread and circuses or fast food and social media. The population is more interested in Strictly than general elections.
I have read the exchange of opinions with interest and felt the urge to respond. I find the binary presentation that we are virtuous and they evil, unbalanced and naive. Matt Taibbi characterises the MSM narrative of the Russia-Ukraine war as 'Adolf Hitler vs baby seals'. Certainty is the bedfellow of fools. We should rightly consider the issue more fully and reflect on our own limitations.
The West has many venerable institutions that have been tarnished and abused over the course of the last 40 years by neoliberal economic policies and unscrupulous politicians serving the interests of the Titans of Technology, Big Pharma, the MIC, Finance, and Energy. How can we lecture lesser nations on the benefits of democracy and the rule of law when George W Bush was elected with less of the popular vote than Gore in a state where his brother was Governor and ordered a recount while his father was the former President and head of the Secret Service? When we entered a war in which perhaps 1,000,000 people were killed, on a trumped up pretext plagiarised from a student's dissertation? When we left Afghanistan in such unseemly haste and abandoned our former allies to their fates? When Greece, the Cradle of Democracy, was subjected to such appalling abuse by the Troika? When in our own country leaders have been selected internally or ruled by coalition rather than by the electoral mandate viz Brown, Cameron, May, Johnson and next Truss? When the public purse picked up the tab for reckless lending by shyster bankers who pocketed their immoral bonuses and moved on to the next mug? When our country had net migration of over 1,000,000 last year despite Cameron's efforts to reduce it to 'tens of thousands'. When half the country is dependent on state subsidy in one form or another? When the bus drivers, train workers, post men, firemen, teachers, lawyers, doctors, nurses, telephone engineers et al are on or considering strike action? When CPI is approaching 10% and RPI is over 13%? When the roads are riddled with pot holes and hard work and enterprise are discourages by bureaucracy and taxation? When our politicians are bought and paid for? Is ours a system that encourages imitation?
The Developing World must look at us with longing. Let's be objective about this; authoritarian states such as Russia and China certainly have problems, as do we. It is easy to have scruples when you are warm and full, however come winter when people are cold and hungry more pressing considerations may shape public priorities. Mark Twain said that, 'if you don't read the newspaper that makes you uninformed, but if you do read the newspaper that makes you misinformed'. There are great machinations behind the current phase in geopolitics, perhaps even the end of US hegemony. We must always question Cui Bono? Good and bad reside on both sides of the debate equally.
Triumph1, the number to concentrate is not the base rate quoted by the BoE in isolation, but the real rate i.e. nominal rate less inflation, using CPI or RPI as a proxy metric. Real rates were important in the 70s and 80s and even accounting adapted with real cost accounting to provide figures that reflected the effects of inflation during a period. Currently the BoE base interest rate is a paltry 1% yet CPI/ RPI are circa 7.9 (CPI ONS May 2022) and 11.7 (RPI ONS May 2022) giving a negative real rate of circa -9%. Theory suggests that in these circumstances holders of cash are driven into risk assets in an attempt to preserve their wealth. Residential housing could be a shrewd hedge under the circumstances as could equities an PMs.
Wildtiger, I agree with your opinion. As our politics has converged on the centre ground, one universal truth has emerged; if an incumbent wishes to win the next election, property prices must go up, or at least keep pace with inflation/ other asset classes. In the mid 1980s residential property morphed from somewhere to live into an investment/ retirement pot. Our attitude to residential property has been dominated by gains. A whole generation can now thank arbitrary property value increases for its wealth.
I am 53 and have made more from rent and value increases than working. The generation immediately before me had the opportunity to massively enrich themselves via shares, especially privatisations during the 1980s. There is a limit to the level of value though. As David Riccardo postulated, the price of land can exceed the value that can be generated from its use but, at that point, society faces a fundamental problem since rentiers extract all value.
I can't imagine that Boris will rock the boat too much. A property owning democracy is a system in which the government is enthralled to the interests of home ownership. An Englishman's home is his castle but it might also prove to be his prison.
Wolf, I can't fault your logic. I am also encouraged by the business model which enables house builders simply to landbank until the conditions are favourable. These days they don't employ legions of workers. Rather they project manage subcontractors so can easily adapt if demand falls. Good luck with you investments. Common sense has got to have a run now that Crypto has been exposed as a pump and dump scheme!
CSDI Our paths cross again. We seem to have the same approach or perhaps it is an affliction. I am heavily into tobacco, oil, gold, silver, utilities, miners, FIRE, with a few oddballs just for flavour MKS, SYNT, GSK, ITV. I look for dividend stocks with pricing power and fair PEs. We have touched base previously on another board. I am also into Poly and currently nursing a loss of approx 70 thousand. I maintain that Poly is an excellent company and that it has the opportunity to thrive if the Ukrainian conflict is resolved.
Yesterday I jumped into Persimmon which I have been tracking for a while. My buy price was 19.50 which seems very reasonable when you look at the dividend and ratios. However, that was my thinking re Poly and look where that got me!
Trading or investing in shares is a philosophical exercise. Good companies are not rewarded while errant frauds are lionised, Tesla I'm looking at you. All you can do is use the data to make a selection based on reasonable expectations and put your money down, "as flies to wanton boys are we to the gods, they kill us for their sport." (King Lear).
It comforts me to know that in a 10%+ inflationary environment I am at least attempting to prevent the de facto theft of my wealth via government orchestrated inflation rather than just seeing its buying power diminish.
As humans we tend to overestimate our significance in the system. When the market goes up we imagine ourselves to be geniuses. Conversely if things fall we assume we are cretins. In truth we are a tiny element of a complex system and luck plays an enormous part.
I focus on the Marco and take a contrarian approach. The substitution of oil for clean energy is not feasible at scale in the timeframes suggested, despite its environmental impact the world still needs mined products, people will continue to smoke fags even though it kills them, insurance is unavoidable, higher interest rates will work well for banks and insurers and people will still need homes despite fluctuations in UK house prices, especially since demand is greater than supply.
Mr Market will bless or damn me according to his will. It is rather like organising a barbecue in advance for a bank holiday weekend. Who knows? Good luck and don't despair you have to fight against the inevitable!
Thriller, if Poly is a sinking ship you are a rat so best leave it. Gloating while others worry is a revolting tendency. If you have nothing positive, informative or constructive to say then say nothing.
Paul, Copper is actually £6.50 per kilo for heavy scrap so you need to have a second look at this element.
You could perform a simpler EV calculation using previous profitability, free cashflow or growth metrics and benchmark relative to Barrick and Newmont.
As some have already pointed out, the variables are incalculable so some guesswork is required but that is what makes it interesting. Better odds than at the casino and price being suppressed by sanctions and elimination from FTSE indexes suggest that the share is oversold especially with the ruble now pegged to gold and the Russian economy displaying robust qualities. Difficulty buying shares and excessive spreads also causes the picture to be distorted. In my book there is risk asymmetry which appeals.
The US also forces its NATO allies to increase defence spending on US hardware. Interesting. Cui bono?
JR, Considering the debt position I would be equally happy if Poly retired some of it, especially if it is USD denominated and owed to foreign banks to prevent apparent defaults in future that are manufactured.
The question is not the value of gold measured in USD but the relative value of gold measured in other stuff i.e. oil, wheat, I phones, houses etc. Given the current rates of inflation globally, gold could double in value while standing still relative to gas or uranium. Inflation in its purest sense is an increase in the amount of 'money' relative to the amount of goods i.e. the ratio changes. To get a true picture you need to account for the decreased nominal purchasing power of fiat over a given period.
Since Poly's departure from the FTSE indexes I have been less inclined to check the sp every second minute. I feel far more relaxed about the situation. I am utterly powerless. The machinations of despots and hucksters will determine the outcome. On balance Poly remains a well run company with strong fundamentals and a ridiculously low share price. With a PE under 1 and a yield of over 50% the numbers are screaming buy although there are clearly existential risks to factor. GLA and try not to obsess about what you cannot change.
There are various gold bug commentators including Macleod, Schiff, Rule, Rickards, Rogers and Faber. All point out the structural, political and mathematical limitations of fiat, advocating gold as a tried and tested hedge. I have no problem with the analysis but none of them can tell you when the axe will fall. As Keynes noted, "the market can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent."
There are various gold bug commentators including Macleod, Schiff, Rule, Rickards, Rogers and Faber. All point out the structural, political and mathematical limitations of fiat, advocating gold as a tried and tested hedge. I have no problem with the analysis but none of them can tell you when the axe will fall. As Keynes noted, "the market can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent."
Red, interesting philosophical point; my investment in Poly wasn't wrong simply premature!
Having heard all the badinage and contemplating my own investment one thought reoccurs:
If the exclusion of Poly from the Russel indices is already known and the liquidation of various index trackers is surmised, why do people continue to hold and indeed purchase more equity?
The only conclusion I can draw is that seasoned investors recognise that risk is being mispriced, or rather that the balance of risk is asymmetric. True the share may go to zero but also true it may recover. The calculus of many investors is that the balance of probabilities and quantum favour the upside. I shall therefore continue to hold although I am losing a bundle. If I see signs that are positive I shall increase my holding.
Putin has signalled a desire to allow foreign investment in Russia to continue. The BoD has stated its intention to continue on a 'business as usual' footing. The dividend is imminent. Mood music from Ukraine appears to be more hopeful. Inflation is rising globally. Gold is looking like it will enter a bull market. US dollar hegemony, in the light of epic printing, appears to be waning. For these reasons I am cautiously optimistic.
The shameless ramping and deramping on the board are simply the juvenile babble of people who are not invested or have ulterior undisclosed motives. If it all turns to ordure my reasoning will have been sound even though the outcome costs me a great deal. Sometimes you simply have to step back and switch off the white noise. Poly is a well run company which would, but for the Ukrainian invasion, be trading freely at £14.00.
GLA
Looks like co-ordinated selling. Buys are consistently small PI whereas the sells seem to be automated and triggered by reaching certain points eg 150p. They will bang the close.
So the UK and the rest of the world will deny themselves Russian oil, gas, steel, wheat, corn, fertiliser, rare earth minerals, PMs and coal. In addition the international community will exclude Russia from sporting events, Eurovision, luxury goods, access to the US sponsored banking network and town houses in Belgravia.
These actions will force the west into the pockets of Venezuela, Iran, Libya and Saudi. It will also destroy the USD reserve currency status and greatly empower those nations willing to trade with Russia directly, principally India and China.
We live in the 21st Century not the 19th. We can't simply send an armada of gun boats to pulverise the Chinese coastline, pinch Hong Kong, declare job done and sing Rule Britannia while waving the Union flag. To assume that the west holds all the aces is a profound miscalculation, especially when the game being played is chess rather than poker.