The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I did get a simply wall street email that said the EPS for 2024 estimate is only 46p! That's 20% of 2023s!
This can't be right?
Rylidan, whether the shares of Oil and Gas cos., Tobacco, Aerospace and other so-called 'sin' cos are traded won't stop them operating. Indeed, if their share prices completely collapsed they would be taken private and there'd be even less reporting requirements and transparency !!
What I find ironic is that there is never any discussion on the possibility that maybe, just maybe !!, living in the next life, or a life other than on planet Earth, after the destruction of Earth, could be actually better than living on Earth !! Guess it's fear of the Unknown, but doesn't show much confidence in Religion does it !!
I see! So the US doesn't have increased flooding or soaring heatwaves like the rest of the planet then. Lucky them. It's this kind of stupidity that will destroy the planet. Probably not that the Utah AG would care as it probably won't happen in his lifetime.
Permitting asset managers to direct hard-working Americans' money to ESG investments puts trillions of dollars of retirement savings at risk in exchange for someone else's political agenda,” Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes said in a press release announcing the lawsuit"
Many companies are questioning ESG as some are political which is Investment, Policy Decisions, and Picking the right people for the job for the company. This has led to ESG becoming a menace to the company's long-term profitability. In the past 12 months some companies are moving away from ESG and going back to basics.
I saw an article recently (maybe in the FT - maybe in one of the investment mags) which looked at the ESG Credentials of the FTSE100 companies, and BAT were in the top 3.
"lack of investor appetite related to ESG constraints."
The general public owns over 22%.
RBC said its long-held belief is that share buybacks are a major catalyst for outperformance in the tobacco space given a lack of investor appetite related to ESG constraints.
"This has driven our preference for Imperial Brands over BAT until today," it said. "The tables seemed to be turning for BAT as it pledged to reinstate share buybacks once it reaches net debt/EBITDA of 2.5x.
This fact(see previous comment) gives reason to believe the recent trough, will be left behind. Also the highest volume for 3 months , is in accordance with a legitimate trough.Upper and lower Bollinger bands are still separating , which implies fast sp , movement, so the most likely direction is up for the sp. There is old trough resistance at 2400, and beyond that level is the falling 20 day moving average, for the next price target.
The recent price low, was neatly met the straight line drawn from the major peak of 26/7/23 through the major bottom of 27/10/23. This fact, gives reason to believe r
2471 is the top of the gap. But who knows, new rallies usually start on capitulation like this. All weak hands have been stopped out, and a lot of people had buy orders ready @ 2350.
My previous forecast , was that it BATS, could get past 2300 , the target would be 2392-2406. The price level of 2300, is a resistance or pivot level, so at present the sp, appears to be attempting to bottom at it just above 2300. If BATS, succeeds in remaining above 2300, my earlier forecast of 2392-2406, comes into play.
Here we go, the gap will be filled. This amortization is a tax write down, so more free cash?
Fellow investors, don·t give up on
At times such as these and for obvious reasons I would have liked to see some or even just one of the BATS directors buying some shares. As yet nothing & indeed no buys at all since a solitary deal in August. Plenty of "award based freebies" though so I expect that's enough to keep the lads & lasses at the top feeding at the trough.
Price holding steady today thanks be to f.. !!
BATS directed the police to various illicit cig factories in Europe a number of years ago, they were in Ukraine I believe and the BATS section was headed by an ex-Head policeman Irish guy !! Maybe this approach could be used in the US to get rid of the illicit Chinese vapes ?
The U.S is 25- 40% overvalued
Struggling to find opportunities in the US market at the minute some crazy PE ratios around.
FT had an article on it yesterday morning, because they purchased a specific US company this explicit impairment is necessary. Other manufactures can amortize their cig lines without it as they were developed in house. So they are all perhaps doing the same thing, but BATS has to announce it as an impairment, and we get this buying opportunity?
“Buy quality US growth every time.”
Is that the “quality US growth” like Alphabet that’s 15% below where it was two years ago…
…or Tesla that’s 20% below its peak two years ago…
…or META that’s 10% below…
…or the NASDAQ that’s 15% off its 2021 peak…
Many thanks anon3 for your helpful reply - that's much appreciated. Yes, I will check out those ETFs you mentioned.
Follow on 3 Minutes ago-
Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett said that while BAT’s business is clearly under pressure, “post call there are reasons not to be too negative.”
Bennett pointed to possible upside from the U.S. next year, and noted that both the vape & pouch businesses are profitable already, even with the disposable pressures on the former. Bennett said he believes that a plan to invest more in heated products is needed.
“We’ve said before, the focus on pricing vs below-the-line has been wrong,” he wrote, referring to BAT’s decision to go to market with a focus on pricing and not on spending on items such as consumer education.
“Philip Morris, by contrast, has been very much focused on the latter. BAT’s approach works in a cigarette world, but not with RRP (reduced risk products), where education to drive conversion over trial is critical,” said Bennett.
BAT also seems open to part of its stake in Imperial Tobacco Company of India, or ITC, which could free money up for share buybacks, said the analyst.
Jefferies has a buy rating on BAT’s stock.
Rogue_radar, thank you for the link, interesting, but as he says 'you'd be stupid to make a decision based upon what he says' as he does his analysis for a hobby. Most relevant for me of what he said was that the £25b impairment is a reduction of the Intangible Assets which were way overstated anyway amd due a cut !!
Agreed people are being on the Negative side, 25 Billion over 30 years front loaded Q1 2024. The USA side is based on a Federal Level but that ended badly for the US government Congress on Gambling as it is a state by state. This is the same for tobacco products, people have a choice. Bat itself covers all bases assuming the worst. There are ongoing cases in the USA that probably end at the Supreme Court, which the US Government is trying to avoid.
The company is cash Generative, Dividend well covered, Debt reduced year on year which they can cover, still making growth forecasts, and looking at new products to replace tobacco like Tea leaf products. Again the UK market over reacts and people do like their Analysis without taking the long-term view, short-sighted to be honest.
If sp, can get above 2300, the price target is 2392-2406. The positive divergence in the RSI(relative strength index), supports the notion that BATS, was oversold. This view is based upon the one hour chart, where there has been heavy volume at the bottom.
Peakybinder, anyone who buys cheapy cheapy products of China is taking even more risk with their health than the vapes !! BATS is known for good quality and that's why their products have low price elasticity.