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The cheaper test’s who are less sensitive will be ruled out by regulation over time. With people and companies building their awareness of what sensitivity and CT levels actually mean, people will start to realise how important they are and they will buy the best test out there. Avacta will dominate the market. Price’s could even sky rocket, simple supply and demand. So Wyn I think you’re 25p profit per test will never happen and as you say is a ‘wild guess’. There are always questions and unknowns. Honestly I think todays mcap is fair value for all of Avacta’s other depts and risks. The value of LFTs in the current mcap is minimal. Any positivity or good news will start the rise back up to +250.
I do think that LFT's will eventually play a big part in travel. The danger is that another more technologically complex but convenient and faster "mass testing" product type will hit the market at a reasonable price IE A computer based system at airport gates. I am also not still not convinced that Avacta has the nous to compete in the hugely competitive arena that is today's LFT market - best test or not. That said, they may well pick up a few small contracts in the medium term but the 'personal use' market is where the real money is.
Avacta's huge potential is obviously the Affimer platform. If I was younger and had kids then now is probably a good time to invest here for their future. If taking a short term view, not for me.
With your slippery semantics, snake-oil salesman verbal gymnastics and tediously long sermons, you come across as a fundamentally dishonest person; out to line his own pockets on the misfortune of others, which he has helped to create.
I look forward to skipping past your next 500 words vacuous, negative monologue.
Sjp, yes its a "wild guess" just like all my others which have turned out to be pretty much on the money. (Plus you really believe anything AS says going forward?)
Stop looking at the product from your invested point of view and try and see to see it through a laymans view. How much would you want to pay for a test that you HAD to take daily when you came home from hols with the wife and 2 kid? You will just take the cheapest one available (as long as its certified.) One is 96%/ one is 99% so what!? (Yes, we know how important the difference is, but joe blogs won't understand or care.)
AVCT have to get the pricing out in front of the market, not paly catch up in they are too expensive. Its ever more crucial that they get this bit right. Better to be very aggressive straight away and then over time walk the price up if they can, but miss the initial association between the AVACTA COVID TEST product and the publics then its just going to be that much harder. We need it to be, as a goal, like referring to a "Hoover" when meaning vacuum cleaner.
They are the best test available, if they are also the cheapest (or so close it makes no odds), then there is only one winner!
Very odd the price on IG hasn’t moved for the last 20mins
There is a word for his numbers - it begins with bol and ends with locks. It was stated yesterday that it will be between 1 and 2 euros per test.
Agreed,
I don't usually have a problem with you Wyn. I agree that expectations have been reset by both AS and the market and said as much yesterday. But thinking that you are now an expert at LFT pricing is a bit much.
@Wyndrum,
What's your economic analysis behind £2.50 a test and 25p profit - wild guess I assume?
The RNS yesterday was manufactured to be released to try and bolster the disappointing news. The market realised that as soon as they read it that it didn't warrant an RNS and knew then what was coming.
There is no sovereign test and there is No NDA. Innova will last until at least the end of August which coincidently will be the time that most of the adult population will be have had 2 jabs (accept its not a coincidence).
It then becomes a free for all for whoever to sell whatever test they can once certified.
What we did learn is that the cost of the test and the profit margin and has been reduced to commercial pressure. I will be surprised if it is at the figures he indicated yesterday. (its still too expensive, imo).
The cost of the test I think need to be about £2.50 for general take up assuming we get home testing approval. Which is why the extra manufacturing capacity has to be taken into context along side the profit margin. Ultimately I think it will be (or will have to be) about profit 25p per test. so 4 times the tests to get to a £1 previous expectant profit.
If you are going to take a daily test when returning home then 10 days at 2.50 per test is probably affordable as an extra given you will have taken a test before and at least 1 test abroad before returning. At that level of cost hotels might incorporate daily testing as well?
AVCT need to grasp the likely economics going forward because there could easily be a raft of tests out there competing and as long as they are certified the cheapest will probably be the most popular. This will absolutely be a " stack 'em high sell 'em cheap" product.
The market unsurprisingly no longer puts much if any weight on any timescale that AS forecasts. Again , by continually and unerringly missing every timeline damages and undermines his credibility until we are where we are.
We have no orders and the way he has worded the "airline" is ambiguous. (And anyway we have no home use or know when or if home use will be granted.) But travel is still the best remaining longer term volume chance for AVCT test, so lets hope that pans out.
AVCT won't sell the test, that's the distributers and manufacturers job, so one can only hope they are on it.
If we just have professional use then every care home and hospital should be using it, which is why its so important to get the cost right. We have to make it a no brainer to use ours.
We are back to guessing when any test might be sold, next week, next month, end of year?. The market is simply re-rating the SP to reflect the latest delay with now the expectation of less tests at less profit margin.
The good news is the market does not care or hold a grudge, as soon as an order does materialise they will respond accordingly.
Look at the bigger pic otherwise you will lose money
Disappointment of no sales mentioned yesterday was a completely over reaction
And sheep have followed mms will be laughing all the way to the bank lol
Good...and I will definitely be buying more, perfect timing with some other stocks reaching target and I never thought I'd get the opportunity to buy at this price! Bring it on
I genuinely thought that 1.75 was the floor for the SP but after yesterday and now this morning I’m starting to wonder if there is one
back up before it moves North again.
This is tanking like a goodun. No clear explanation, except a retrace and gap fill. I've noticed a gap on the 16th February @154. Could be gapping