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Because donkey there is no angst, I have a small shareholding that I can afford to lose if the worst happens.
However I don't just sit on my hands . I take a more active short termist approach than some here.
But no, I am not "happy" with how this has proceeded to date. are you?
And it seems like are many here, you simply don't read my posts. I have highlighted before that a take out price whether its BP or private , could from here, easily be 100-150p. However , I would suggest BP does not see value in AVCT at this price or at this stage of the trial, so its a possibility but a low one in my book at the moment.
I always look at as many scenario's as I can and then figure out as best as one can, how likely are any of them to come to pass.
The easiest one is thats its a fantastic success and its £20 per share. however based on past performance of commercial success this seems unlikely to me presently.
When new data arrives it will undoubtedly change my view on the likelyhood of the various scenarios coming to pass.
Touk ; your latest opinion is shot down by fact. " I think there is a possibility that excretion exceeds cleaving rate for some patients characteristics hence 2 week dosing trial". your opinion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqj0hhgmX6U
Watch the video 16 min in and CC tells you why the 2 week dosing trial is being adopted.
Fact, it is because of the excellent safety profile, your opinion is therefore unfounded.
Avacta may never achieve the commercial success that you crave for. Quite possible that they'll be taken over by Big Pharma who have the wherewithal to achieve commercial success. Has this not occurred to you Wyndrum?
It's as inevitable as the tide coming back in.
How quickly any lessons that might have been learnt about the 50% plus discounted fund raise are forgotten.
The voices start quietly, then they get louder and simply try to shout down those with contrary (and as it turns out) better points of view with a track record of considering all options other than the highly complex and subtle 'It Works' narrative.
Still, the SP isn't going anywhere in a hurry and, although they might not see it, will need hard statistical evidence of AVA6000 being clinically superior to standard Dox in a head to head blinded trial before anything changes.
Which is what the company themselves have said, although as you point out Wynn that's no guarantee of future events.
He’s fuming.
Rest assured: The science works. Exactly as intended
Then why not answer my questions?
Did you think, based on the science ath the time that BAMS ELISA LFT Affimirs etc would have proven to be commercially successful by now?
Wyndrum, you don't sound very happy with the way things are going, or comfortable with being a shareholder and the risk. What's puzzling me is why you don't just sell up and free yourself of all your angst.
The science works. Exactly as intended
DTW, me pathologically stupid?
You don't seem to have the ability to read my posts.
Without efficacy results it becomes irrelevant as to what P1a produced. Its not me assuming efficacy is already proven. My whole point is that it has not. My whole point is that the continuing time extension of the trial means that it has not gone to plan.
If you don't think an almost doubling of the cohorts from 4-7 which took AS by surprise is relevant, then fine. If you think AS saying MTD may never be found so we are not bothered about it and then saying the cohort extensions are to find MTD, and now we are back to we are stopping at cohort 7 no matter what, shows that this is all going to plan, then again, fine.
Watching a share price decline quite dramatically and wanting to discuss why that may be, is neither proof of my stupidity or indeed disruptive.
Your assumptions have proven so far to be wrong all the way along. What does that tell you about your investment analytical skills?
But yes, its all about me being the problem....
It's been the same forever, disruptive fud sealioning.
CJ62. You're right in that I for one feel pretty stupid.
If it's all gone 'to plan' and, having bought with an average of >130p when only yesterday I could have bought at 52p, then I am pretty stupid.
I only wish AS had told me 'the plan' earlier.
"The science works. Exactly as intended."
If you say so.
On that basis did you expect the trial to have finished by now or do you just accept every timeline extension confirms that everything is going exactly as intended?
I will give you the answer DTW
a. Stupid
WYN - the following quotes are taken from your posts this morning:
'So why did we go from 4 cohorts to 7 which was surprise to AVCT'
'I am reluctant to make the assumption on efficacy at this stage'
'I don't know for sure, other than clearly it has not gone to plan. Why it has not gone to plan is obviously debateable.'
You regularly ask why you are often reported for being disruptive. If you claim that you are not being disruptive then you will have to admit to bordering on being pathologically stupid if, even after all this time, you haven't understood that P1a was never designed to demonstrate efficacy and the pursuit of a MTD to guide RDP2 was the sole reason the trial extended to 7 cohorts.
Touk doesn't care he just likes to spout of utter gibberish and I also see windy is in full flow pontificating this morning. Good Luck
"Investing in this company should be all about the science." The science and the management. Science very good, management very meh.
That’s a mad lot of questions.
The science works. Exactly as intended.
Derek - Do you know anything about the efficacy of dox? Efficacy of the delivery mechanism is proven.
BITL So why did we go from 4 cohorts to 7 which was surprise to AVCT (and 7 remember was very unlikely), where are we in cohort 7. When was 2WD introducds. When did you expect it to start based on what AS said?
Is not your belief in the science based on what AS reports? Do you believe what AS says?
Why didn't the SP rocket on science day?
Do you accept that with this low SP it is entirely possible that AVCT could be taken private and PI's lose out even though AVCT's science may one day be as revoltionary as we all hope?
Investing is about getting a return on your money.
When I first bought at the begining of LFT, the chorus here was there are so many strings to AVCT's bow, so many shots at goal that they could not fail. (That was based on the science)
Well, here we are with basically one shot left that has not gone so far to any plan that AVCT predicted.
How's that for the science?
Bein
AVA6000 safety is proven. Efficacy is not. It isn’t enough for it not to kill people. I think that there is a possibility that excretion rate exceeds cleaving rate for some patient characteristics hence 2 week dosing trial and stony silence on C7. IMO
It’s fair to make the statement that the science and SP are disconnected. I’m not talking about wild ‘should be £20 now’ disconnect, more logical that the science costs money to progress. And delays really hurt the SP.
The science works and efficacy in terms of what Wyn refers to is utter rubbish. Doesn’t understand the first thing about the science.
Investing in this company should be all about the science. Trading stock in this company should be all about the SP inflections, ie CLN, funding, dilution etc.
Gje,
I don't know the reason for why the SP is where it is definitively, and to be fair, none of us do.
Clearly you have more faith in the science then I do at this stage. I agree that it is not harming the patient.
I am reluctant to make the assumption on efficacy at this stage as, (as we all know), we have been strung along before and disappointed by what has been implied and what has resulted from AVCT
Certainly I do believe (and I don't think it really is that contentious), that the SP is as good an indicator as any (and imo better than most), as to what is going on in the company. If the SP has been on a down trend ever since the trial started and it is years later what does that indicate?
I don't know for sure, other than clearly it has not gone to plan. Why it has not gone to plan is obviously debateable.
You look to the science to provide your estimation of returns, which is fine and logical, but you don't know how the science is working and are relying on an unreliable company with its timelines and utterances
I never lose sight that this is an investment and although I am not suggesting for a moment you do, it may be my criteria is more specific or rigid than yours.
Ultimately we want the same thing, a return on our investment commensurate with the time and risk taken.
Sorry to break this to you Timster, but wyndrum with all his hot air and contradiction still manages to at least provide more worth to this board than yourself. Tell us all, are you paid to pour cold water on every single post, or self-appointed?
Tim, for the moment this is interesting. I'm interested anyway.
(When we get Jehovah's witnesses at the door I politely point out that my wife is Catholic and we go to the church down the road. That always works for me.)
Gje, do you also have discussions with Jehovah's witnesses?
It's as productive as feeding the 🦭
We were discussing the link between SP and whether this is a reflection of the science or not. You decided not to answer the points I put to you in last nights post, so perhaps you don't quite grasp them, or you prefer not to.
If it's easier, then just go with the opinion of simple fund managers, their job is to make money after all. Oliver Brown of RC Brown's fund had this wonderfully insightful observation. He said, at 50p the risk reward is in our favour, which is why we found this attractive to participate at this price.