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I rarely work on hourly charts. However I would be as delighted as any for an improvement in the SP.
It would be lovely to see a break in the trend and reverse this somewhat depressing long downturn.
I honestly don't know what you have a problem with.
YES IT WORKS IN NOT HARMING THE PATIENT
But what the efficacy yet is unproven as that part of the trial is yet to start. All I am surmising that as the longer the trial takes with ever increasing doses if efficacy was so obviously dramatic the SP would be rising over time, not falling.
This leads ME to conclude that either in fact for whatever reason efficacy is not that good or at least ambiguous or its just taking too long to progress and "people" are selling because they can't see a date of likely return and/or how this will be financed. ie will there still be yet another raise in18- months or so?
These are fundamental investment questions coupled with the fact that AVCT have signally filed to deliver any sort of long term investment return over more than a decade.
If you can't make the connection that time is a crucial factor in investment returns then I don't understand how you make any sort of risk reward calculation.
And btw, better buy back in wyndrum, the hourly chart looks like this is going back up for a bit ;)
So after all that wyndrum, and btw you have contradicted yourself again on what info the market has access to or not and also now pivoted from “the wrapper might be inhibiting dox” to “ the science works but Avacta might be taken private for 100p”, but the question still remains and I’ll paste it back for your convenience:
so, which is it wyndrum? Is the current share price a vote of confidence by investors in the know, or a bunch of clueless opportunists taking advantage of a 50p placing that should be ignored as far as the validity of ava6000 and precision is concerned?
Donkey:
pipeline of radioconjugates and state-of-the-art R&D and manufacturing
facilities
So no comparison to avacta
Gje,
The bottom line is the market has the same info as us. (otherwise its insider trading, so lets park illegal activity that we have no proof of). What the market may have is better access to AVCT people to discuss and question the latest results and musings of AS etc.)
What I think, is the time line has been put back yet again and that the SP peaks you refer to was a belief at the time that progress was being made commercially.
The science works as it should by all accounts in not harming the patients. therefore this stock still has enormous promise. However we are now well into 2024 and although new timelines have been issued, why would anyone, seriously, think they will be met?
The amount of money raised vias the funds that took part is tiny to them, maybe, they have stake just in case this does come good. But for all I know as they had a couple of weeks before we got to get our pile, they may have sold some or all of their holding for a 5-10-15% premium. because since then the SP has fallen.
So is it a sign of confidence or did they just make a quick buck?
As always you have to imo divorce the company from the SP. Just because the science works does not mean PI's will particularly profit. AVCT could get taken private at 100p say, and then go on and get floated at 3000p per share 2 years later. Who knows.
We only profit from the work AVCT does if the SP rises. The outcome of them succeeding and most PI's losing money is a perfectly possible scenario.
The assumption that the SP doesn't matter as long as the science works is nieve imo.
We simply remain in the dark about all aspects until it is revealed to us, but always remember we will be the very, very last to know. and then its too late.
Thats why the risk factor should never be under estimated, even when looks like a sure thing.
DTW: re: terrible game of poker...thought these plcs had highly paid advisors/intermediaries to oil wheels in the city.
Haven't studied the Fusion science but clearly AZN like it. Is it better than AVA6000 or is it still too soon to say? Genuine question and not FUD. Even if better the market could be large enough for both, perhaps for different cancers.
Excellent post gje. Sums up the current situation perfectly.
Of course you are correct, the ‘market’ neither understands nor cares about the science. Its only interest is if it thinks it can make a quick return from its current position.
The inference that it has the inclination or aptitude to take a ‘look under the bonnet’ is laughable.
As others have pointed out AS and the BOD played a terrible game of poker. They basically let everyone around the table see their cards and surprise surprise their bluff was called and the money guys sniffed desperation and offered 50p simply because the odds of a quick return were very likely. NOT because they understood the long term opportunity of PreCision.
i'm not trying to shut down alternative scenarios (although the wrapper inhibiting dox is a bit a far fetched), i was just pointing out that your definition of the market and what it represents is inconsistent, which actually sums up your use of the market as some kind of justification for your sentiment (read: your trading position).
if you look at the "market" back in oct/nov it was trading as high as 166p. so at that point was the market, with all its combined expertise and wisdom, in the know about the potential of what ava6000 could deliver? back in july 23 it was down at 88p. so was the market convinced at that point that ava6000 had no future? go back a bit further feb 23 and it was up at 180p. **** me, does the market know or does it not know, or, and this is more likely, do the swings just represent the oscillations of the trading fraternity until there is more concrete or definitive proof from the trials?
the current sp doesn't necessarily tell us anything about the science, perhaps all it does it reflect the fact that the placing was offered to a bunch of opportunist financiers who were let in at 50p, and the descent to 50p was just those anticipating a placing before any further significant news events. so long as there is sufficient time before the trial completes, the vacuum will be traded and we'll see peaks and troughs.
it is therefore you trying to suggest that the current share price should be taken as a bell weather of the success of the tech or the trial is where i take exception. if the participating funds were dumb and opportunistic, as has been discussed here today, then their opinion is irrelevant. if however they are knowledgeable and they still threw a few millions at avacta, then that would still be hugely significant. no institution with any significant reputation or integrity is going to pour millions down a hole, even if it were at 50p. if precision is gubbins, then it could still end up at 5p.
so, which is it wyndrum? a vote of confidence by investors in the know, or a bunch of clueless opportunists taking advantage of a 50p placing that should be ignored as far as the validity of ava6000 and precision is concerned?
Winne give it a rest. Only your fudding mates are listening
Gje,
you shut down every alternative scenario that might explain the current situation.
The general term of the "market" represents more than one fund or person. It is the collective knowledge of everyone who knows about the company.
If you think in this day and age with the potential gain there is on this company that there arn't some very clued up people constantly monitoring AVCT you are mad. We know there is a reaction to every RNS. That means every RNS is read and digested. Your theory must be it is only some people on this BB that actually understand what is going on and everyone else is wrong, even though they have the same access to the same info as you.
I don't know if dox is being inhibited by the wrapper. I do know the science is complicated I don't know what affects what, by being in contact with it. I don't understand how dox flushes around and through the system. I seem to remember AS saying there is not much recorded data on Dox even though its been in use for 40 years (or something along those lines)
What I do know is that the longer the trial has run the lower the SP has gone. What I do know is that there are a lot smarter people than me pouring over what data is available and we are where we are.
Its possible I am drawing incorrect conclusions, of course it is. But with the history of AVCT and its projections on all of its tech, (LFT BAMS ELISA) failing to deliver and now the SP decline in tandem with the longer the trial goes on accompanied with what SEEMS to be an un-coordinated and changing strategy, then my conclusion is this is not progressing as expected let alone exceeding expectations.
Wyndrum, we already went over the market angle. Remember, the Oliver Brown fund? They freely admitted that they were clueless about the science and were only interested in undercutting the PI's and the current share price.
Dox is being inhibited by the wrapper now is it? 😕 That's a pretty desperate angle, got the intern on the wyndrum account today?
AS - is typically of a AIM CEO ,no regard for small investors, It’s the gravy train brigade !
Green box hmmmm
Wyndrum by any chance?
A bit of negativity perhaps?
Gje, I don't think the platform is the issue. Its whether having delivered the drug to the tumour the wrapper does not make the drug less effective.
At the moment through the chant of "Dox is Dox" the assumption is the wrapper has no effect on how the drug reacts at the tumour.
All I am trying to say that until efficacy is proved, simply not harming people does not make this a commercial success yet.
The bear case is that this far into the trial the market is seemingly not convinced or persuaded that it does.
So much so that no one would appear to want to build a stake, coms from AVCt in actually shouting it from the rooftops is also missing as is any sort of conclusive evidence. That suggest to me, that PI's are ahead of where AVCT really is and are making false assumptions on efficacy already.
Therefore it will all come from the efficacy trial.
But we are not sure when exactly that is likely to be.
Where AS is culpable is forever (seemingly) raising expectation of (in fact a unrealistic) timeline that I think he already knows is false.
46 replies to my thread
A record
Finally made it
If people suffer from 1 or n types of cancer they are all eligible for the same treatment, no? So the market size is not dependent on the number of different types a person happens to suffer from.
Hi GJE. People with 4 different cancers / multiple types, would be a small market, but if all 4 were FAP expressing then AVA6k could be the 'go-to' treatment, especially in elderly people.
What is the small market you are referring to there D-Geeman?
'the post yesterday asking for my posts not to be deleted gained 21 recs'
Wyn, I can think of two options. Either LSE are removing your posts so that the 21 people who want to read your ideas will visit more often and so see more adds.
Or; Watching2 and colleagues (though probably not Apre or DTW theses days) are enjoying a very small taste of power for the first time in their otherwise emasculated lives by trying to silence you.
On another note, having spent a bit of time in A&E with daughter over the last 8 days, I had a conversation with someone whose 80 year old dad has, simultaneously, 4 different types of cancer. Might be a small market but AVA6k could be more use there than some of the more tailored and individual treatments.
Wyndrum, answer this, is the precision platform limited to delivering chemo? A bit of a daft analogy by you there.
Gje, the post yesterday asking for my posts not to be deleted gained 21 recs. possibly the highest of the day. Yet straight away today again a few are simply, although they break no rule of LSE posts, are having them removed.
Its a shame but there you are.
(Also I heard that the Fusion deal is using Radio Active Isotopes to attack tumours to remove the need for chemo treatment. Which has been a theme of mine for a while that AVCT are trying to fine tune the efficiency of a combustion engine while others are developing electric motors.
When AVCT started down this path a decade or more ago there was no alternative. Where will the market be in another 10 years for chemo? Its a race and always has been and time, as I have also banged on about, is a crucial factor that some here laughingly reject with the view that it can take as long as it likes. Well, it can't and the longevity of the teck will be a factor of its value.
Right now we are at such an early stage that these facts are yet to be revealed assuming it does in fact work in reducing tumours without side effects.
Shall we have a sweep stake as to how long this post will last?
That made me raise an eyebrow too.
Surely conifer have something to say about the way things have been run?
Just listened to that Oliver Brown interview - at least he admitted he was pretty clueless regarding the science and bought in primarily as it looked a cheap deal (at PI's expense of course!)! However, what made me really howl was when he said how important the company timelines were to him - as it gave him a datum against which to measure how management were doing - LoL He clearly didn't look back at how Smith has adhered to any previous timelines - or he would have run a mile!! LMAO
‘Errrrr! I can't believe you've only just realised that's why II's love fundraisers so much...for this very reason that's why I was , and still am, hoping that the European Speciality Fund is the likes of Medicxi because they would be in for the long haul.’
Errrrr! No sh.t Sherlock. Why not target all your fundraising at funds that won’t flog the shares at the first opportunity. Or maybe at retail who are more likely in aggregate to hold for longer.
Yes Bella, this can be the only justification for me to have done the raise down at 50p, that is to get specialist funds on board that can open doors. The "Oliver Brown" funds of this world are just leeching off PI's and I sincerely hope that the whole fundraise wasn't comprised of this calibre of fund.