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Dr David Nabarro R4 Today 4/8/20 @8:12-8:20 on mathematical modelling and the virus.
I recall Dr Tedros, back In February or March, giving a list and saying, 'Do it all', much like Dr Nabarro is now.
Dr Nabarro:
* Process of testing, tracing and isolation, that involves a joint effort between public and authorities... Joint action by everyone to stop further spikes and surges from hobbling further opening of society and economy.
* A comprehensive approach to prevent transmission through things like physical distancing, face masks, hygiene, keeping yourself out of the way if you've got symptoms. You need the response capacity of test trace and isolate. You need to care for the people most at risk, because you want to stop mortality and you need to have everybody onside.
* Consistent communication... Level with people. Don't give false hopes. Make it clear that we are all in it together.
* We don't have an alternative and that's the point I want to get across to everybody. This virus isn't going away for the foreseeable future.
It would be interesting to see Dr Nabarro in a prolonged debate with BJ - not that that would ever happen because BJ runs away from debate, by such measures as prorogueing Parliament or just answering different questions to those asked.
I also listened to the interview before Dr Nabarro on R4 Today (4/8/20) with Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths on re-opening schools. From Googling, a link to the paper in the Lancet is:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30250-9/fulltext
It is worth recording Dr Panovska-Griffiths' numbers on Test and Trace. For the week ending 22/07, test and Trace in England 'achieved':
* 81.4% of infected people contacted.
* 81.3% of those contacted reported their contacts.
* 75% of reported contacts were contacted.
So 0.814*0.813*0.75=0.496
or equivalently 49.6% of the contacts of people who tested positive were traced. Not even half and it needs to be 68%, minimum, of contacts of the infected who are traced.
These numbers need to go up on billboards all over the country to highlight that the government's response is not, as it should be, to get local test and trace fully funded, so that doors can be knocked up and down the country, but the usual: evasion.
There need to be questions to MPs.
I also listened to Simon Clarke, Minister of State, Minister for Regional Growth and Local Government, who had the unenviable task of following Drs Panovska-Griffiths and Dr Nabarro on R4 Today.
Unfortunately, Clarke was well down to the truly lamentable standard that I expected:
* Trotting-out the 184,000 people contacted. No, no, no, no: it is the total percentage of people traced that matters, which is only just over 50%, not the minimum of 68%, I thought I heard, that need to be traced.
* Clarke excellently illustrated Nabarro's implied point that: the UK government needs to level with people, rather than obfuscating.
Test, test, test
And a government spokesman does not seem to know about the missing factor of 0.813:
“NHS test and trace is already working – last week over 80% of those testing positive were reached, with over 75% of their contacts reached as well … we have rapidly built, from scratch, the largest diagnostic testing industry in British history. Over 2.6 million people have been tested in just eight weeks and we have the capacity to carry out more than 330,000 tests per day, growing to 500,000 per day by the end of October.”
Perhaps Sir Keir has been reaching the same conclusions:
Starmer says PM has one month to fix coronavirus test-and-trace system
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/aug/04/starmer-says-boris-johnson-has-one-month-to-fix-coronavirus-test-and-trace-system
Four key failings of England's Covid-19 test-and-trace system:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/04/four-key-failings-of-england-covid-19-test-and-trace-system
Scotland did the lockdown easing later, which was a much better idea, as their daily cases show. Hmm... I can't get the daily cases for Scotland on the GOV. UK website! Is this sinister?
Does anyone have the daily cases for Scotland???
My conclusion: Track and Trace in the UK will not work! Awacta's Mass testing solution urgently required to control covid19 and get the schools open in 30 days time!
Test, test, test
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Must learn how to post a clickable link
Tom I live in Glasgow, and yes the Scottish government have handled the situation much better than Boris and co
Throughout lockdown Nicola sturgeon has done a daily lunchtime press conference similar to the Tories
But the difference is she did it herself every day unlike buck passing Boris, she also comes across as genuinely trying to solve the problem and admits to mistakes she may have made, I think she has earned a lot of respect by the people including myself ( I don't like the SNP and I'm against independence )
When asked on Monday about the new 90 min tests her first response was "I need to see the data"
Having said all this she doesn't have the responsibility of the UK balance of health v economy
Oh good it can be clicked on
As they say up in Scotland, absolute pish. Nicola has more time on her hands than Boris because Boris is actually the prime minister of the uk and has lots of other issues to deal with. He has cabinet members who are more than capable of speaking to the public, Sunak for example. Remember Brexit - oh you probably didnt vote for that..
What makes you think i didn't vote for Brexit?
I thought my views were balanced, oh and I'm pleased that you seem happy with the present government I think it's a shambles
'The first minister of Scotland and wales all they have done is wait to see what Boris does then do the same but 3/4 weeks later plus they only have 8 million between the two countries you can’t compare plus is either country was independent now you would be bankrupt especially Scotland as the would of had no money from oil and not a penny from the British government'
Punctuation was developed for a reason.
The above reads like a excerpt from a Vicky Pollard aketch!
I agree, that one reason I stated that I don't support independence
Following Boris , to a point yes but she can answer questions and answer clearly so the public get the message
Hi Vegas22 : Numerous independent counties around the word have handled covid much better than Westminster - easy to print money if you have the levers to do so ( Westminster COVID deficit will never be paid off just written off ) Not really a good argument to use against independence next time round !